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Incorporating Structural Models into Research on the Social Amplification of Risk: Implications for Theory Construction and Decision Making

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  • William J. Burns
  • Paul Slovic
  • Roger E. Kasperson
  • Jeanne X. Kasperson
  • Ortwin Renn
  • Srinivas Emani

Abstract

A comprehensive approach to managing risk must draw on both the descriptive insights of the behavioral sciences and the prescriptive clarity of the management sciences. On the descriptive side, this study develops structural models to explain how the impact upon society of an accident or other unfortunate event is influenced by the physical consequences of the event, perceived risk, media coverage, and public response. Our findings indicate that the media and public response play crucial roles in determining the impact of an unfortunate event. Public response appears to be determined by perceptions that the event was caused by managerial incompetence and is a signal of future risk. On the prescriptive side, we briefly discuss how these findings based upon structural models can be incorporated into a decision‐analytic procedure known as an influence diagram.

Suggested Citation

  • William J. Burns & Paul Slovic & Roger E. Kasperson & Jeanne X. Kasperson & Ortwin Renn & Srinivas Emani, 1993. "Incorporating Structural Models into Research on the Social Amplification of Risk: Implications for Theory Construction and Decision Making," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(6), pages 611-623, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:13:y:1993:i:6:p:611-623
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1993.tb01323.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. William C. Metz, 1996. "Historical Application of a Social Amplification of Risk Model: Economic Impacts of Risk Events at Nuclear Weapons Facilities," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(2), pages 185-193, April.
    2. Marcelo Firpo de Souza Porto & Carlos Machado de Freitas, 1996. "Major Chemical Accidents in Industrializing Countries: The Socio‐Political Amplification of Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(1), pages 19-29, February.
    3. Timothy McDaniels & Lawrence J. Axelrod & Paul Slovic, 1995. "Characterizing Perception of Ecological Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(5), pages 575-588, October.
    4. Potter, Clive & Urquhart, Julie, 2017. "Tree disease and pest epidemics in the Anthropocene: A review of the drivers, impacts and policy responses in the UK," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 61-68.
    5. Cordoves-Sánchez, Minerva & Vallejos-Romero, Arturo, 2019. "Social construction of risk in non-conventional renewable energy: Risk perception as a function of ecosystem services in La Araucanía, Chile," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 261-270.
    6. J. A. Giesecke & W. J. Burns & A. Barrett & E. Bayrak & A. Rose & P. Slovic & M. Suher, 2012. "Assessment of the Regional Economic Impacts of Catastrophic Events: CGE Analysis of Resource Loss and Behavioral Effects of an RDD Attack Scenario," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(4), pages 583-600, April.
    7. Panagiotopoulos, Panos & Barnett, Julie & Bigdeli, Alinaghi Ziaee & Sams, Steven, 2016. "Social media in emergency management: Twitter as a tool for communicating risks to the public," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 86-96.
    8. Christopher D. Wirz & Michael A. Xenos & Dominique Brossard & Dietram Scheufele & Jennifer H. Chung & Luisa Massarani, 2018. "Rethinking Social Amplification of Risk: Social Media and Zika in Three Languages," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(12), pages 2599-2624, December.
    9. Jamleck Osiemo & Ruerd Ruben & Evan Girvetz, 2021. "Farmer Perceptions of Agricultural Risks; Which Risk Attributes Matter Most for Men and Women," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-26, November.
    10. Ortwin Renn & Andreas Klinke, 2013. "A Framework of Adaptive Risk Governance for Urban Planning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(5), pages 1-24, May.
    11. Busby, J.S. & Onggo, B.S.S. & Liu, Y., 2016. "Agent-based computational modelling of social risk responses," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 251(3), pages 1029-1042.
    12. Sudeep Bhatia & Lukasz Walasek & Paul Slovic & Howard Kunreuther, 2021. "The More Who Die, the Less We Care: Evidence from Natural Language Analysis of Online News Articles and Social Media Posts," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(1), pages 179-203, January.
    13. Shuolin Geng & Qi Zhou & Mingjie Li & Dianxing Song & Yanjun Wen, 2021. "Spatial–temporal differences in disaster perception and response among new media users and the influence factors: a case study of the Shouguang Flood in Shandong province," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(2), pages 2241-2262, January.
    14. Heather Rosoff & Richard S. John & Fynnwin Prager, 2012. "Flu, Risks, and Videotape: Escalating Fear and Avoidance," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(4), pages 729-743, April.
    15. Deepa Anagondahalli & Monique Mitchell Turner, 2012. "Predicting Psychological Ripple Effects: The Role of Cultural Identity, In‐Group/Out‐Group Identification, and Attributions of Blame in Crisis Communication," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(4), pages 695-712, April.
    16. Dilshani Sarathchandra & Aaron M. McCright, 2017. "The Effects of Media Coverage of Scientific Retractions on Risk Perceptions," SAGE Open, , vol. 7(2), pages 21582440177, May.
    17. Anja Göritz & David Weiss, 2014. "Behavioral and emotional responses to escalating terrorism threat," Mind & Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, Springer;Fondazione Rosselli, vol. 13(2), pages 285-295, November.
    18. Takashi Kusumi & Rumi Hirayama & Yoshihisa Kashima, 2017. "Risk Perception and Risk Talk: The Case of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Radiation Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(12), pages 2305-2320, December.
    19. William J. Burns & Ellen Peters & Paul Slovic, 2012. "Risk Perception and the Economic Crisis: A Longitudinal Study of the Trajectory of Perceived Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(4), pages 659-677, April.
    20. Christopher Raymond & Gregory Brown, 2011. "Assessing spatial associations between perceptions of landscape value and climate change risk for use in climate change planning," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(3), pages 653-678, February.
    21. Dirk Grasmück & Roland W. Scholz, 2005. "Risk Perception of Heavy Metal Soil Contamination by High‐Exposed and Low‐Exposed Inhabitants: The Role of Knowledge and Emotional Concerns," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(3), pages 611-622, June.
    22. Jinshu Cui & Heather Rosoff & Richard S. John, 2016. "Cumulative Response to Sequences of Terror Attacks Varying in Frequency and Trajectory," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(12), pages 2272-2284, December.
    23. v. Alvensleben, R. & Kafka, C., 1999. "Grundprobleme der Risikokommunikation und ihre Bedeutung für die Land- und Ernährungswirtschaft," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 35.

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