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Financial Panics, the Seasonality of the Nominal Interest Rate, and theFounding of the Fed


  • Miron, Jeffrey A


After the founding of the Fed in 1914, the frequency of financial panics and the size of the seasonal movements in nominal interest ratesboth declined substantially. This paper establishes that the Fed, by carrying out the seasonal open market policy that eliminated the seasonal in nominal interest rates, caused the decrease in the frequency of panics. Since seasonal movements are anticipated and financial panics are probably real events, the results show that an anticipated monetary policy had real effects on the economy. Copyright 1986 by American Economic Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Miron, Jeffrey A, 1986. "Financial Panics, the Seasonality of the Nominal Interest Rate, and theFounding of the Fed," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 125-140, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:76:y:1986:i:1:p:125-40

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Clarke, Darral G & Dolan, Robert J, 1984. "A Simulation Analysis of Alternative Pricing Strategies for Dynamic Environments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(1), pages 179-200, January.
    2. Sanford J. Grossman & Richard E. Kihlstrom & Leonard J. Mirman, 1977. "A Bayesian Approach to the Production of Information and Learning By Doing," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 533-547.
    3. Robert B. Wilson, 1967. "Competitive Bidding with Asymmetric Information," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 13(11), pages 816-820, July.
    4. Milgrom, Paul & Roberts, John, 1986. "Price and Advertising Signals of Product Quality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(4), pages 796-821, August.
    5. Milgrom, Paul R & Weber, Robert J, 1982. "A Theory of Auctions and Competitive Bidding," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1089-1122, September.
    6. Roger B. Myerson, 1981. "Optimal Auction Design," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 6(1), pages 58-73, February.
    7. Nancy L. Stokey, 1981. "Rational Expectations and Durable Goods Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 12(1), pages 112-128, Spring.
    8. William Vickrey, 1961. "Counterspeculation, Auctions, And Competitive Sealed Tenders," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 16(1), pages 8-37, March.
    9. Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1981. "A Theory of Monopoly Pricing Schemes with Demand Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 347-365, June.
    10. A. M. Spence, 1981. "The Learning Curve and Competition," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 12(1), pages 49-70, Spring.
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