Causality relations between foreign direct investment and portfolio investment volatility
Following the liberalization of financial markets, Goldstein and Razin (2006) show that there is an information based trade-off between foreign direct investment and foreign portfolio investment, our paper examines the causality relations between foreign direct investment and volatility of foreign portfolio investment. Utilizing monthly and quarterly data set of Czech Republic, Poland, Russia and Turkey, volatility of portfolio investments, which indicated evidence of ARCH effects for all four countries, have been estimated by best fitting GARCH (p,q) models. Further, potential causality has been examined by Granger (1969), Sims (1972) and Toda and Yamamoto (1995) test methods. Results indicated that, for Russia and Turkey foreign direct investment has a significant cause on portfolio investment volatility. However for Czech Republic and Poland, there is no such significant relationship has been found. Finally further investigation of a possible structural break due to EU membership could not provide such evidence for Czech Republic and Poland in related variables.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alberto Gabriele & Korkut Baratav & Ashok Parikh, 2000. "Instability and Volatility of Capital Flows to Developing Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(8), pages 1031-1056, 08.
- V N Balasubramanyam & M Salisu & David Sapsford., .
"Foreign Direct Investment and Growth in EP and IS Countries,"
ec18/94, Department of Economics, University of Lancaster.
- Balasubramanyam, V N & Salisu, M & Sapsford, David, 1996. "Foreign Direct Investment and Growth in EP and IS Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(434), pages 92-105, January.
- Robert E. Lipsey & Robert C. Feenstra & Carl H. Hahn & George N. Hatsopoulos, 1999.
"The Role of Foreign Direct Investment in International Capital Flows,"
in: International Capital Flows, pages 307-362
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert E. Lipsey, 2000. "The Role of Foreign Direct Investment in International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 7094, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1998.
"Capital Flows and the Behavior of Emerging Market Equity Returns,"
NBER Working Papers
6669, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2000. "Capital Flows and the Behavior of Emerging Market Equity Returns," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 159-194 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert E. Lipsey, 2001. "Foreign Direct Investors in Three Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 8084, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Yamin Ahmad & Pietro Cova & Rodrigo Harrison, 2004. "Foreign Direct Investment versus Portfolio Investment : A Global Games Approach," Working Papers 05-03, UW-Whitewater, Department of Economics.
- Neumann, Rebecca M. & Penl, Ron & Tanku, Altin, 2009. "Volatility of capital flows and financial liberalization: Do specific flows respond differently?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 488-501, June.
- Strazicich, Mark C. & Co, Catherine Y. & Lee, Junsoo, 2001. "Are shocks to foreign investment in developing countries permanent or temporary? : Evidence from panel unit root tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 405-412, March.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990.
"Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?,"
8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2003. "Emerging markets finance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 3-56, February.
- Albuquerque, Rui, 2003.
"The composition of international capital flows: risk sharing through foreign direct investment,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 353-383, December.
- Rui Albuquerque, 2004. "The Composition of International Capital Flows: Risk Sharing Through Foreign Direct Investment," International Finance 0405004, EconWPA.
- Fernando A. Broner & Roberto Rigobon, 2005.
"Why are Capital Flows so Much More Volatile in Emerging Than in Developed Countries?,"
Working Papers Central Bank of Chile
328, Central Bank of Chile.
- Fernando Broner & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "Why are capital flows so much more volatile in emerging than in developed countries?," Economics Working Papers 862, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Paolo Mauro & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2006. "Do Some Forms of Financial Flows Help Protect From Sudden Stops?," IMF Working Papers 06/202, International Monetary Fund.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Sula, Ozan & Willett, Thomas D., 2006. "Reversibility of Different Types of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 384, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ferreira, Miguel A. & Laux, Paul A., 2009. "Portfolio flows, volatility and growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 271-292, March.
- Frank Lichtenberg & Bruno van Pottelsberghe de la Potterie, 1996. "International R&D Spillovers: A Re-Examination," NBER Working Papers 5668, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
- Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P., 1999. "Hot money, accounting labels and the permanence of capital flows to developing countries: an empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 337-364, August.
- Chuhan, Punam & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Popper, Helen, 1996. "International capital flows : do short-term investment and direct investment differ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1669, The World Bank.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:34352. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.