IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/blg/msudev/v17y2025i1p1-16n1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Uncertainty of Economic Policy: A Hinder for Financial Sustainability?

Author

Listed:
  • QIN Meng

    (School of Marxism, Qingdao University, China)

  • SU Chi-Wei

    (School of Economics, Qingdao University, China)

Abstract

Creating a favorable and robust national financial ecosystem represents a pivotal objective for China during its new phase of development. This article employs principal component analysis to quantify trends in financial vulnerability, condition, stability, pressure, and development, collectively serving as indicators of financial market performance. Following this, the article delves deeper into the influence of uncertainty in economic policy on financial market operations by leveraging the SVAR model. The research concludes that an increase in economic policy uncertainty (EPU) initially exacerbates the fragility of the financial market, causing significant volatility and impacting its stability negatively. However, China’s financial market possesses a self-regulation mechanism that gradually mitigates and transforms this impact over time. Notably, a positive shock to EPU can alleviate financial pressure in the short term by temporarily suppressing the vitality of the market. In addition, the overall rise in EPU hinders financial development. In summary, despite the market’s self-regulatory capacity, heightened EPU still hinders financial sustainability in China. Based on this research, it is recommended that China should strengthen policy coordination and predictability to promote financial sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • QIN Meng & SU Chi-Wei, 2025. "The Uncertainty of Economic Policy: A Hinder for Financial Sustainability?," Management of Sustainable Development, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 17(1), pages 1-16, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:blg:msudev:v:17:y:2025:i:1:p:1-16:n:1
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.54989/msd-2025-0001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://msdjournal.org/wp-content/uploads/vol17issue1-1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/https://doi.org/10.54989/msd-2025-0001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huang, Yun & Luk, Paul, 2020. "Measuring economic policy uncertainty in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    2. Kayani, Umar & Hassan, M. Kabir & Dejan, Austin & Khan, Maaz & Nawaz, Farrukh, 2024. "Assessment of Economic Policy Uncertainty spillovers: A cross-border analysis of global and BRIC economies," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    3. Liu, Bojing, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty, cross-border capital inflows and credit asset allocation risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    4. Choi, Young Mok & Park, Kunsu, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and dividend policy: Insight from private firms," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    5. Xue, Xingnan & Wang, Liwen & Hu, Nan, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate social responsibility disclosure similarity: Evidence from China," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(5).
    6. Xiao, Lingmin & Zhao, Liang & Zhu, Qianyu, 2024. "Host country economic policy uncertainty, trade openness and Chinese enterprise overseas investment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    7. Dinkneh Gebre Borojo & Jiang Yushi & Miao Miao & Luo Xiao, 2024. "The impacts of economic policy uncertainty, energy consumption, sustainable innovation, and quality of governance on green growth in emerging economies," Energy & Environment, , vol. 35(7), pages 3647-3672, November.
    8. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    9. Gaies, Brahim & Nakhli, Mohamed Sahbi & Sahut, Jean-Michel, 2024. "Unravelling the complex interactions between sentiment of uncertainty and foreign capital flows: Evidence from Brazil and South Korea," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    10. Liu, Ding & Sun, Weihong & Xu, Liao & Zhang, Xuan, 2023. "Time-frequency relationship between economic policy uncertainty and financial cycle in China: Evidence from wavelet analysis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    11. Wu, Jie & Rasool, Zeeshan & Ali, Sajid & Nazar, Raima, 2024. "Between policy swings and financial shockwaves: Asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty on financial stability in high-volatility nations," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    12. Xingnan Xue & Liwen Wang & Nan Hu, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate social responsibility disclosure similarity: Evidence from China," Post-Print hal-04699217, HAL.
    13. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 10(Win), pages 2-16.
    14. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Sensoy, Ahmet & Eraslan, Veysel & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "Sensitivity of US equity returns to economic policy uncertainty and investor sentiments," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    15. Che, Ming & Zhu, Zixiang & Li, Yujia, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty: Different roles in China's financial cycle," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    16. Haishan Yu & Wendai Lv & Huan Liu & Jingda Wang, 2022. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Bank Credits: Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(11), pages 3023-3033, September.
    17. Mohammed, Kamel Si & Obeid, Hassan & Oueslati, Karim & Kaabia, Olfa, 2023. "Investor sentiments, economic policy uncertainty, US interest rates, and financial assets: Examining their interdependence over time," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    18. Si, Deng-Kui & Wan, Shen & Li, Xiao-Lin & Kong, Dongmin, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and shadow banking: Firm-level evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    19. Tang, Ping & Yang, Wenshuai, 2024. "Monetary policy uncertainty and financial risk: The mediating role of corporate investment," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    20. Mo, Tingcheng & Huangmei, Mengmeng & Chen, Hong & Li, Kelong & Ouyang, Yingbo, 2024. "Tail risk spillovers between economic policy uncertainty and stock market returns: Evidence based on TENET approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).
    21. Yu, Xiaojian & Li, Zhiyong & Lien, Donald & Hu, Jinqiang, 2024. "Identifying crucial financial markets in the flows of cross-border capital – evidence from China's financial risk network," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    22. Cheng, Tingting & Qiu, Liping & Lv, Wenya & Yang, Xuanbin & Yang, Gang, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and municipal corporate bonds credit spreads: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).
    23. Duan, Yuejiao & Fan, Xiaoyun & Wang, Yu, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank systemic risk: A cross-country analysis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    24. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Hirs-Garzon, Jorge & Uribe, Jorge M., 2024. "US uncertainty shocks on real and financial markets: A multi-country perspective," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(3).
    25. Bouri, Elie & Gök, Remzi & Gemi̇ci̇, Eray & Kara, Erkan, 2024. "Do geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty, and oil implied volatility drive assets across quantiles and time-horizons?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 137-154.
    26. repec:hal:journl:hal-04699553 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Zhou, Ling & Chen, Peng, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate cooperative research and development: Empirical evidence based on Chinese patent data," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lu, Yiming & Wang, Yu, 2023. "Bank liquidity hoarding and bank systemic risk: The moderating effect of economic policy uncertainty," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    2. Fadekemi Chidinma Adeloye & Olayinka Olawoyin & Chinaemerem Daniel, 2024. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Financial Markets in the United State," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 8(6), pages 998-1016, June.
    3. Hu, Debao & Lu, Jingming & Zhao, Sibo, 2024. "Does trade policy uncertainty increase commercial banks’ risk-taking? Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 532-551.
    4. Ren, Meixu & Zhao, Jingmei & Ke, Konglin & Li, Yidong, 2023. "Bank homogeneity and risk-taking: Evidence from China," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 142-154.
    5. Deng, Wei & Gao, Lei & Xing, Fei & Yang, Ming, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty, bank deposits, and liability structure," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    6. Gazi I. Kara & Youngsuk Yook, 2023. "Policy Uncertainty and Bank Mortgage Credit," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(4), pages 783-823, June.
    7. Han, Haozhe & Wang, Xingjian, 2023. "Monetary policy uncertainty and corporate cash holdings: Evidence from China," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    8. Zhu, Zhaobo & Lin, Hang & Chen, Min & Han, Peiwen, 2023. "The spillover effect of economic policy uncertainty: Evidence from analyst behaviors in Hong Kong," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    9. Si, Deng-Kui & Zhuang, Jiali & Ge, Xinyu & Yu, Yong, 2024. "The nexus between trade policy uncertainty and corporate financialization: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    10. Luo, Deming & Jiang, Sainan & Yao, Zhongwei, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty and mutual fund risk shifting," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    11. Tian, Jing & Li, Haiwei & You, Pin, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty, bank loan, and corporate innovation," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    12. Chuanzhen Li & Liang Zhao & Yiwen Zhang, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and cash dividend policy: evidence from China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-17, December.
    13. Tanveer Bagh & Abdul Waheed & Muhammad Asif Khan & Mirza Muhammad Naseer, 2023. "Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on China’s Stock Price Index: A Comprehensive Analysis Using Wavelet Coherence Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, December.
    14. Yingce Yang & Junjie Guo & Ruihong He, 2023. "The Asymmetric Impact of the Oil Price and Disaggregate Shocks on Economic Policy Uncertainty: Evidence From China," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, June.
    15. Yang, Xite & Zhang, Qin & Liu, Haiyue & Liu, Zihan & Tao, Qiufan & Lai, Yongzeng & Huang, Linya, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty, macroeconomic shocks, and systemic risk: Evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(PA).
    16. El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Mansi, Sattar & Wang, He (Helen), 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty, institutional environments, and corporate cash holdings," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    17. Jiang, Yonghong & Wu, Lanxin & Tian, Gengyu & Nie, He, 2021. "Do cryptocurrencies hedge against EPU and the equity market volatility during COVID-19? – New evidence from quantile coherency analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    18. Yao, Shouyu & Pan, Yuying & Sensoy, Ahmet & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Cheng, Feiyang, 2021. "Green credit policy and firm performance: What we learn from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    19. Wang, Xiaoxiao, 2024. "Bank affiliation and lottery-like characteristics of mutual funds," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 944-963.
    20. Liu, Zhenhua & Zhang, Huiying & Ding, Zhihua & Lv, Tao & Wang, Xu & Wang, Deqing, 2022. "When are the effects of economic policy uncertainty on oil–stock correlations larger? Evidence from a regime-switching analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:blg:msudev:v:17:y:2025:i:1:p:1-16:n:1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Camelia Oprean-Stan (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feulbro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.