IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/worlde/v37y2014i3p456-480.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Intraregional Spillovers in South America: Is Brazil Systemic After All?

Author

Listed:
  • Gustavo Adler
  • Sebastián Sosa

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="twec12094-abs-0001"> The high business cycle correlation between Brazil (the large neighbour in South America) and other countries in the region has been a frequent source of concern for policymakers, as it has been viewed as evidence of the large influence of the former country on its neighbours. This paper studies the importance of such influence, documenting trade linkages over the last two decades and quantifying spillover effects in a vector autoregression setting. We find that, after controlling for common external factors, spillovers from Brazil are only relevant for Southern Cone economies (especially Mercosur's members) and Peru, but not for the rest of South America, and these findings are consistent with the extent of trade linkages between these countries. We find also that spillovers can take two different forms: the transmission of Brazil-specific shocks and the amplification of global shocks – through their impact on Brazil's output. Finally, we also find suggestive evidence that depreciations of Brazil's currency may not have significant impact on output of its key trading partners.

Suggested Citation

  • Gustavo Adler & Sebastián Sosa, 2014. "Intraregional Spillovers in South America: Is Brazil Systemic After All?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 456-480, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:37:y:2014:i:3:p:456-480
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/twec.2014.37.issue-3
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Sebastian Sosa & Gustavo Adler, 2011. "Commodity Price Cycles: The Perils of Mismanaging the Boom," IMF Working Papers 2011/283, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Mr. Andrew J Swiston, 2010. "Spillovers to Central America in Light of the Crisis: What a Difference a Year Makes," IMF Working Papers 2010/035, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Mr. Markus Rodlauer & Mr. Alfred Schipke, 2005. "Central America: Global Integration and Regional Cooperation," IMF Occasional Papers 2005/005, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Mr. Andrew J Swiston, 2008. "Spillovers Across NAFTA," IMF Working Papers 2008/003, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Adler, Gustavo & Djigbenou, Marie-Louise & Sosa, Sebastian, 2016. "Global financial shocks and foreign asset repatriation: Do local investors play a stabilizing role?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 8-28.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2014. "Uruguay: Staff Report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2014/006, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Gustavo Adler & Mr. Sebastian Sosa, 2013. "External Conditions and Debt Sustainability in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2013/027, International Monetary Fund.
    4. José Luis Nolazco & Patricia Lengua-Lafosse & Nikita Céspedes Reynaga, 2020. "Contribución de los choques externos en el crecimiento económico del Perú: un modelo semi-estructural," Capítulos de libros, in: Nikita Céspedes Reynaga & Norman V. Loayza & Nelson R. Ramírez Rondán (ed.), Crecimiento económico en el Perú: causas y consecuencias, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 74-117, Universidad de San Martín de Porres.
    5. Knarik Ayvazyan & Ms. Teresa Daban Sanchez, 2015. "Spillovers from Global and Regional Shocks to Armenia," IMF Working Papers 2015/241, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Angela Ifeanyi Ukemenam & Babatunde Opadeji & Tuwe Soro Garbobiya & Augustine Ujunwa, 2018. "Macroeconomic Effects of Exogenous Oil Price Shock in Nigeria: Persistent or Transitory," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(11), pages 1-28, November.
    7. Araújo, Inácio Fernandes de & Perobelli, Fernando Salgueiro & Faria, Weslem Rodrigues, 2021. "Regional and global patterns of participation in value chains: Evidence from Brazil," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 154-171.
    8. Olivier Basdevant & Andrew Jonelis & Borislava Mircheva & Slavi Slavov, 2015. "The Mystery of Missing Real Spillovers in Southern Africa: Some Facts and Possible Explanations," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(3), pages 371-389, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mr. Andrew J Swiston, 2010. "Spillovers to Central America in Light of the Crisis: What a Difference a Year Makes," IMF Working Papers 2010/035, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Jorge Fornero & Markus Kirchner & Andrés Yany, 2015. "Terms of Trade Shocks and Investment in Commodity-Exporting Economies," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Caputo & Roberto Chang (ed.),Commodity Prices and Macroeconomic Policy, edition 1, volume 22, chapter 5, pages 135-193, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2008:i:21:p:1-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Mr. Sebastian Sosa & Mr. Paul Cashin, 2009. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in the Caribbean: The Role of Climatic and External Shocks," IMF Working Papers 2009/159, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Jean Louis, Rosmy & Brown, Ryan & Balli, Faruk, 2011. "On the feasibility of monetary union: Does it make sense to look for shocks symmetry across countries when none of the countries constitutes an optimum currency area?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2701-2718.
    6. Juan Carlos Moreno Brid & Esteban Pérez Caldentey, 2010. "Trade and Economic Growth: A Latin American Perspective on Rhetoric and Reality," Chapters, in: Mark Setterfield (ed.), Handbook of Alternative Theories of Economic Growth, chapter 20, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Jean-François Hoarau, 2008. "Testing PPP for Central American real exchange rates. Evidence from new panel data stationary tests with structural breaks," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(21), pages 1-5.
    8. Luis Jácome & Eric Parrado, 2006. "The Quest for Price Stability in Central America and the Dominican Republic," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 390, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Abdulrahman K Al-Mansouri & Ms. Claudia H Dziobek, 2006. "Providing official Statistics for the Common Market and Monetary Union in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries: A Case for "Gulfstat"," IMF Working Papers 2006/038, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Mr. Andrew J Swiston, 2011. "Official Dollarization As a Monetary Regime: Its Effectson El Salvador," IMF Working Papers 2011/129, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Snudden, Stephen, 2016. "Cyclical fiscal rules for oil-exporting countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 473-483.
    12. Calzada Olvera, Beatriz & Foster-McGregor, Neil, 2018. "What is the potential of natural resource based industrialisation in Latin America? An Input-Output analysis of the extractive sectors," MERIT Working Papers 2018-015, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    13. Ms. Yan M Sun, 2011. "From West to East: Estimating External Spillovers to Australia and New Zealand," IMF Working Papers 2011/120, International Monetary Fund.
    14. West, James & Schandl, Heinz, 2013. "Material use and material efficiency in Latin America and the Caribbean," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 19-27.
    15. Bank for International Settlements, 2007. "Evolving banking systems in Latin America and the Caribbean: challenges and implications for monetary policy and financial stability," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 33.
    16. Caruso, Alberto, 2018. "Nowcasting with the help of foreign indicators: The case of Mexico," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 160-168.
    17. Ignacio Lozano & Ligia Alba Melo B. & Jorge Enrique Ramos F., 2012. "Flujos de capital y política fiscal en las economías emergentes de América Latina," Borradores de Economia 9439, Banco de la Republica.
    18. Alberto Caruso, 2015. "Nowcasting Mexican GDP," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2015-40, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    19. Olivier Basdevant & Andrew Jonelis & Borislava Mircheva & Slavi Slavov, 2015. "The Mystery of Missing Real Spillovers in Southern Africa: Some Facts and Possible Explanations," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(3), pages 371-389, September.
    20. Abalkina, Anna, 2006. "Роль Многосторонних Банков Развития В Содействии Экономической Интеграции [The Role of Multilateral Development Banks in Promoting Economic Integration]," MPRA Paper 49967, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2006.
    21. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "New Zealand: Selected Issues Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 2011/103, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:37:y:2014:i:3:p:456-480. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0378-5920 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.