IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bde/wpaper/1028.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Mitigating the pro-cyclicality of Basel II

Author

Listed:
  • Rafael Repullo

    () (CEMFI)

  • Jesús Saurina

    () (Banco de España)

  • Carlos Trucharte

    () (Banco de España)

Abstract

Policy discussions on the recent financial crisis feature widespread calls to address the pro-cyclical effects of regulation. The main concern is that the new risk-sensitive bank capital regulation (Basel II) may amplify business cycle fluctuations. This paper compares the leading alternative procedures that have been proposed to mitigate this problem. We estimate a model of the probabilities of default (PDs) of Spanish firms during the period 1987 2008, and use the estimated PDs to compute the corresponding series of Basel II capital requirements per unit of loans. These requirements move significantly along the business cycle, ranging from 7.6% (in 2006) to 11.9% (in 1993). The comparison of the different procedures is based on the criterion of minimizing the root mean square deviations of each adjusted series with respect to the Hodrick-Prescott trend of the original series. The results show that the best procedures are either to smooth the input of the Basel II formula by using through the cycle PDs or to smooth the output with a multiplier based on GDP growth. Our discussion concludes that the latter is better in terms of simplicity, transparency, and consistency with banks’ risk pricing and risk management systems. For the portfolio of Spanish commercial and industrial loans and a 45% loss given default (LGD), the multiplier would amount to a 6.5% surcharge for each standard deviation in GDP growth. The surcharge would be significantly higher with cyclically-varying LGDs.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafael Repullo & Jesús Saurina & Carlos Trucharte, 2010. "Mitigating the pro-cyclicality of Basel II," Working Papers 1028, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1028
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/10/Fic/dt1028e.pdf
    File Function: First version, October 2010
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric, 1995. "Bank regulation and the credit crunch," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 679-692, June.
    2. Daniel Perez & Vicente Salas-Fumas & Jesus Saurina, 2008. "Earnings and Capital Management in Alternative Loan Loss Provision Regulatory Regimes," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 423-445.
    3. Repullo, Rafael & Suarez, Javier, 2008. "The Procyclical Effects of Basel II," CEPR Discussion Papers 6862, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Hancock, Diana & Wilcox, James A., 1994. "Bank Capital, Loan Delinquencies, and Real Estate Lending," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 121-146, June.
    5. Gabriel Jiménez & Jose A. Lopez & Jesus Saurina, 2009. "Empirical Analysis of Corporate Credit Lines," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(12), pages 5069-5098, December.
    6. Engelmann, Bernd & Hayden, Evelyn & Tasche, Dirk, 2003. "Measuring the Discriminative Power of Rating Systems," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2003,01, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Gambacorta, Leonardo & Mistrulli, Paolo Emilio, 2004. "Does bank capital affect lending behavior?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 436-457, October.
    8. Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
    9. Hancock, Diana & Laing, Andrew J. & Wilcox, James A., 1995. "Bank capital shocks: Dynamic effects on securities, loans, and capital," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 661-677, June.
    10. Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric, 1995. "The Capital Crunch: Neither a Borrower nor a Lender Be," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 625-638, August.
    11. Ahmed, Anwer S. & Takeda, Carolyn & Thomas, Shawn, 1999. "Bank loan loss provisions: a reexamination of capital management, earnings management and signaling effects," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-25, November.
    12. Jesús Saurina & Carlos Trucharte, 2007. "An Assessment of Basel II Procyclicality in Mortgage Portfolios," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 32(1), pages 81-101, October.
    13. Gordy, Michael B. & Howells, Bradley, 2006. "Procyclicality in Basel II: Can we treat the disease without killing the patient?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 395-417, July.
    14. Edward I. Altman & Brooks Brady & Andrea Resti & Andrea Sironi, 2005. "The Link between Default and Recovery Rates: Theory, Empirical Evidence, and Implications," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(6), pages 2203-2228, November.
    15. Scholes, Myron S & Wilson, G Peter & Wolfson, Mark A, 1990. "Tax Planning, Regulatory Capital Planning, and Financial Reporting Strategy for Commercial Banks," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 625-650.
    16. Berger, Allen N. & Udell, Gregory F., 1990. "Collateral, loan quality and bank risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 21-42, January.
    17. Sudheer Chava & Robert A. Jarrow, 2008. "Bankruptcy Prediction with Industry Effects," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 21, pages 517-549, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    18. Jimenez, Gabriel & Salas, Vicente & Saurina, Jesus, 2006. "Determinants of collateral," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 255-281, August.
    19. Ben S. Bernanke & Cara S. Lown, 1991. "The Credit Crunch," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 205-248.
    20. Kim, Myung-Sun & Kross, William, 1998. "The impact of the 1989 change in bank capital standards on loan loss provisions and loan write-offs," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 69-99, February.
    21. Moyer, Susan E., 1990. "Capital adequacy ratio regulations and accounting choices in commercial banks," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 123-154, July.
    22. Jon Frye, 2000. "Depressing recoveries," Emerging Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Oct.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Borio, Claudio & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 236-251.
    2. Jesús Saurina & Carlos Trucharte, 2007. "An Assessment of Basel II Procyclicality in Mortgage Portfolios," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 32(1), pages 81-101, October.
    3. Aristei, David & Gallo, Manuela, 2019. "Loan loss provisioning by Italian banks: Managerial discretion, relationship banking, functional distance and bank risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 238-256.
    4. Markus Behn & Rainer Haselmann & Paul Wachtel, 2016. "Procyclical Capital Regulation and Lending," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(2), pages 919-956, April.
    5. Athanasoglou, Panayiotis P. & Daniilidis, Ioannis & Delis, Manthos D., 2014. "Bank procyclicality and output: Issues and policies," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 58-83.
    6. Berger, Allen N. & Herring, Richard J. & Szego, Giorgio P., 1995. "The role of capital in financial institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 393-430, June.
    7. Martinez-Miera, David & Repullo, Rafael, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Macroprudential Policy, and Financial Stability," CEPR Discussion Papers 13530, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Gombola, Michael J. & Ho, Amy Yueh-Fang & Huang, Chin-Chuan, 2016. "The effect of leverage and liquidity on earnings and capital management: Evidence from U.S. commercial banks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 35-58.
    9. Ines Drumond, 2009. "Bank Capital Requirements, Business Cycle Fluctuations And The Basel Accords: A Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 798-830, December.
    10. Elnahass, Marwa & Izzeldin, Marwan & Steele, Gerald, 2018. "Capital and Earnings Management: Evidence from Alternative Banking Business Models," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 20-32.
    11. N. Berger, Allen & F. Udell, Gregory, 1998. "The economics of small business finance: The roles of private equity and debt markets in the financial growth cycle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(6-8), pages 613-673, August.
    12. Bouvatier, Vincent & Lepetit, Laetitia, 2008. "Banks' procyclical behavior: Does provisioning matter?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 513-526, December.
    13. David VanHoose, 2008. "Bank Capital Regulation, Economic Stability, and Monetary Policy: What Does the Academic Literature Tell Us?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 36(1), pages 1-14, March.
    14. Laurent Maurin & Mervi Toivanen, 2015. "Risk, capital buffers and bank lending: The adjustment of euro area banks," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 1(3), pages 113-129, May.
    15. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Matteo Alessi & Stefano Di Colli & Juan Sergio Lopez, 2015. "Loan Loss Provision: Some Empirical Evidence for Italian Banks," CESifo Working Paper Series 5253, CESifo.
    16. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José-Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2017. "Macroprudential Policy, Countercyclical Bank Capital Buffers, and Credit Supply: Evidence from the Spanish Dynamic Provisioning Experiments," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(6), pages 2126-2177.
    17. Hitoshi Inoue, 2010. "Capital Adequacy Requirements And The Financial Accelerator Caused By Bank Capital," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 61(3), pages 382-407, September.
    18. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José‐Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2014. "Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy: What Do Twenty‐Three Million Bank Loans Say About the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk‐Taking?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(2), pages 463-505, March.
    19. Wahyoe Soedarmono & Amine Tarazi & Agusman Agusman & Gary S. Monroe & Dominic Gasbarro, 2016. "Loan Loss Provisions and Lending Behavior of Banks: Do Information Sharing and Borrower Legal Rights Matter?," Working Papers hal-01316717, HAL.
    20. Francis, William B. & Osborne, Matthew, 2012. "Capital requirements and bank behavior in the UK: Are there lessons for international capital standards?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 803-816.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank capital regulation; Basel II; Pro-cyclicality; Business cycles; Credit crunch;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1028. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (María Beiro. Electronic Dissemination of Information Unit. Research Department. Banco de España). General contact details of provider: http://www.bde.es/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.