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The Procyclical Effects of Basel II

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  • Repullo, Rafael
  • Suarez, Javier

Abstract

We analyze the cyclical effects of moving from risk-insensitive (Basel I) to risk-sensitive (Basel II) capital requirements in the context of a dynamic equilibrium model of relationship lending in which banks are unable to access the equity markets every period. Banks anticipate that shocks to their earnings as well as the cyclical position of the economy can impair their capacity to lend in the future and, as a precaution, hold capital buffers. We find that the new regulation changes the behavior of these buffers from countercyclical to procyclical. Yet, the higher buffers maintained in expansions are insufficient to prevent a significant contraction in the supply of credit at the arrival of a recession. We show that cyclical adjustments in the confidence level behind Basel II can reduce its procyclical effects without compromising banks' long-run solvency.

Suggested Citation

  • Repullo, Rafael & Suarez, Javier, 2008. "The Procyclical Effects of Basel II," CEPR Discussion Papers 6862, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6862
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Luc Laeven & Harry Huizinga, 2009. "Accounting discretion of banks during a financial crisis," IMF Working Papers 09/207, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Sreejata Banerjee, 2012. "Basel I and Basel II Compliance: Issues for Banks in India," Working Papers 2012-068, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    3. Xi Yang, 2016. "Predicting bank failures: The leverage versus the risk-weighted capital ratio," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-15, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    4. Silvia Sgherri & Bertrand Gruss, 2009. "The Volatility Costs of Procyclical Lending Standards; An Assessment Using a Dsge Model," IMF Working Papers 09/35, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Di Nicolo, G. & Gamba, A. & Lucchetta, M., 2011. "Capital Regulation, Liquidity Requirements and Taxation in a Dynamic Model of Banking," Discussion Paper 2011-090, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    6. Paolo Angelini & Sergio Nicoletti-Altimari & Ignazio Visco, 2012. "Macroprudential, microprudential and monetary policies: conflicts, complementarities and trade-offs," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 140, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Claudio Borio, 2011. "Rediscovering the Macroeconomic Roots of Financial Stability Policy: Journey, Challenges, and a Way Forward," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 87-117, December.
    8. Manthos D. Delis & Iftekhar Hasan & Pantelis Kazakis, 2014. "Bank Regulations and Income Inequality: Empirical Evidence," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(5), pages 1811-1846.
    9. Escaith, Hubert & Gonguet, Fabien, 2009. "International Trade and Real Transmission Channels of Financial Shocks in Globalized Production Networks," MPRA Paper 15558, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Athanasoglou, Panayiotis P. & Daniilidis, Ioannis & Delis, Manthos D., 2014. "Bank procyclicality and output: Issues and policies," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 58-83.
    11. Ines Drumond, 2009. "Bank Capital Requirements, Business Cycle Fluctuations And The Basel Accords: A Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 798-830, December.
    12. Shigenori Shiratsuka, & Wataru Takahashi & Kozo Ueda, 2009. "2009 International Conference "Financial System and Monetary Policy Implementation" Summary," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 27(1), pages 1-18, November.
    13. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Pereira da Silva, Luiz A., 2012. "Cyclical effects of bank capital requirements with imperfect credit markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 43-56.
    14. repec:eee:ejores:v:264:y:2018:i:2:p:707-716 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Brandtner, Mario & Kürsten, Wolfgang, 2015. "Decision making with Expected Shortfall and spectral risk measures: The problem of comparative risk aversion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 268-280.
    16. Rafael Repullo & Jesús Saurina & Carlos Trucharte, 2010. "Mitigating the pro-cyclicality of Basel II," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 25, pages 659-702, October.
    17. Maria Kasselaki & Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2014. "Financial soundness indicators and financial crisis episodes," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 623-669, November.
    18. Ines Drumond & José Jorge, 2009. "Basel II Capital Requirements, Firms' Heterogeneity, and the Business Cycle," FEP Working Papers 307, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    19. Chiara Pederzoli & Costanza Torricelli & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2010. "Rating systems, procyclicality and Basel II: an evaluation in a general equilibrium framework," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 33-49, January.
    20. Paolo Angelini & Stefano Neri & Fabio Panetta, 2011. "Monetary and macroprudential policies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 801, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    21. Max Bruche & Javier Suarez, 2009. "The Macroeconomics of Money Market Freezes," Working Papers wp2009_0901, CEMFI.
    22. Paolo Angelini & Sergio Nicoletti-Altimari & Ignazio Visco, 2013. "Macroprudential, Microprudential and Monetary Policies: Policies, Complementarities and Trade-Offs," Chapters,in: Stability of the Financial System, chapter 22 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    23. Vaubel Roland, 2009. "Lehren aus der Finanzkrise: Rolle des Staates und internationale Dimension / Lessons from the financial crisis: The role of government and the international dimension," ORDO. Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, De Gruyter, vol. 60(1), pages 247-266, January.
    24. Luc Laeven, 2011. "Banking Crises: A Review," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 17-40, December.
    25. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:68:n:3:a:3 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    banking regulation; Basel II; business cycles; capital requirements; credit crunch; loan defaults; relationship banking;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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