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An assessment of Basel II procyclicality in mortgage portfolios


  • Jesús Saurina

    () (Banco de España)

  • Carlos Trucharte

    () (Banco de España)


In this paper we develop a probability of default (PD) model for mortgage loans, taking advantage of the Spanish Credit Register, a comprehensive database on loan characteristics and credit quality. From that model, we calculate different types of PDs: point in time, PIT, through the cycle, TTC, average across the cycle and acyclical. Then, we compare capital requirements coming from the different Basel II approaches. We show that minimum regulatory capital under Basel II can be very sensitive to the risk measurement methodology employed. Thus, the procyclicality of regulatory capital requirements under Basel II is an open question, depending on the way internal rating systems are implemented and their output is utilised. We focus on the mortgage portfolio since it is one of the most under researched areas regarding the impact of Basel II and because it is one of the most important banks’ portfolios.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesús Saurina & Carlos Trucharte, 2007. "An assessment of Basel II procyclicality in mortgage portfolios," Working Papers 0712, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0712

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Evžen Kocenda & Martin Vojtek, 2011. "Default Predictors in Retail Credit Scoring: Evidence from Czech Banking Data," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(6), pages 80-98, November.
    2. Rafael Repullo & Javier Suarez, 2013. "The Procyclical Effects of Bank Capital Regulation," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 452-490.
    3. Rafael Repullo & Jesús Saurina & Carlos Trucharte, 2010. "Mitigating the pro-cyclicality of Basel II," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 25, pages 659-702, October.
    4. Borio, Claudio & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 236-251.
    5. Repullo, Rafael & Suarez, Javier, 2008. "The Procyclical Effects of Basel II," CEPR Discussion Papers 6862, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:68:n:3:a:3 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Alexandra Schindele & Andrea Szczesny, 2016. "The impact of Basel II on the debt costs of German SMEs," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 86(3), pages 197-227, April.
    8. Rainer Baule & Christian Tallau, 2016. "Revisiting Basel risk weights: cross-sectional risk sensitivity and cyclicality," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 86(8), pages 905-931, November.
    9. Santiago Fernández de Lis & Alicia García-Herrero, 2012. "Dynamic Provisioning: Some Lessons from Experience," Chapters,in: Implications of the Global Financial Crisis for Financial Reform and Regulation in Asia, chapter 4 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. repec:eee:finsta:v:33:y:2017:i:c:p:133-149 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Markus Behn & Rainer Haselmann & Paul Wachtel, 2016. "Procyclical Capital Regulation and Lending," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(2), pages 919-956, April.
    12. Silvia Sgherri & Bertrand Gruss, 2009. "The Volatility Costs of Procyclical Lending Standards; An Assessment Using a Dsge Model," IMF Working Papers 09/35, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Correa, Arnildo & Marins, Jaqueline & Neves, Myrian & da Silva, Antonio Carlos, 2014. "Credit Default and Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation of Brazilian Retail Loans," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 68(3), September.
    14. Santiago Fernández de Lis & Alicia Garcia-Herrero, 2010. "Dynamic Provisioning : Some Lessons from Existing Experiences," Finance Working Papers 21882, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    15. Calabrese, Raffaella, 2014. "Downturn Loss Given Default: Mixture distribution estimation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(1), pages 271-277.
    16. Bellotti, Tony & Crook, Jonathan, 2012. "Loss given default models incorporating macroeconomic variables for credit cards," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 171-182.
    17. Valerie Revest & Alessandro Sapio, 2016. "The creation function of a junior listing venue: An empirical test on the Alternative Investment Market," LEM Papers Series 2016/32, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.

    More about this item


    procyclicality; basel ii; rating systems; mortgages;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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