IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

An assessment of Basel II procyclicality in mortgage portfolios

Author Info

  • Jesús Saurina

    ()

    (Banco de España)

  • Carlos Trucharte

    ()

    (Banco de España)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    In this paper we develop a probability of default (PD) model for mortgage loans, taking advantage of the Spanish Credit Register, a comprehensive database on loan characteristics and credit quality. From that model, we calculate different types of PDs: point in time, PIT, through the cycle, TTC, average across the cycle and acyclical. Then, we compare capital requirements coming from the different Basel II approaches. We show that minimum regulatory capital under Basel II can be very sensitive to the risk measurement methodology employed. Thus, the procyclicality of regulatory capital requirements under Basel II is an open question, depending on the way internal rating systems are implemented and their output is utilised. We focus on the mortgage portfolio since it is one of the most under researched areas regarding the impact of Basel II and because it is one of the most important banks’ portfolios.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/07/Fic/dt0712e.pdf
    File Function: First version, May 2007
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by Banco de Espa�a in its series Banco de Espa�a Working Papers with number 0712.

    as
    in new window

    Length: 33 pages
    Date of creation: May 2007
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0712
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.bde.es/Email:


    More information through EDIRC

    Keywords: procyclicality; basel ii; rating systems; mortgages;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric, 1995. "The Capital Crunch: Neither a Borrower nor a Lender Be," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 625-38, August.
    2. Sevestre, Patrick & Martinez-Pages, Jorge & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Ehrmann, Michael & Worms, Andreas, 2001. "Financial systems and the role of banks in monetary policy transmission in the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,18, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    3. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann & Miguel Segoviano, 2004. "Bank Regulation and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 591-615, Winter.
    4. C. A.E. Goodhart, 2005. "Financial Regulation, Credit Risk and Financial Stability," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 192(1), pages 118-127, April.
    5. Dietsch, Michel & Petey, Joel, 2002. "The credit risk in SME loans portfolios: Modeling issues, pricing, and capital requirements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 303-322, March.
    6. Eva Catarineu-Rabell & Patricia Jackson & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2003. "Procyclicality and the new Basel Accord–banks’ choice of loan rating system," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24863, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Gambacorta, Leonardo & Mistrulli, Paolo Emilio, 2004. "Does bank capital affect lending behavior?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 436-457, October.
    8. Berger, Allen N & Udell, Gregory F, 1994. "Do Risk-Based Capital Allocate Bank Credit and Cause a "Credit Crunch"' in the United States?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(3), pages 585-628, August.
    9. Jimenez, Gabriel & Salas, Vicente & Saurina, Jesus, 2006. "Determinants of collateral," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 255-281, August.
    10. Linda Allen & Anthony Saunders, 2004. "Incorporating Systemic Influences Into Risk Measurements: A Survey of the Literature," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 161-191, October.
    11. Tor Jacobson & Jesper Lindé & Kasper Roszbach, 2005. "Credit Risk Versus Capital Requirements under Basel II: Are SME Loans and Retail Credit Really Different?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 43-75, October.
    12. Javier Delgado & Vicente Salas-Fumás & Jesús Saurina, 2006. "The joint size and ownership specialization in banks' lending," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0606, Banco de Espa�a.
    13. Edward I. Altman & Brooks Brady & Andrea Resti & Andrea Sironi, 2005. "The Link between Default and Recovery Rates: Theory, Empirical Evidence, and Implications," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(6), pages 2203-2228, November.
    14. Claudio Borio & Craig Furfine & Philip Lowe, 2001. "Procyclicality of the financial system and financial stability: issues and policy options," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 1-57 Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Jimenez, Gabriel & Saurina, Jesus, 2004. "Collateral, type of lender and relationship banking as determinants of credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 2191-2212, September.
    16. Gordy, Michael B. & Howells, Bradley, 2006. "Procyclicality in Basel II: Can we treat the disease without killing the patient?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 395-417, July.
    17. Anil Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 2004. "Cyclical implications of the Basel II capital standards," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 18-31.
    18. Pennacchi, George G., 2005. "Risk-based capital standards, deposit insurance, and procyclicality," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 432-465, October.
    19. Calem, Paul S. & LaCour-Little, Michael, 2004. "Risk-based capital requirements for mortgage loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 647-672, March.
    20. Amato, Jeffery D. & Furfine, Craig H., 2004. "Are credit ratings procyclical?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2641-2677, November.
    21. Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2004. "Collateral, type of lender and relationship banking as determinants of credit risk," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0414, Banco de Espa�a.
    22. Mojon, Benoît & Kashyap, Anil K. & Angeloni, Ignazio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 2002. "Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area : Where Do We Stand?," Working Paper Series 0114, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    as in new window


    Cited by:

    1. Evžen Kocenda & Martin Vojtek, 2009. "Default Predictors and Credit Scoring Models for Retail Banking," CESifo Working Paper Series 2862, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. Behn, Markus & Haselmann, Rainer & Wachtel, Paul, 2014. "Pro-cyclical capital regulation and lending," Discussion Papers 32/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    3. Repullo, R. & Suarez, J., 2010. "The Procyclical Effects of Bank Capital Regulation," Discussion Paper 2010-29S, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    4. Santiago Fernández de Lis & Alicia Garcia-Herrero, 2010. "Dynamic Provisioning : Some Lessons from Existing Experiences," Finance Working Papers 21882, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    5. Silvia Sgherri & Bertrand Gruss, 2009. "The Volatility Costs of Procyclical Lending Standards; An Assessment Using a Dsge Model," IMF Working Papers 09/35, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Borio, Claudio & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 236-251.
    7. Repullo, Rafael & Suarez, Javier, 2008. "The Procyclical Effects of Basel II," CEPR Discussion Papers 6862, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Arnildo Da Silva Correa & Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins & Myrian Beatriz Eiras Das Neves & Antonio Carlos Magalhes Da Silva, 2014. "Credit Default And Business Cycles: Anempirical Investigation Of Brazilian Retail Loans," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 028, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    9. Repullo, Rafael & Saurina, Jesús & Trucharte, Carlos, 2009. "Mitigating the Procyclicality of Basel II," CEPR Discussion Papers 7382, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Access and download statistics

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0712. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mar�a Beiro. Electronic Dissemination of Information Unit. Research Department. Banco de Espa�a)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.