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Modelling heterogeneity and dynamics in the volatility of individual wages

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  • Laura Hospido

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

In this paper I consider a model for the heterogeneity and dynamics of the conditional mean and the conditional variance of standarized individual wages. In particular, I propose a dynamic panel data model with individual effects both in the mean and in a conditional ARCH type variance function. I posit a distribution for earning shocks and I build a modified likelihood function for estimation and inference in a fixed-T context. Using a newly developed bias-corrected likelihood approach makes it possible to reduce the estimation bias to a term of order 1 over T squared. The small sample performance of bias corrected estimators is investigated in a Monte Carlo simulation study. The simulation results show that the bias of the maximum likelihood estimator is substantially corrected for designs that are broadly calibrated to the PSID. The empirical analysis is conducted on data drawn from the 1968-1993 PSID. I find that it is important to account for individual unobserved heterogeneity and dynamics in the variance, and that the latter is driven by job mobility. I also find that the model explains the non-normality observed in logwage data.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Hospido, 2007. "Modelling heterogeneity and dynamics in the volatility of individual wages," Working Papers 0738, Banco de España.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0738
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    7. Laura Hospido, 2012. "Estimating Nonlinear Models with Multiple Fixed Effects: A Computational Note," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(5), pages 760-775, October.
    8. Manuel Arellano & Stéphane Bonhomme, 2009. "Robust Priors in Nonlinear Panel Data Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(2), pages 489-536, March.
    9. Andini, Corrado, 2014. "Persistence Bias and Schooling Returns," IZA Discussion Papers 8143, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Sasaki, Shusaku, 2019. "Majority size and conformity behavior in charitable giving: Field evidence from a donation-based crowdfunding platform in Japan," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 36-51.
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    12. Jiaying Gu & Roger Koenker, 2014. "Unobserved heterogeneity in income dynamics: an empirical Bayes perspective," CeMMAP working papers CWP43/14, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    13. Max Bruche, 2009. "Bankruptcy Codes, Liquidation Timing, and Debt Valuation," Working Papers wp2009_0902, CEMFI.
    14. Serrano, Roberto & Vohra, Rajiv, 2010. "Multiplicity of mixed equilibria in mechanisms: A unified approach to exact and approximate implementation," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(5), pages 775-785, September.
    15. Magnac, Thierry & Roux, Sébastien, 2021. "Heterogeneity and wage inequalities over the life cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    16. Magnac, Thierry & Pistolesi, Nicolas & Roux, Sébastien, 2013. "Post schooling human capital investments and the life cycle variance of earnings," IDEI Working Papers 765, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    17. Joan Llull, 2008. "The Impact of Immigration on Productivity," Working Papers wp2008_0802, CEMFI.
    18. Irene Botosaru, 2017. "Identifying Distributions in a Panel Model with Heteroskedasticity: An Application to Earnings Volatility," Discussion Papers dp17-11, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    19. Manuel Arellano & Lars Peter Hansen & Enrique Sentana, 2009. "Underidentification? (Resumen)," Working Papers wp2009_0905, CEMFI.
    20. Hospido, Laura, 2015. "Wage dynamics in the presence of unobserved individual and job heterogeneity," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 81-93.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Panel data; dynamic nonlinear models; conditional heteroskedasticity; fixed effects; bias reduction; individual wages;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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