Model Selection in the Presence of Incidental Parameters
This paper considers model selection in nonlinear panel data models where incidental parameters or large-dimensional nuisance parameters are present. Primary interest typically centres on selecting a model that best approximates the underlying structure involving parameters that are common within the panel after concentrating out the incidental parameters. It is well known that conventional model selection procedures are often inconsistent in panel models and this can be so even without nuisance parameters (Han et al, 2012). Modifications are then needed to achieve consistency. New model selection information criteria are developed here that use either the Kullback-Leibler information criterion based on the profile likelihood or the Bayes factor based on the integrated likelihood with the robust prior of Arellano and Bonhomme (2009). These model selection criteria impose heavier penalties than those associated with standard information criteria such as AIC and BIC. The additional penalty, which is data-dependent, properly reflects the model complexity arising from the presence of incidental parameters. A particular example is studied in detail involving lag order selection in dynamic panel models with fixed individual effects. The new criteria are shown to control for over/under-selection probabilities in these models and lead to consistent order selection criteria.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2013|
|Publication status:||Published in Journal of Econometrics (October 2015), 188(2): 474-489|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA|
Phone: (203) 432-3702
Fax: (203) 432-6167
Web page: http://cowles.yale.edu/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lee, Yoonseok, 2012. "Bias in dynamic panel models under time series misspecification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(1), pages 54-60.
- Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
- Guyon, Xavier & Yao, Jian-feng, 1999. "On the Underfitting and Overfitting Sets of Models Chosen by Order Selection Criteria," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 221-249, August.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1994. "Asymptotics for Semiparametric Econometric Models via Stochastic Equicontinuity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(1), pages 43-72, January.
- Newey, Whitney K, 1994.
"The Asymptotic Variance of Semiparametric Estimators,"
Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1349-1382, November.
- Newey, W.K., 1989. "The Asymptotic Variance Of Semiparametric Estimotors," Papers 346, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Newey, W.K., 1991. "The Asymptotic Variance of Semiparametric Estimators," Working papers 583, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Lee, Yoonseok, 2014. "Nonparametric Estimation Of Dynamic Panel Models With Fixed Effects," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(06), pages 1315-1347, December.
- Maddala, G S, 1971. "The Use of Variance Components Models in Pooling Cross Section and Time Series Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(2), pages 341-358, March.
- Yuhong Yang, 2005. "Can the strengths of AIC and BIC be shared? A conflict between model indentification and regression estimation," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 92(4), pages 937-950, December.
- Jinyong Hahn & Whitney Newey, 2004. "Jackknife and Analytical Bias Reduction for Nonlinear Panel Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1295-1319, 07.
- Jinyong Hahn & Whitney K. Newey, 2003. "Jackknife and analytical bias reduction for nonlinear panel models," CeMMAP working papers CWP17/03, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Claeskens,Gerda & Hjort,Nils Lid, 2008. "Model Selection and Model Averaging," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521852258, December.
- N. Sartori, 2003. "Modified profile likelihoods in models with stratum nuisance parameters," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 90(3), pages 533-549, September.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Chirok Han, 2014. "True Limit Distributions of the Anderson-Hsiao IV Estimators in Panel Autoregression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1963, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Lee, Lung-fei & Yu, Jihai, 2014. "Efficient GMM estimation of spatial dynamic panel data models with fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 180(2), pages 174-197.
- Jinyong Hahn & Guido Kuersteiner, 2002. "Asymptotically Unbiased Inference for a Dynamic Panel Model with Fixed Effects when Both "n" and "T" Are Large," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1639-1657, July.
- Manuel Arellano & Stéphane Bonhomme, 2009. "Robust Priors in Nonlinear Panel Data Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(2), pages 489-536, 03.
- Manuel Arellano & Stéphane Bonhomme, 2007. "Robust priors in nonlinear panel data models," CeMMAP working papers CWP07/07, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Hahn, Jinyong & Kuersteiner, Guido, 2011. "Bias Reduction For Dynamic Nonlinear Panel Models With Fixed Effects," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(06), pages 1152-1191, December.
- Bester, C. Alan & Hansen, Christian, 2009. "A Penalty Function Approach to Bias Reduction in Nonlinear Panel Models with Fixed Effects," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(2), pages 131-148.
- Manuel Arellano & Jinyong Hahn, 2006. "A Likelihood-Based Approximate Solution To The Incidental Parameter Problem In Dynamic Nonlinear Models With Multiple Effects," Working Papers wp2006_0613, CEMFI.
- Tony Lancaster, 2002. "Orthogonal Parameters and Panel Data," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 647-666.
- White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)