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Minimizing Sensitivity to Model Misspecification

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  • St'ephane Bonhomme
  • Martin Weidner

Abstract

We propose a framework for estimation and inference when the model may be misspecified. We rely on a local asymptotic approach where the degree of misspecification is indexed by the sample size. We construct estimators whose mean squared error is minimax in a neighborhood of the reference model, based on one-step adjustments. In addition, we provide confidence intervals that contain the true parameter under local misspecification. As a tool to interpret the degree of misspecification, we map it to the local power of a specification test of the reference model. Our approach allows for systematic sensitivity analysis when the parameter of interest may be partially or irregularly identified. As illustrations, we study three applications: an empirical analysis of the impact of conditional cash transfers in Mexico where misspecification stems from the presence of stigma effects of the program, a cross-sectional binary choice model where the error distribution is misspecified, and a dynamic panel data binary choice model where the number of time periods is small and the distribution of individual effects is misspecified.

Suggested Citation

  • St'ephane Bonhomme & Martin Weidner, 2018. "Minimizing Sensitivity to Model Misspecification," Papers 1807.02161, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1807.02161
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    4. Jiaming Mao & Zhesheng Zheng, 2020. "Structural Regularization," Papers 2004.12601, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2020.
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    8. Stéphane Bonhomme & Martin Weidner, 2019. "Posterior average effects," CeMMAP working papers CWP43/19, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    9. Isaiah Andrews & Matthew Gentzkow & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2020. "On the Informativeness of Descriptive Statistics for Structural Estimates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(6), pages 2231-2258, November.
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    11. Pietro Emilio Spini, 2021. "Robustness, Heterogeneous Treatment Effects and Covariate Shifts," Papers 2112.09259, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    12. Timothy B. Armstrong & Michal Kolesár, 2021. "Sensitivity analysis using approximate moment condition models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(1), pages 77-108, January.
    13. Matthew A. Masten & Alexandre Poirier, 2021. "Salvaging Falsified Instrumental Variable Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(3), pages 1449-1469, May.
    14. Kfir Eliaz & Ran Spiegler & Yair Weiss, 2019. "Cheating with (Recursive) Models," Papers 1911.01251, arXiv.org.
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    16. Maximilian Blesch & Philipp Eisenhauer, 2021. "Robust decision-making under risk and ambiguity," Papers 2104.12573, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
    17. Ashesh Rambachan & Jonathan Roth, 2020. "Design-Based Uncertainty for Quasi-Experiments," Papers 2008.00602, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
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    19. Raffaella Giacomini & Toru Kitagawa & Matthew Read, 2021. "Robust Bayesian Analysis for Econometrics," Working Paper Series WP-2021-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    20. Ruoyao Shi, 2021. "An Averaging Estimator for Two Step M Estimation in Semiparametric Models," Working Papers 202105, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
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    23. Gospodinov, Nikolay & Maasoumi, Esfandiar, 2021. "Generalized aggregation of misspecified models: With an application to asset pricing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 451-467.

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