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Managing Large-Scale Capital Inflows: The Case of the Czech Republic, Poland and Romania

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  • Ms. Leonor Keller
  • Mr. Ibrahim Chowdhury

Abstract

Many emerging market economies have in the recent past experienced a surge in capital inflows that may threaten their economic and financial stability. The IMF in early 2011 proposed a framework intended to guide Fund advice to policymakers on how to best respond to such inflows, including both macroeconomic instruments and so-called capital flow management measures (CFMs). The paper applies this framework to three countries that have experienced elevated capital inflows after the onset of the 2008 global financial crisis - the Czech Republic, Poland, and Romania. It finds that the evaluation of the macroeconomic criteria as prescribed by the framework does not support the use of CFMs, but instead advocates macroeconomic policies as the first line of defense against large-scale capital inflows. This finding is by and large consistent with the IMF’s policy advice given to country authorities in the context of surveillance missions.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Leonor Keller & Mr. Ibrahim Chowdhury, 2012. "Managing Large-Scale Capital Inflows: The Case of the Czech Republic, Poland and Romania," IMF Working Papers 2012/138, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/138
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mr. Martin D Kaufman & Mr. Steven T Phillips & Mr. Rodrigo O. Valdes & Nicolas Eyzaguirre, 2011. "Managing Abundance to Avoid a Bust in Latin America," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2011/007, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Jonathan David Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Karl F Habermeier & Marcos d Chamon & Mahvash S Qureshi & Dennis B. S. Reinhardt, 2010. "Capital Inflows; The Role of Controls," IMF Staff Position Notes 2010/04, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Mahmood Pradhan & Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan & Reza Baqir & Mr. Geoffrey M Heenan & Sylwia Nowak & Ceyda Oner & Mr. Sanjaya P Panth, 2011. "Policy Responses to Capital Flows in Emerging Markets," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2011/010, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Jonathan D. Ostry, 2012. "Managing Capital Flows: What Tools to Use?," Asian Development Review (ADR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 29(01), pages 82-88, June.
    5. Mahmood Pradhan & Ravi Balakrishnan & Reza Baqir & Geoffrey M Heenan & Sylwia Nowak & Ceyda Oner & Sanjaya P Panth, 2011. "Policy Responses to Capital Flows in Emerging Markets," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 11/10, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Mr. Marcos d Chamon & Miss Mahvash S Qureshi & Dennis B. S. Reinhardt & Mr. Atish R. Ghosh & Mr. Karl F Habermeier & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, 2010. "Capital Inflows: The Role of Controls," IMF Staff Position Notes 2010/004, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Mr. Karl F Habermeier & Annamaria Kokenyne & Chikako Baba, 2011. "The Effectiveness of Capital Controls and Prudential Policies in Managing Large Inflows," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2011/014, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Calderón, César & Kubota, Megumi, 2019. "Ride the Wild Surf: An investigation of the drivers of surges in capital inflows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 112-136.
    2. Jinjarak, Yothin & Noy, Ilan & Zheng, Huanhuan, 2013. "Capital controls in Brazil – Stemming a tide with a signal?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2938-2952.
    3. M. Golovnin YU. & М. Головнин Ю., 2017. "Денежно-Кредитная Политика Стран Центральной И Восточной Европы В Условиях Глобализации: Режимы И Инструменты // The Monetary Policy In Countries Of Central And Eastern Europe In The Globalization Con," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 21(1), pages 78-86.
    4. Doytch, Nadia, 2021. "Do FDI inflows to Eastern Europe and Central Asia respond to the business cycle? A sector level analysis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    5. M. Golovnin Yu. & S. Nikitina A. & М. Головнин Ю. & С. Никитина А., 2018. "Современные тенденции динамики международных потоков капитала // Current Trends in the Dynamics of International Capital Flows," Мир новой экономики // The world of new economy, Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Governtment оf The Russian Federation, vol. 12(4), pages 46-56.
    6. Jinjarak, Yothin & Noy, Ilan & Zheng, Huanhuan, 2013. "Capital controls in Brazil – Stemming a tide with a signal?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2938-2952.
    7. Jinjarak, Yothin & Noy, Ilan & Zheng, Huanhuan, 2013. "What Lessons Can Asia Draw from Capital Controls in Brazil during 2008–2012?," ADBI Working Papers 423, Asian Development Bank Institute.

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