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Современные тенденции динамики международных потоков капитала // Current Trends in the Dynamics of International Capital Flows

Author

Listed:
  • M. Golovnin Yu.

    (Institute of Economics RAS)

  • S. Nikitina A.

    (Institute of Economics RAS)

  • М. Головнин Ю.

    (Институт экономики РАН)

  • С. Никитина А.

    (Институт экономики РАН)

Abstract

Global economic and financial crisis 2007–2009 had a devastating effect on international capital flows. An assessment of their dynamics over the past decade shows that in certain fields (for example, the volume of international debt securities circulating) the pre-crisis indicators were exceeded, in a number of areas they are close to the pre-crisis level (foreign direct investments, total capitalization of the world stock market), international bank lending remains significantly behind the pre-crisis values. In the leading world economies cross-border capital flows relative to GDP significantly decreased compared to 2007. Global imbalances between savings and investments continued to grow, though their structure by countries changed, and now developed countries play a key role in them. In the structure of international capital flows the main shift occurred from the other to portfolio investment, with a slight increase in the role of direct investment. The “quantitative easing” policy in the USA and euro zone has had a significant impact on international capital flows. With generally positive trends in international capital movements in 2017–2018, new threats to their developments are beginning to emerge, primarily in countries with emerging markets. Глобальный экономический и финансовый кризис 2007–2009 гг. оказал разрушительное воздействие на международные потоки капитала. Оценка их динамики в последнее десятилетие свидетельствует, что по отдельным направлениям (например, объем обращающихся международных долговых ценных бумаг) предкризисные показатели были превышены, по ряду направлений они были почти достигнуты (потоки прямых иностранных инвестиций, совокупная капитализация мирового фондового рынка). Международное банковское кредитование пока существенно отстает от предкризисных значений. В ведущих мировых экономиках трансграничные потоки капитала относительно ВВП существенно снизились по сравнению с 2007 г. При возобновлении нарастания глобальных дисбалансов между сбережениями и инвестициями изменилась их структура по странам, и ключевую роль в них теперь играют развитые страны. В структуре международных потоков капитала основной сдвиг произошел от прочих к портфельным инвестициям при некотором увеличении роли прямых инвестиций. Существенное влияние на международные потоки капитала оказала проводившаяся в США и проводимая в настоящее время в еврозоне политика «количественного смягчения». В целом при положительных тенденциях в международном движении капитала в 2017–2018 гг. начинают проявляться новые угрозы для их развития, прежде всего в странах с формирующимися рынками.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Golovnin Yu. & S. Nikitina A. & М. Головнин Ю. & С. Никитина А., 2018. "Современные тенденции динамики международных потоков капитала // Current Trends in the Dynamics of International Capital Flows," Мир новой экономики // The world of new economy, Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Governtment оf The Russian Federation, vol. 12(4), pages 46-56.
    • Handle: RePEc:scn:wnewec:y:2018:i:4:p:46-56
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Matthieu Bussière & Julia Schmidt & Natacha Valla, 2018. "International Financial Flows in the New Normal: Key Patterns (and Why We Should Care)," Financial and Monetary Policy Studies, in: Laurent Ferrara & Ignacio Hernando & Daniela Marconi (ed.), International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis, pages 249-269, Springer.
    2. Ms. Leonor Keller & Mr. Ibrahim Chowdhury, 2012. "Managing Large-Scale Capital Inflows: The Case of the Czech Republic, Poland and Romania," IMF Working Papers 2012/138, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Mr. Anton Korinek, 2011. "The New Economics of Capital Controls Imposed for Prudential Reasons+L4888," IMF Working Papers 2011/298, International Monetary Fund.
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