IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jimfin/v94y2019icp97-115.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A key currency view of global imbalances

Author

Listed:
  • Ito, Hiro
  • McCauley, Robert N.

Abstract

This study divides the world into currency zones according to the co-movement of each currency with the key currencies. The dollar zone groups economies that produce well over half of global GDP. The euro zone now includes almost all of Europe and some commodity producers, but remains less than half the size of the dollar zone. The dollar zone share has shown striking stability despite big shifts across zones over time. These include the demise of the sterling zone and the expansion of the DM/euro from northwestern Europe to Europe and beyond.

Suggested Citation

  • Ito, Hiro & McCauley, Robert N., 2019. "A key currency view of global imbalances," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 97-115.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:94:y:2019:i:c:p:97-115
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.01.013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560619300567
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.01.013?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yongsung Chang & Sun-Bin Kim & Jaewoo Lee, 2013. "Accounting for Global Dispersion of Current Accounts," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(3), pages 477-496, July.
    2. Ito, Takatoshi, 2017. "A new financial order in Asia: Will a RMB bloc emerge?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 232-257.
    3. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2001. "The external wealth of nations: measures of foreign assets and liabilities for industrial and developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 263-294, December.
    4. Bénétrix, Agustin S. & Lane, Philip R. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2015. "International currency exposures, valuation effects and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 98-109.
    5. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2005. "Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 67-146.
    6. Hyun Song Shin, 2017. "Breaking free of the triple coincidence in international finance," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Statistical implications of the new financial landscape, volume 43, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M Reinhart & Kenneth S Rogoff, 2019. "Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor will Hold?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(2), pages 599-646.
    8. Robert N McCauley & Chang Shu, 2018. "Recent RMB policy and currency co-movements," BIS Working Papers 727, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Kawai, Masahiro & Akiyama, Shigeru, 2000. "Implications of the currency crisis for exchange rate arrangements in emerging East Asia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2502, The World Bank.
    10. Gita Gopinath & Jeremy C Stein, 2021. "Banking, Trade, and the Making of a Dominant Currency," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(2), pages 783-830.
    11. Kawai, Masahiro & Akiyama, Shigeru, 1998. "The Role of Nominal Anchor Currencies in Exchange Rate Arrangements," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 334-387, December.
    12. Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti & Ms. Natalia T. Tamirisa & Mr. Francesco Strobbe, 2010. "Bilateral Financial Linkages and Global Imbalances: a View on The Eve of the Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2010/257, International Monetary Fund.
    13. repec:fip:fedgsq:y:2005:i:mar10 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Robert N McCauley & Tracy Chan, 2014. "Currency movements drive reserve composition," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    15. Fidora, Michael & Schmitz, Martin, 2018. "Factors driving the recent improvement in the euro area’s international investment position," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 3.
    16. Ito, Hiroyuki & McCauley, Robert N. & Chan, Tracy, 2015. "Currency composition of reserves, trade invoicing and currency movements," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 16-29.
    17. Boris Hofmann & Elod Takáts, 2015. "International monetary spillovers," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    18. Robert N. McCauley, 1997. "The euro and the dollar," BIS Working Papers 50, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Drummond,Ian M., 2008. "The Floating Pound and the Sterling Area," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521068567.
    20. Schenk,Catherine R., 2013. "The Decline of Sterling," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107612990.
    21. Benassy-Quere, Agnes & Coeure, Benoit & Mignon, Valerie, 2006. "On the identification of de facto currency pegs," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 112-127, March.
    22. Mr. Camilo E Tovar Mora & Tania Mohd Nor, 2018. "Reserve Currency Blocs: A Changing International Monetary System?," IMF Working Papers 2018/020, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Cédric Tille, 2003. "The impact of exchange rate movements on U.S. foreign debt," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(Jan).
    24. Marcel Fratzscher & Arnaud Mehl, 2014. "China's Dominance Hypothesis and the Emergence of a Tri‐polar Global Currency System," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(581), pages 1343-1370, December.
    25. Gruber, Joseph W. & Kamin, Steven B., 2007. "Explaining the global pattern of current account imbalances," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 500-522, June.
    26. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
    27. Linda S. Goldberg, 2011. "The international role of the dollar: Does it matter if this changes?," Staff Reports 522, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    28. Barry Eichengreen & Domenico Lombardi, 2017. "RMBI or RMBR? Is the Renminbi Destined to Become a Global or Regional Currency?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 16(1), pages 35-59, Winter/Sp.
    29. Haldane, A G & Hall, S G, 1991. "Sterling's Relationship with the Dollar and the Deutschemark: 1976-89," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(406), pages 436-443, May.
    30. Subramanian Arvind & Kessler Martin, 2013. "The Renminbi Bloc is Here: Asia Down, Rest of the World to Go?," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 49-94, August.
    31. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat, 2011. "Global imbalances and the financial crisis: Link or no link?," BIS Working Papers 346, Bank for International Settlements.
    32. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2004. "The revived Bretton Woods system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 307-313.
    33. Robert N McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2009. "Dollar appreciation in 2008: safe haven, carry trades, dollar shortage and overhedging," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    34. Paul Krugman, 2007. "Will there be a dollar crisis? [‘Current account fact and fiction’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 22(51), pages 436-467.
    35. John Singleton & Catherine R. Schenk, 2015. "The shift from sterling to the dollar, 1965–76: evidence from Australia and New Zealand," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 68(4), pages 1154-1176, November.
    36. Ito, Hiro & Kawai, Masahiro, 2016. "Trade invoicing in major currencies in the 1970s–1990s: Lessons for renminbi internationalization," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 123-145.
    37. Mr. Philip R. Lane & Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti, 2017. "International Financial Integration in the Aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2017/115, International Monetary Fund.
    38. Ma, Guonan & McCauley, Robert N., 2011. "The evolving renminbi regime and implications for Asian currency stability," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-38, March.
    39. Boris Hofmann & Bilyana Bogdanova, 2012. "Taylor rules and monetary policy: a global "Great Deviation"?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    40. Schenk, Catherine R., 2009. "The evolution of the Hong Kong currency board during global exchange rate instability, 1967–19731," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 129-156, October.
    41. Kawai, Masahiro & Pontines, Victor, 2016. "Is there really a renminbi bloc in Asia?: A modified Frankel–Wei approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 72-97.
    42. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Helene Rey & Nicolas Govillot, 2010. "Exorbitant Privilege and Exorbitant Duty," IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-20, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    43. Ben S. Bernanke, 2005. "The global saving glut and the U.S. current account deficit," Speech 77, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    44. Hamid Faruqee & Jaewoo Lee, 2009. "Global Dispersion of Current Accounts: Is the Universe Expanding?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(3), pages 574-595, August.
    45. repec:zbw:bofitp:2017_010 is not listed on IDEAS
    46. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, "undated". "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
    47. Gita Gopinath & Jeremy C Stein, 0. "Banking, Trade, and the Making of a Dominant Currency," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 136(2), pages 783-830.
    48. Emanuel Kohlscheen & Fernando Avalos & Andreas Schrimpf, 2017. "When the Walk Is Not Random: Commodity Prices and Exchange Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(2), pages 121-158, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ito, Hiro & McCauley, Robert N., 2020. "Currency composition of foreign exchange reserves," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    2. ITO Hiroyuki & KAWAI Masahiro, 2021. "The Global Monetary System and the Use of Local Currencies in ASEAN+3," Discussion papers 21019, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. Radostin Neykov & Caroline Robert, 2021. "The Role of the Euro in the Eastern Partnership Countries," European Economy - Discussion Papers 138, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    4. Sobański Konrad, 2019. "‘Dark matter’ in the external sector of the United States," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 5(2), pages 86-108, June.
    5. Schroth, Josef, 2021. "Macroprudential policy with capital buffers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 296-311.
    6. Roger Vicquéry, 2022. "The Rise and Fall of Global Currencies over Two Centuries," Working papers 882, Banque de France.
    7. Bekaert, Geert & Mehl, Arnaud, 2019. "On the global financial market integration “swoosh” and the trilemma," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 227-245.
    8. Ahmed, Rashad, 2021. "Monetary policy spillovers under intermediate exchange rate regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    9. Asa Malmstrom Rognes & Catherine R. Schenk, 2023. "One country, two currencies: The adoption of the Hong Kong currency board, 1983," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(2), pages 477-497, May.
    10. Hiro Ito & Cesar M. Rodriguez, 2020. "Clamoring for greenbacks: Explaining the resurgence of the U.S. dollar in international debt," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 370-391, December.
    11. Dr. Fabian Fink & Dr. Lukas Frei & Dr. Oliver Gloede, 2020. "Short-term determinants of bilateral exchange rates: A decomposition model for the Swiss franc," Working Papers 2020-21, Swiss National Bank.
    12. Robert N. McCauley, 2020. "The Global Domain of the Dollar: Eight Questions," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 48(4), pages 421-429, December.
    13. Ahmed, Rashad, 2020. "Monetary Policy Spillovers under Intermediate Exchange Rate Regimes," MPRA Paper 98852, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Arslanalp, Serkan & Eichengreen, Barry & Simpson-Bell, Chima, 2022. "The stealth erosion of dollar dominance and the rise of nontraditional reserve currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    15. Liu, Tao & Wang, Xiaosong & Woo, Wing Thye, 2022. "The rise of Renminbi in Asia: Evidence from Network Analysis and SWIFT dataset," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    16. ITO Hiroyuki & XU Ying, 2023. "Dollar Dominance in Cross-border Bank Loans and Its Response to Uncertainties," Discussion papers 23028, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    17. Shekhar Hari Kumar & Vimal Balasubramaniam & Ila Patnaik & Ajay Shah, 2020. "Who cares about the Renminbi?," 2020 Papers pha1373, Job Market Papers.
    18. Vanessa Olakemi Dovonou, 2023. "Trilemma revisited with dollar dominance in trade and finance," Working Papers 2023.05, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    19. Fink, Fabian & Frei, Lukas & Gloede, Oliver, 2022. "Global risk sentiment and the Swiss franc: A time-varying daily factor decomposition model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    20. Lawrence L. Kreicher & Robert N. McCauley, 2021. "Managing the Dollar Over Its Cycles," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 49(2), pages 143-158, June.
    21. Alina Iancu & Gareth Anderson & Sakai Ando & Ethan Boswell & Andrea Gamba & Shushanik Hakobyan & Lusine Lusinyan & Neil Meads & Yiqun Wu, 2022. "Reserve Currencies in an Evolving International Monetary System," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(5), pages 879-915, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ito, Hiro & McCauley, Robert N., 2020. "Currency composition of foreign exchange reserves," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    2. ITO Hiroyuki & KAWAI Masahiro, 2021. "The Global Monetary System and the Use of Local Currencies in ASEAN+3," Discussion papers 21019, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. Ito, Hiroyuki & McCauley, Robert N. & Chan, Tracy, 2015. "Currency composition of reserves, trade invoicing and currency movements," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 16-29.
    4. Robert N McCauley & Chang Shu, 2018. "Recent RMB policy and currency co-movements," BIS Working Papers 727, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Michael D. Bordo & Robert N. McCauley, 2019. "Triffin: Dilemma or Myth?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(4), pages 824-851, December.
    6. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Rey, Hélène, 2014. "External Adjustment, Global Imbalances, Valuation Effects," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 585-645, Elsevier.
    7. Hiro Ito & Robert N. McCauley, 2022. "A Disaster Under-(Re)Insurance Puzzle: Home Bias in Disaster Risk-Bearing," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(4), pages 735-772, December.
    8. McCauley, Robert N. & Bénétrix, Agustín S. & McGuire, Patrick M. & von Peter, Goetz, 2019. "Financial deglobalisation in banking?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 116-131.
    9. Robert N McCauley & Tracy Chan, 2014. "Currency movements drive reserve composition," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    10. Hiro Ito & Cesar M. Rodriguez, 2020. "Clamoring for greenbacks: Explaining the resurgence of the U.S. dollar in international debt," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 370-391, December.
    11. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey & Maxime Sauzet, 2019. "The International Monetary and Financial System," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 859-893, August.
    12. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat, 2015. "Capital flows and the current account: Taking financing (more) seriously," BIS Working Papers 525, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Agustin S. Benetrix & Beren Demirolmez & Martin Schmitz, 2021. "The shock absorbing role of cross-border investments: net positions versus currency composition," Trinity Economics Papers tep0421, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    14. McCauley, Robert N., 2015. "Does the US dollar confer an exorbitant privilege?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1-14.
    15. Bergant, Katharina, 2021. "The role of stock-flow adjustment during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    16. Stefan Angrick, 2018. "Structural conditions for currency internationalization: international finance and the survival constraint," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(5), pages 699-725, September.
    17. Ca’ Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2012. "Thousands of models, one story: Current account imbalances in the global economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1319-1338.
    18. Michael D. Bordo & Robert N. McCauley, 2016. "The Current Account Version of the Triffin Dilemma," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 44(2), pages 171-182, June.
    19. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro & McCauley, Robert N., 2022. "Do central banks rebalance their currency shares?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    20. Chiappini, Raphaël & Lahet, Delphine, 2020. "Exchange rate movements in emerging economies - Global vs regional factors in Asia," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global imbalances; Current accounts; Currency zones; International investment positions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:94:y:2019:i:c:p:97-115. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.