IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ememar/v25y2015icp16-29.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Currency composition of reserves, trade invoicing and currency movements

Author

Listed:
  • Ito, Hiroyuki
  • McCauley, Robert N.
  • Chan, Tracy

Abstract

This article analyses the relationships among the unit of account and means of exchange functions of an international currency, on the one hand, and its store of value in official use, on the other hand. Historical evidence links the currency composition of reserves to currency movements. The currency composition of reserves is strongly related in the cross-section to both currency movements and the currency denomination of trade. Data limitations make it hard to distinguish these two factors. A panel analysis of 5 countries from central and Eastern Europe shows that both trade invoicing and currency movements drive changing official reserve composition. Implications are suggested for the prospects for the renminbi enlarging its current small portion of official foreign exchange reserves.

Suggested Citation

  • Ito, Hiroyuki & McCauley, Robert N. & Chan, Tracy, 2015. "Currency composition of reserves, trade invoicing and currency movements," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 16-29.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:25:y:2015:i:c:p:16-29
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2015.11.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S156601411500059X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ememar.2015.11.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bracke, Thierry & Bunda, Irina, 2011. "Exchange rate anchoring - Is there still a de facto US dollar standard?," Working Paper Series 1353, European Central Bank.
    2. Robert N. McCauley & Patrick McGuire & Vladyslav Sushko, 2015. "Global dollar credit: links to US monetary policy and leverage," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 30(82), pages 187-229.
    3. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2007. "International Reserves: Precautionary Versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 191-214, April.
    4. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "Assessing China's exchange rate regime [‘Working with the IMF to strengthen exchange rate surveillance’]," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 22(51), pages 576-627.
    5. Shu, Chang & He, Dong & Cheng, Xiaoqiang, 2015. "One currency, two markets: the renminbi's growing influence in Asia-Pacific," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 163-178.
    6. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi & Filipa Sa, 2005. "International Investors, the U.S. Current Account, and the Dollar," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 1-66.
    7. Michael P. Dooley & J. Saul Lizondo & Donald J. Mathieson, 1989. "The Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(2), pages 385-434, June.
    8. Kawai, Masahiro & Akiyama, Shigeru, 1998. "The Role of Nominal Anchor Currencies in Exchange Rate Arrangements," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 334-387, December.
    9. Robert N McCauley & Tracy Chan, 2014. "Currency movements drive reserve composition," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    10. Eichengreen, Barry & Mathieson, Donald J., "undated". "The Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves Retrospect and Prospect," WIDER Working Papers 295509, United Nations University, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    11. Robert N. McCauley, 1997. "The euro and the dollar," BIS Working Papers 50, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Drummond,Ian M., 2008. "The Floating Pound and the Sterling Area," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521068567.
    13. Schenk,Catherine R., 2013. "The Decline of Sterling," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107612990.
    14. Benassy-Quere, Agnes & Coeure, Benoit & Mignon, Valerie, 2006. "On the identification of de facto currency pegs," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 112-127, March.
    15. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2009. "New Estimation Of China'S Exchange Rate Regime," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 346-360, August.
    16. Mariko Hatase & Mari Ohnuki, 2009. "Did the Structure of Trade and Foreign Debt Affect Reserve Currency Composition? Evidence form Interwar Japan," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-15, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    17. Haldane, A G & Hall, S G, 1991. "Sterling's Relationship with the Dollar and the Deutschemark: 1976-89," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(406), pages 436-443, May.
    18. Subramanian Arvind & Kessler Martin, 2013. "The Renminbi Bloc is Here: Asia Down, Rest of the World to Go?," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 49-94, August.
    19. Hatase, Mariko & Ohnuki, Mari, 2009. "Did the structure of trade and foreign debt affect reserve currency composition? Evidence from interwar Japan," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 319-347, December.
    20. Barry Eichengreen & Chitu Livia & Arnaud Mehl, 2014. "Stability or upheaval? The currency composition of international reserves in the long run," Globalization Institute Working Papers 201, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    21. John Singleton & Catherine R. Schenk, 2015. "The shift from sterling to the dollar, 1965–76: evidence from Australia and New Zealand," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 68(4), pages 1154-1176, November.
    22. Ma, Guonan & McCauley, Robert N., 2011. "The evolving renminbi regime and implications for Asian currency stability," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-38, March.
    23. Schenk, Catherine R., 2009. "The evolution of the Hong Kong currency board during global exchange rate instability, 1967–19731," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 129-156, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. How We Learned Not to Say No to Gold… In International Reserves
      by avgevorkyan in Development Economics on 2018-03-12 21:21:03

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aizenman, Joshua & Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2017. "Balance sheet effects on monetary and financial spillovers: The East Asian crisis plus 20," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 258-282.
    2. Robert N McCauley & Chang Shu, 2018. "Recent RMB policy and currency co-movements," BIS Working Papers 727, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Chokri Zehri & David McMillan, 2020. "Restrictive policy impacts in emerging economies," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 1815979-181, January.
    4. Ito, Hiro & McCauley, Robert N., 2020. "Currency composition of foreign exchange reserves," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    5. Mateane, Lebogang, 2023. "Risk preferences, global market conditions and foreign debt: Is there any role for the currency composition of FX reserves?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 402-418.
    6. Jochen Schanz, 2019. "Reserve management in emerging market economies: trends and challenges," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Reserve management and FX intervention, volume 104, pages 45-55, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. He, Dong & Yu, Xiangrong, 2016. "Network effects in currency internationalisation: Insights from BIS triennial surveys and implications for the renminbi," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 203-229.
    8. Aizenman, Joshua & Cheung, Yin-Wong & Qian, XingWang, 2020. "The currency composition of international reserves, demand for international reserves, and global safe assets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    9. Liu, Tao & Wang, Xiaosong & Woo, Wing Thye, 2019. "The road to currency internationalization: Global perspectives and chinese experience," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 73-101.
    10. Ito, Hiro & Kawai, Masahiro, 2016. "Trade invoicing in major currencies in the 1970s–1990s: Lessons for renminbi internationalization," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 123-145.
    11. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro & McCauley, Robert N., 2022. "Do central banks rebalance their currency shares?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    12. Ito, Hiro & McCauley, Robert N., 2019. "A key currency view of global imbalances," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 97-115.
    13. Iwasaki, Ichiro, 2018. "International Presence of the Japanese Study of Russian and East European Economies," RRC Working Paper Series 74, Russian Research Center, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    14. Mateane, Lebogang, 2020. "Risk preferences, global market conditions and foreign debt: Is there any role for the currency composition of FX reserves?," EconStor Preprints 227484, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    15. Chokri Zehri, 2020. "The Domestic Impacts And Spillovers Of Capital Controls," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 65(227), pages 31-66, October –.
    16. Miss Yinqiu Lu & Yilin Wang, 2019. "Determinants of Currency Composition of Reserves: a Portfolio Theory Approach with an Application to RMB," IMF Working Papers 2019/052, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Alina Iancu & Gareth Anderson & Sakai Ando & Ethan Boswell & Andrea Gamba & Shushanik Hakobyan & Lusine Lusinyan & Neil Meads & Yiqun Wu, 2022. "Reserve Currencies in an Evolving International Monetary System," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(5), pages 879-915, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Robert N McCauley & Tracy Chan, 2014. "Currency movements drive reserve composition," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    2. Ito, Hiro & McCauley, Robert N., 2019. "A key currency view of global imbalances," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 97-115.
    3. Ito, Hiro & McCauley, Robert N., 2020. "Currency composition of foreign exchange reserves," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    4. Robert N McCauley & Chang Shu, 2018. "Recent RMB policy and currency co-movements," BIS Working Papers 727, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Gabriele Galati & Philip Wooldridge, 2009. "The euro as a reserve currency: a challenge to the pre-eminence of the US dollar?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 1-23.
    6. repec:zbw:bofitp:2011_019 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. De Bromhead, Alan & Jordan, David & Kennedy, Francis & Seddon, Jack, 2021. "How does international monetary leadership end? The Sterling Area revisited," QUCEH Working Paper Series 21-02, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    8. Ahmed, Rashad, 2021. "Monetary policy spillovers under intermediate exchange rate regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    9. Jinzhao Chen, 2023. "The "real" exchange rate regime in China since 2015's exchange rate reform," Post-Print hal-04402467, HAL.
    10. Hiro Ito & Cesar M. Rodriguez, 2020. "Clamoring for greenbacks: Explaining the resurgence of the U.S. dollar in international debt," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 370-391, December.
    11. Elias Papaioannou & Richard Portes, 2008. "The international role of the euro: a status report," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 317, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    12. Zhang, Zhichao & Shi, Nan & Zhang, Xiaoli, 2011. "China’s new exchange rate regime, optimal basket currency and currency diversification," MPRA Paper 32642, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Keddad, Benjamin, 2019. "How do the Renminbi and other East Asian currencies co-move?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 49-70.
    14. John Singleton & Catherine R. Schenk, 2015. "The shift from sterling to the dollar, 1965–76: evidence from Australia and New Zealand," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 68(4), pages 1154-1176, November.
    15. Papaioannou, Elias & Portes, Richard & Siourounis, Gregorios, 2006. "Optimal currency shares in international reserves: The impact of the euro and the prospects for the dollar," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 508-547, December.
    16. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M Reinhart & Kenneth S Rogoff, 2019. "Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor will Hold?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 134(2), pages 599-646.
    17. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Hui, Cho-Hoi & Tsang, Andrew, 2018. "The RMB central parity formation mechanism: August 2015 to December 2016," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 223-243.
    18. Marc-André Gosselin & Nicolas Parent, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of Foreign Exchange Reserves in Emerging Asia," Staff Working Papers 05-38, Bank of Canada.
    19. Ila Patnaik & Ajay Shah, 2012. "Asia Confronts the Impossible Trinity," Chapters, in: Masahiro Kawai & Peter J. Morgan & Shinji Takagi (ed.), Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. Schettino, Francesco, 2004. "The FTAA After The Emergence Of the Euro," MPRA Paper 3988, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2006.
    21. Mateane, Lebogang, 2020. "Risk preferences, global market conditions and foreign debt: Is there any role for the currency composition of FX reserves?," EconStor Preprints 227484, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International currency; Currency denomination of trade; Currency composition of official reserves; Dollar zone;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:25:y:2015:i:c:p:16-29. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620356 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.