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A New Financial Order in Asia: Will a RMB bloc emerge?

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  • Takatoshi Ito

Abstract

The objective of this paper is three-fold. First, the monetary and exchange rate regimes of the Asian countries are described and analyzed. The degrees of flexibility in exchange rates and capital controls vary across countries. Some countries have adopted a flexible inflation targeting framework, while others have pursued exchange rate targeting. The paper presents a new result of a tradeoff between price stability and exchange rate stability in the hyperbolic relationship of Asian countries. Second, a framework that analyzes and quantifies the degree of currency internationalization is proposed and applied to the RMB. In every indicator, the RMB’s weight in private-sector international finance has grown in the last several years, both in the private and public sectors. In the settlement role of currency, the RMB is ranked 8th in the BIS survey and 7th in SWIFT usage. This paper exploits data of a recent period when the RMB became de-pegged from the USD and show some of the emerging Asian currencies co-moving with the RMB, more so than the USD. In the official sector, RMB is also increasing its weight. The Chinese central bank has extended the currency-swap agreements with 30-some countries, so that the RMB can be used for trade finance and liquidity assistance. The RMB is adopted as a composition currency of the Special Drawing Rights (SDR), effective in October 2016, with 10.92 percent, ranking number 3, surpassing the JPY and GBP. Finally, potential impending changes in the Asian monetary and exchange rate regimes in Asia are discussed. Projecting the growth of the Chinese economy into the future, the weight of the RMB in the financial markets will increase globally as well as in Asia.

Suggested Citation

  • Takatoshi Ito, 2016. "A New Financial Order in Asia: Will a RMB bloc emerge?," NBER Working Papers 22755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22755
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert N McCauley & Chang Shu, 2018. "Recent RMB policy and currency co-movements," BIS Working Papers 727, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Mariko Tanaka, 2017. "The Impacts of Emerging Asia on Global Financial Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(12), pages 2725-2743, December.
    3. Kumar, Shekhar Hari & Patnaik, Ila, 2018. "Internationalisation of the Rupee," Working Papers 18/222, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    4. Ming Zhang & Bin Zhang, 2017. "The Boom and Bust of the RMB's Internationalization: A Perspective from Cross-Border Arbitrage," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 12(2), pages 237-253, July.
    5. Georgios Magkonis & Simon Rudkin, 2019. "Does Trilemma Speak Chinese?," Working Papers in Economics & Finance 2019-01, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Economics and Finance Subject Group.
    6. Kai-Hua WANG & Chi-Wei SU & Hsu-Ling CHANG & Ji MA & Cristina IOVU, 2017. "Purchasing Power Parity In China: An Empirical Investigation Based On Bootstrap Rollingwindow Test," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 166-181, December.
    7. Wen, Tiange & Wang, Gang-Jin, 2020. "Volatility connectedness in global foreign exchange markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    8. Benjamin KEDDAD & SATO Kiyotaka, 2019. "Pegging or Floating? A Regime-Switching Perspective of Asian Exchange Rate Practices," Discussion papers 19073, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    9. Akihiko Ikeda, 2020. "Currency Swap Agreements and Financial Crises in Small Open Economies," KIER Working Papers 1033, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    10. Shigeki Ono, 2020. "Impacts of conventional and unconventional US monetary policies on global financial markets," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 1-24, February.
    11. Sato, Kiyotaka & Shimizu, Junko, 2018. "International use of the renminbi for invoice currency and exchange risk management: Evidence from the Japanese firm-level data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 286-301.
    12. Chiappini, Raphaël & Lahet, Delphine, 2020. "Exchange rate movements in emerging economies - Global vs regional factors in Asia," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    13. Ito, Hiro & McCauley, Robert N., 2019. "A key currency view of global imbalances," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 97-115.
    14. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Mariko Tanaka, 2017. "The Impacts of Emerging Asia on Global Financial Markets," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1050, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    15. Chang Sik Kim & Sunghyun Kim & Yunjong Wang, 2018. "RMB Bloc in East Asia: Too Early to Talk About It?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 17(3), pages 31-48, Fall.
    16. Angella Faith LAPUKENI & SATO Kiyotaka, 2019. "Invoice Currency Choice in Malawi's Imports from Asia: Is there any evidence of Renminbi Internationalization?," Discussion papers 19060, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    17. Wan, Xiaoli & Yan, Yuruo & Zeng, Zhixiong, 2020. "Exchange rate regimes and market integration: evidence from the dynamic relations between renminbi onshore and offshore markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    18. Kinkyo, Takuji, 2020. "Time-frequency dynamics of exchange rates in East Asia," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F38 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls

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