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Internationalization of the RMB and Historical Precedents

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  • Frankel, Jeffrey

    () (Harvard University)

Abstract

The possibility that the renminbi may soon join the ranks of international currencies has generated much excitement. This paper looks to history for help in evaluating the factors determining its prospects. The three best precedents in the twentieth century were the rise of the dollar from 1913 to 1945, the rise of the Deutsche mark from 1973 to 1990, and the rise of the yen from 1984 to 1991. The fundamental determinants of international currency status are economic size, confidence in the currency, and depth of financial markets. The new view is that, once these three factors are in place, internationalization of the currency can proceed quite rapidly. Thus some observers have recently forecast that the RMB may even challenge the dollar within a decade. But they underestimate the importance of the third criterion, the depth of financial markets. In principle, the Chinese government could decide to create that depth, which would require accepting an open capital account, diminished control over the domestic allocation of credit, and a flexible exchange rate. But although the Chinese government has been actively promoting offshore use of the currency since 2010, it has not done very much to meet these requirements. Indeed, to promote internationalization as national policy would depart from the historical precedents. In all three twentieth-century cases of internationalization, popular interest in the supposed prestige of having the country’s currency appear in the international listings was scant, and businessmen feared that the currency would strengthen and damage their export competitiveness. Probably China, likewise, is not yet fully ready to open its domestic financial markets and let the currency appreciate, so the renminbi will not be challenging the dollar for a long time. We begin, however, by asking: What is international currency status, and why does it matter?
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Suggested Citation

  • Frankel, Jeffrey, 2012. "Internationalization of the RMB and Historical Precedents," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 27, pages 329-365.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:integr:0576
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    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Tao & Wang, Xiaosong, 2016. "The Road to International Currency: Global Perspective and Chinese Experience," MPRA Paper 72877, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. repec:bla:asiapr:v:12:y:2017:i:2:p:237-253 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Subramanian Arvind & Kessler Martin, 2013. "The Renminbi Bloc is Here: Asia Down, Rest of the World to Go?," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 49-94, August.
    4. Dominik A. Skopiec, 2015. "Rola specjalnych praw ciągnienia we współczesnym międzynarodowym systemie walutowym," Gospodarka Narodowa, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 5, pages 89-118.
    5. Joshua Aizenman, 2015. "Internationalization of the RMB, Capital Market Openness and Financial Reforms in China," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 444-460, August.
    6. Dominik A. Skopiec, 2014. "Perspektywy internacjonalizacji waluty Chin," Gospodarka Narodowa, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 1, pages 5-31.
    7. Zhang, Zhiwen & Makin, Anthony J. & Bai, Qinxian, 2016. "Yen internationalization and Japan's international reserves," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 452-466.
    8. Aizenman, Joshua, 2015. "The internationalization of the RMB, capital market openness, and financial reforms in China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2015, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    9. repec:mes:emfitr:v:53:y:2017:i:12:p:2845-2857 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Eswar Prasad & Lei Ye, 2013. "The Renminbi's Prospects as a Global Reserve Currency," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 33(3), pages 563-570, Fall.
    11. Daniel Gersten Reiss, 2015. "Invoice currency: Puzzling evidence and new questions from Brazil," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 16(2), pages 206-225.

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