Are Hard Pegs Ever Credible in Emerging Markets? Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard
We test whether fixed exchange rate regimes are ever credible in emerging markets by analyzing the behavior of short-term domestic trade bills across countries during the classical gold standard period, the most widely used hard peg in modern financial history. We exploit the fact that global capital markets were unfettered in order to identify the currency-risk component using uncovered interest parity for 17 of the largest emerging market borrowers for the period 1870-1913. We show that five years after a country joined the gold standard, the currency risk premium averaged at least 285 basis points for emerging market economies. We estimate that investors expected exchange rates to fall by roughly 28 percent even after emerging market borrowers joined the gold standard. Positive currency risk premiums that persisted long after gold standard adoption suggests that hard pegs for emerging market borrowers may never be fully credible.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2009|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bordo, Michael D. & Rockoff, Hugh, 1996.
"The Gold Standard as a “Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval”,"
The Journal of Economic History,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(02), pages 389-428, June.
- Michael D. Bordo, 1995. "The Gold Standard as a `Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval'," NBER Working Papers 5340, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hugh Rockoff & Michael D. Bordo, 1996. "The Gold Standard as a "Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval"," Departmental Working Papers 199528, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Moritz Schularick & Niall Ferguson, 2005. "“The Thin Film Of Gold”: The Limits Of Monetary Commitments," Macroeconomics 0509009, EconWPA.
- Wesley C. Mitchell, 1898. "Resumption of Specie Payments in Austria-Hungary," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7, pages 106-106.
- Gerardo della Paolera & Alan M. Taylor, 2001. "Straining at the Anchor: The Argentine Currency Board and the Search for Macroeconomic Stability, 1880-1935," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number paol01-1, June.
- Eduardo Borensztein & Andrew Berg, 2000. "The Pros and Cons of Full Dollarization," IMF Working Papers 00/50, International Monetary Fund.
- Schmukler, Sergio L. & Serven, Luis, 2002. "Pricing currency risk under currency boards," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 367-391, December.
- Edwards, Sebastian, 1984. "LDC Foreign Borrowing and Default Risk: An Empirical Investigation, 1976-80," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(4), pages 726-734, September.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 73-96, Fall.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 5191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The mirage of fixed exchange rates," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Domowitz, Ian & Glen, Jack & Madhavan, Ananth, 1998. "Country and Currency Risk Premia in an Emerging Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(02), pages 189-216, June.
- Ian Domowitz & Jack Glen & Ananth Madhavan, "undated". "Country and Currency Risk Premia in an Emerging Market," IPR working papers 97-26, Institute for Policy Resarch at Northwestern University.
- Ferguson, Niall & Schularick, Moritz, 2006. "The Empire Effect: The Determinants of Country Risk in the First Age of Globalization, 1880 1913," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 66(02), pages 283-312, June.
- Niall Ferguson & Moritz Schularick, 2004. "The Empire Effect: The Determinants of Country Risk in the First Age of Globalization, 1880-1913," Working Papers 04-03, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Bordo, Michael D. & Murshid, Antu Panini, 2006. "Globalization and changing patterns in the international transmission of shocks in financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 655-674, June.
- Michael D. Bordo & Antu Panini Murshid, 2002. "Globalization and Changing Patterns in the International Transmission of Shocks in Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 9019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bordo Michael D. & Kydland Finn E., 1995. "The Gold Standard As a Rule: An Essay in Exploration," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 423-464, October.
- Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)