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Keynes and the Dollar in 1933

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  • Sebastian Edwards

Abstract

On December 1933, John Maynard Keyes published an open letter to President Roosevelt, where he wrote: “The recent gyrations of the dollar have looked to me more like a gold standard on the booze than the ideal managed currency of my dreams.” In this paper I use high frequency data to investigate whether the gyrations of the dollar were unusually high throughout this period. My results show that although volatility was pronounced, it was not higher than during October 1931- July 1933. I analyze Keynes writings on the international monetary system in an effort to understand what he meant in his letter. I compare Keynes’s “The means to prosperity” with James P. Warburg’s plan for a “modified international standard.”

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Edwards, 2017. "Keynes and the Dollar in 1933," NBER Working Papers 23141, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23141
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Erratum: The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 195-198, March-Apr.
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    3. Michael D. Bordo & Alan M. Taylor & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2003. "Globalization in Historical Perspective," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bord03-1, July.
    4. Benn Steil, 2013. "The Battle of Bretton Woods: John Maynard Keynes, Harry Dexter White, and the Making of a New World Order," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 9925.
    5. Kris James Mitchener & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2009. "Are Hard Pegs Ever Credible in Emerging Markets? Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard," NBER Working Papers 15401, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994. "Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sebastian Edwards, 2017. "The London Monetary and Economic Conference of 1933 and the End of the Great Depression," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 431-459, July.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • B26 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Financial Economics
    • B3 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought: Individuals
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • N22 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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