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Censored Quantile Regressions and the Length of Unemployment Periods in West Germany

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  • Xuan, Zhang
  • Wilke, Ralf A.
  • Lüdemann, Elke

Abstract

In this paper, we estimate the effect of different macro and micro variables on thedistribution of unemployment duration in West Germany using censored quantile regressions. We analyze unemployment periods of more than 91,000 observations from the years 1981 to 1997 drawn from the IAB employment subsample. The latter is an administrative data set that is representative with respect to the socially insured workforce. Surprisingly, we find that the educational degree and variables indicating the macroeconomic environment such as the unemployment rate have a weak effect only. On the other hand, variables reflecting the (un-)employment history of an individual such as the length of tenure, recall to the same employer in the past, recent unemployment and the position in the population income distribution before unemployment have the strongest effects on unemployment duration. We conclude that work history variables are the ones most suitable in characterizing the unemployment duration of an individual. From a methodological point of view, it is interesting that some regression coefficients have a different sign depending on the quantiles of the unemployment duration distribution. This clearly is a violation of the classical proportional hazard assumption which is very common in unemployment duration analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Xuan, Zhang & Wilke, Ralf A. & Lüdemann, Elke, 2005. "Censored Quantile Regressions and the Length of Unemployment Periods in West Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 04-57 [rev.], ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:7180
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Müller Eva & Zahn Philipp & Wilke Ralf A., 2007. "Beschäftigung und Arbeitslosigkeit älterer Arbeitnehmer / Employment and Unemployment of the Elderly: Eine mikroökonometrische Evaluation der Arbeitslosengeldreform von 1997 / A Microeconometric Evalu," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 227(1), pages 65-86, February.
    2. Achim Schmillen & Joachim Möller, 2009. "Determinants of Lifetime Unemployment - A Micro Data Analysis with Censored Quantile Regressions," Working Papers 275, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).
    3. Tomi Kyyrä & Ralf A. Wilke, 2007. "Reduction in the Long-Term Unemployment of the Elderly: A Success Story from Finland," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(1), pages 154-182, March.
    4. Bruder, Jana & Frosch, Katharina, 2006. "Foreign nationality and age: A double drawback for reemployment in Germany?," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 63, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
    5. Fries, Jan & Göbel, Christian & Maier, Michael F., 2013. "Do employment subsidies reduce early apprenticeship dropout?," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-053, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    6. Melanie Arntz & Ralf Wilke, 2009. "Unemployment Duration in Germany: Individual and Regional Determinants of Local Job Finding, Migration and Subsidized Employment," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(1), pages 43-61.
    7. Fitzenberger, Bernd & Wilke, Ralf A., 2007. "New insights on unemployment duration and post unemployment earnings in Germany: censored Box-Cox quantile regression at work," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-007, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    8. Lee, Sokbae & Wilke, Ralf A., 2009. "Reform of Unemployment Compensation in Germany: A Nonparametric Bounds Analysis Using Register Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(2), pages 193-205.
    9. Arntz, Melanie, 2005. "The Geographical Mobility of Unemployed Workers: Evidence from West Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 05-34, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    10. Schmillen, Achim & Möller, Joachim, 2012. "Distribution and determinants of lifetime unemployment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-47.
    11. Andrew Chesher, 2002. "Local identification in nonseparable models," CeMMAP working papers CWP05/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    12. Kyyrä, Tomi & Wilke, Ralf A., 2006. "Reduction in the Long-Term Unemployment of the Elderly: A Success Story from Finland Revised," Discussion Papers 396, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Frosch, Katharina, 2006. "Reemployment rates over the life course: Is there still hope after late career job loss?," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 64, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
    14. Bernd Fitzenberger & Ralf A. Wilke & Xuan Zhang, 2010. "Implementing Box-Cox Quantile Regression," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 158-181, April.
    15. Ralf Wilke, "undated". "Unemployment Duration in the United Kingdom: An Incomplete Data Approach," Discussion Papers 09/02, University of Nottingham, School of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    censored quantile regression; unemployment duration; administrative data;

    JEL classification:

    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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