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New Insights on Unemployment Duration and Post Unemployment Earnings in Germany: Censored Box-Cox Quantile Regression at Work

  • Fitzenberger, Bernd


    (Humboldt University Berlin)

  • Wilke, Ralf


    (University of York)

In light of nonstationary search theory (van den Berg, 1990), this paper estimates the effects of benefit entitlement periods and the size of unemployment benefits on unemployment durations and post-unemployment earnings in West Germany. For the unemployment duration, we estimate censored Box-Cox quantile regression, which is robust with respect to the specification of the unobserved error distribution and avoids the common proportional hazard assumption. Our results suggest that the length of benefit entitlement is only of minor importance for the duration of search unemployment and for post unemployment wages. A high wage replacement rate in the low wage sector seems to considerably elongate the duration of unemployment and it is associated with higher post unemployment wages.

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 2609.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2007
Date of revision:
Publication status: published in: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2010, 72 (6), 794 - 826
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2609
Contact details of provider: Postal: IZA, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany
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  1. Jennifer Hunt, 1992. "The Effect of Unemployment Compensation on Unemployment Duration in Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 50, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  2. Wilke, Ralf A. & Fitzenberger, Bernd & Zhang, Xuan, 2004. "A Note on Implementing Box-Cox Quantile Regression," ZEW Discussion Papers 04-61, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  3. Pedro Portugal, 2007. "U.S. Unemployment Duration: Has Long Become Longer or Short Become Shorter?," Working Papers 2007/17, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  4. Xuan, Zhang & Wilke, Ralf A. & Lüdemann, Elke, 2005. "Censored Quantile Regressions and the Length of Unemployment Periods in West Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 04-57 [rev.], ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  5. Lee, Sokbae & Wilke, Ralf A., 2005. "Reform of Unemployment Compensation in Germany: A Nonparametric Bounds Analysis Using Register Data," ZEW Discussion Papers 05-29, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  6. Moffitt, Robert, 1985. "Unemployment insurance and the distribution of unemployment spells," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 85-101, April.
  7. Jose A. F. Machado & Jose Mata, 2000. "Box-Cox quantile regression and the distribution of firm sizes," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 253-274.
  8. Wichert, Laura & Wilke, Ralf A., 2005. "Application of a simple nonparametric conditional quantile function estimator in unemployment duration analysis," ZEW Discussion Papers 05-67, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  9. Bruce D. Meyer, 1988. "Unemployment Insurance And Unemployment Spells," NBER Working Papers 2546, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Bruce Meyer, 2002. "Unemployment and workers' compensation programmes: rationale, design, labour supply and income support ," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 1-49, March.
  11. Steiner, Viktor, 1997. "Extended benefit entitlement periods and the duration of unemployment in West Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 97-14, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  12. Konstantinos Tatsiramos, 2009. "Unemployment Insurance in Europe: Unemployment Duration and Subsequent Employment Stability," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(6), pages 1225-1260, December.
  13. José Mata & José A. F. Machado, 2005. "Counterfactual decomposition of changes in wage distributions using quantile regression," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 445-465.
  14. Narendranathan, W & Nickell, S & Stern, J, 1985. "Unemployment Benefits Revisited," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(378), pages 307-29, June.
  15. José A. F. Machado & Pedro Portugal, 2002. "Quantile Regression Methods: na Application to U.S. Unemployment Duration," Working Papers w200201, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  16. Portnoy S., 2003. "Censored Regression Quantiles," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 98, pages 1001-1012, January.
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