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Fiscal Externalities and Optimal Unemployment Insurance

Author

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  • Nicholas Lawson

Abstract

A common finding of the optimal unemployment insurance (UI) literature is that the optimal replacement rate is around 50 percent; however, a key assumption is that UI is the only government spending activity. I show that optimal UI levels may be dramatically reduced when UI is a small part of overall spending: the negative impact of UI on income tax revenues implies added welfare costs, a mechanism that I call a fiscal externality. Using both a standard calibrated structural job search model and a "sufficient statistics" method, I find that the optimal replacement rate is zero when fiscal externalities are incorporated.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas Lawson, 2017. "Fiscal Externalities and Optimal Unemployment Insurance," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 281-312, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejpol:v:9:y:2017:i:4:p:281-312
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/pol.20140396
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    Cited by:

    1. David S. Lee & Pauline Leung & Christopher J. O’Leary & Zhuan Pei & Simon Quach, 2021. "Are Sufficient Statistics Necessary? Nonparametric Measurement of Deadweight Loss from Unemployment Insurance," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(S2), pages 455-506.
    2. Lawson, Nicholas, 2015. "Social program substitution and optimal policy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 13-27.
    3. Nicholas Lawson, 2014. "Liquidity Constraints, Fiscal Externalities and Optimal Tuition Subsidies Optimal College Tuition Subsidies," AMSE Working Papers 1404, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised 18 Mar 2014.
    4. Camarero Garcia, Sebastian & Murmann, Martin, 2020. "Unemployment benefit duration and startup success," ZEW Discussion Papers 20-033, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    5. Lawson, Nicholas & Spears, Dean, 2024. "Fiscal externalities and underinvestment in early-life human capital: Optimal policy instruments for a developing country," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    6. Wang, Cheng & Williamson, Stephen D., 2002. "Moral hazard, optimal unemployment insurance, and experience rating," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(7), pages 1337-1371, October.
    7. Pattison, Nathaniel, 2020. "Consumption smoothing and debtor protections," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    8. Johannes F. Schmieder & Till von Wachter, 2016. "The Effects of Unemployment Insurance Benefits: New Evidence and Interpretation," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 547-581, October.
    9. Manasi Deshpande & Tal Gross & Yalun Su, 2021. "Disability and Distress: The Effect of Disability Programs on Financial Outcomes," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 151-178, April.
    10. Joaquín Herrera & Martin González-Rozada & Hernan Ruffo, 2025. "The Fiscal Costs of Unemployment Insurance," Department of Economics Working Papers 2025_09, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    11. Nicholas Lawson, 2017. "Liquidity Constraints, Fiscal Externalities, and Optimal Tuition Subsidies," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 313-343, November.
    12. Ferey, Antoine, 2022. "Redistribution and Unemployment Insurance," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 345, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    13. Sebastian Camarero Garcia & Martin Murmann, 2025. "How unemployment benefit duration shapes startup motivation and growth," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 1565-1600, April.
    14. Juliana MESÉN VARGAS & Bruno VAN DER LINDEN, 2017. "Is there always a trade-off between insurance and incentives? The case of unemployment with subsistence constraints," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2017014, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    15. Nicholas Lawson, 2023. "Optimal unemployment policy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 61(3), pages 675-692, July.
    16. Jonathan Cohen & Geoffrey C. Schnorr, 2024. "Efficiency Costs of Unemployment Insurance Denial: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Examiners," Upjohn Working Papers 24-404, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    17. Pauline Leung & Christopher O'Leary, 2020. "Unemployment Insurance and Means-Tested Program Interactions: Evidence from Administrative Data," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 159-192, May.
    18. Xiuming Dong & Johanna Catherine Maclean & David Powell, 2024. "Social Insurance Spillovers: Evidence From Paid Sick Leave Mandates and Workers' Compensation," NBER Working Papers 32751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Jessen Robin, 2025. "Maßnahmen zur Erhöhung der Erwerbsbeteiligung Älterer," Wirtschaftsdienst, Sciendo, vol. 105(4), pages 292-298.
    20. Arash Nekoei & Andrea Weber, 2017. "Does Extending Unemployment Benefits Improve Job Quality?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(2), pages 527-561, February.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

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