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Bounds Analysis of Competing Risks: A Nonparametric Evaluation of the Effect of Unemployment Benefits on Imigration in Germany

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  • Wilke, Ralf A.
  • Lo, Simon M. S.
  • Arntz, Melanie

Abstract

In this paper we derive nonparametric bounds for the cumulative incidence curve within a competing risks model with partly identified interval data. As an advantage over earlier attempts our approach also gives valid results in case of dependent competing risks. We apply our framework to empirically evaluate the effect of unemployment benefits on observed migration of unemployed workers in Germany. Our findings weakly indicate that reducing the entitlement length for unemployment benefits increases migration among high-skilled individuals.

Suggested Citation

  • Wilke, Ralf A. & Lo, Simon M. S. & Arntz, Melanie, 2007. "Bounds Analysis of Competing Risks: A Nonparametric Evaluation of the Effect of Unemployment Benefits on Imigration in Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-049, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:5875
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chatterjee, Satyajit & Ravikumar, B., 1999. "Minimum Consumption Requirements: Theoretical And Quantitative Implications For Growth And Distribution," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, pages 482-505.
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    5. Jan Boone & Peter Fredriksson & Bertil Holmlund & Jan C. van Ours, 2007. "Optimal Unemployment Insurance with Monitoring and Sanctions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(518), pages 399-421, March.
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    12. Card, David & Levine, Phillip B., 2000. "Extended benefits and the duration of UI spells: evidence from the New Jersey extended benefit program," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, pages 107-138.
    13. Antolin, Pablo & Bover, Olympia, 1997. "Regional Migration in Spain: The Effect of Personal Characteristics and of Unemployment, Wage and House Price Differentials Using Pooled Cross-Sections," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(2), pages 215-235, May.
    14. Lee, Sokbae & Wilke, Ralf A., 2009. "Reform of Unemployment Compensation in Germany: A Nonparametric Bounds Analysis Using Register Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(2), pages 193-205.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lo, Simon M.S. & Stephan, Gesine & Wilke, Ralf, 2012. "Estimating the Latent Effect of Unemployment Benefits on Unemployment Duration," IZA Discussion Papers 6650, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    2. Wrede, Matthias, 2011. "Unemployment, commuting, and search intensity," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 12/2011, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    3. Johannes F. Schmieder† & Till von Wachter & Stefan Bender, 2011. "The Effects Of Extended Unemployment Insurance Over The Business Cycle: Evidence From Regression Discontinuity Estimates Over Twenty Years," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2011-063, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    4. Simon M. S. Lo & Ralf A. Wilke, 2010. "A copula model for dependent competing risks," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, pages 359-376.
    5. Wielandt, Hanna & Senftleben, Charlotte, 2012. "The Polarization of Employment in German Local Labor Markets," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62063, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Ralf Wilke, "undated". "Unemployment Duration in the United Kingdom: An Incomplete Data Approach," Discussion Papers 09/02, University of Nottingham, School of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    cumulative incidence curve; partially missing data; bounds analysis; difference-in-differences;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

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