IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/empeco/v46y2014i1p199-228.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bounds analysis of competing risks: a non-parametric evaluation of the effect of unemployment benefits on migration

Author

Listed:
  • Melanie Arntz
  • Simon Lo
  • Ralf Wilke

Abstract

By reexamining the effect of unemployment benefits on reemployment probabilities we make two contributions to the literature: first, we estimate separate effects for reemployment in the local or a distant region. Second, we address the problem of incomplete duration within a competing risks model. Our results confirm that missing data problems at first preclude any meaningful result even though we have access to daily individual data on 50 % of the male workforce in Germany. When we impose additional assumptions, we obtain evidence that the treatment effect depends on the household context, the treatment intensity and the destination state. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Melanie Arntz & Simon Lo & Ralf Wilke, 2014. "Bounds analysis of competing risks: a non-parametric evaluation of the effect of unemployment benefits on migration," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 199-228, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:46:y:2014:i:1:p:199-228
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-012-0675-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00181-012-0675-0
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00181-012-0675-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bo E. Honoré & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2006. "Bounds in Competing Risks Models and the War on Cancer," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1675-1698, November.
    2. John Hassler & José V. Rodríguez Mora & Kjetil Storesletten & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2005. "A Positive Theory Of Geographic Mobility And Social Insurance," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 46(1), pages 263-303, February.
    3. Jan Boone & Peter Fredriksson & Bertil Holmlund & Jan C. van Ours, 2007. "Optimal Unemployment Insurance with Monitoring and Sanctions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(518), pages 399-421, March.
    4. Christian Bontemps & Thierry Magnac & Eric Maurin, 2012. "Set Identified Linear Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(3), pages 1129-1155, May.
    5. Angrist, Joshua D. & Krueger, Alan B., 1999. "Empirical strategies in labor economics," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 23, pages 1277-1366, Elsevier.
    6. Simon M. S. Lo & Ralf A. Wilke, 2010. "A copula model for dependent competing risks," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 59(2), pages 359-376, March.
    7. Alberto Abadie, 2005. "Semiparametric Difference-in-Differences Estimators," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(1), pages 1-19.
    8. Konstantinos Tatsiramos, 2009. "Geographic labour mobility and unemployment insurance in Europe," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 22(2), pages 267-283, April.
    9. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-679, June.
    10. Fitzenberger Bernd & Wilke Ralf A., 2010. "Unemployment Durations in West Germany Before and After the Reform of the Unemployment Compensation System during the 1980s," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 11(3), pages 336-366, August.
    11. Thomas Kruppe & Eva Müller & Laura Wichert & Ralf A. Wilke, 2008. "On the Definition of Unemployment and its Implementation in Regis-ter Data - The Case of Germany," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 128(3), pages 461-488.
    12. Frederick J. Tannery, 1983. "Search Effort and Unemployment Insurance Reconsidered," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 18(3), pages 432-440.
    13. Boone, Jan & Sadrieh, Abdolkarim & van Ours, Jan C., 2009. "Experiments on unemployment benefit sanctions and job search behavior," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 937-951, November.
    14. Lo Simon M.S. & Wilke Ralf A., 2014. "A Regression Model for the Copula-Graphic Estimator," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 21-46, January.
    15. Hunt, Jennifer, 1995. "The Effect of Unemployment Compensation on Unemployment Duration in Germany," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 13(1), pages 88-120, January.
    16. O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), 1999. "Handbook of Labor Economics," Handbook of Labor Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3.
    17. Pissarides, Christopher A & Wadsworth, Jonathan, 1989. "Unemployment and the Inter-regional Mobility of Labour," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 739-755, September.
    18. Lee, Sokbae & Wilke, Ralf A., 2009. "Reform of Unemployment Compensation in Germany: A Nonparametric Bounds Analysis Using Register Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(2), pages 193-205.
    19. Arntz, Melanie, 2007. "The Geographic Mobility of Heterogeneous Labour in Germany," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 38310, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    20. Antolin, Pablo & Bover, Olympia, 1997. "Regional Migration in Spain: The Effect of Personal Characteristics and of Unemployment, Wage and House Price Differentials Using Pooled Cross-Sections," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(2), pages 215-235, May.
    21. Melanie Arntz & Ralf Wilke, 2009. "Unemployment Duration in Germany: Individual and Regional Determinants of Local Job Finding, Migration and Subsidized Employment," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(1), pages 43-61.
    22. Bernd Fitzenberger & Ralf A. Wilke, 2010. "Unemployment Durations in West Germany Before and After the Reform of the Unemployment Compensation System during the 1980s," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11(3), pages 336-366, August.
    23. Ghatak, Subrata & Levine, Paul & Price, Stephen Wheatley, 1996. "Migration Theories and Evidence: An Assessment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 159-198, June.
    24. Jackman, Richard & Savouri, Savvas, 1992. "Regional Migration in Britain: An Analysis of Gross Flows Using NHS Central Register Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(415), pages 1433-1450, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bruno Rodrigues & Vincent Vergnat, 2019. "The time and the transitions back to work in France after maternity," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 861-888, September.
    2. Lo Simon M.S. & Stephan Gesine & Wilke Ralf A., 2017. "Competing Risks Copula Models for Unemployment Duration: An Application to a German Hartz Reform," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-20, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arntz, Melanie & Lo, Simon M. S. & Wilke, Ralf A., 2008. "Bounds analysis of competing risks : a nonparametric evaluation of the effect of unemployment benefits on migration in Germany (Revised version of the FDZ Methodenbericht No. 04/2007)," FDZ Methodenreport 200806_en, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. Arntz, Melanie & Lo, Simon M. S. & Wilke, Ralf A., 2007. "Bounds analysis of competing risks : a nonparametric evaluation of the effect of unemployment benefits on migration in Germany," FDZ-Methodenreport 200704 (en), Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    3. repec:iab:iabfme:200806(en is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:iab:iabfme:200704(en is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Tito Boeri & Jan van Ours, 2013. "The Economics of Imperfect Labor Markets: Second Edition," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10142.
    6. Ralf Wilke, 2009. "Unemployment Duration in the United Kingdom: An Incomplete Data Approach," Discussion Papers 09/02, University of Nottingham, School of Economics.
    7. Melanie Arntz & Ralf Wilke, 2009. "Unemployment Duration in Germany: Individual and Regional Determinants of Local Job Finding, Migration and Subsidized Employment," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(1), pages 43-61.
    8. Dlugosz, Stephan & Stephan, Gesine & Wilke, Ralf A., 2009. "Fixing the leak: unemployment incidence before and after the 2006 reform of unemployment benefits in Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 09-079, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    9. Lo, Simon M.S. & Stephan, Gesine & Wilke, Ralf, 2012. "Estimating the Latent Effect of Unemployment Benefits on Unemployment Duration," IZA Discussion Papers 6650, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Bernd Fitzenberger & Ralf A. Wilke, 2010. "New Insights into Unemployment Duration and Post Unemployment Earnings in Germany," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(6), pages 794-826, December.
    11. Fredrik Carlsen & Kåre Johansen & Knut RØed, 2006. "Wage Formation, Regional Migration and Local Labour Market Tightness," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(4), pages 423-444, August.
    12. Mergele, Lukas & Weber, Michael, 2020. "Public employment services under decentralization: Evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    13. Birgitta Rabe & Mark P. Taylor, 2012. "Differences in Opportunities? Wage, Employment and House-Price Effects on Migration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(6), pages 831-855, December.
    14. Hannu Tervo, 2000. "Migration and Labour Market Adjustment: Empirical evidence from Finland 1985-90," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 343-360.
    15. Ildefonso Mendez, 2008. "Intergenerational Time Transfers and Internal Migration: Accounting for Low Spatial Mobility in Southern Europe," Working Papers wp2008_0811, CEMFI.
    16. Philip Ball & Ralf Wilke, 2009. "Job seeker's allowance in Great Britain: How does the regional labour market affect the duration until job finding?," Discussion Papers 09/03, University of Nottingham, School of Economics.
    17. Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Borra, Cristina, 2021. "The role of non-contributory pensions on internal mobility in Spain," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    18. Martin Abraham & Katrin Auspurg & Sebastian Bähr & Corinna Frodermann & Stefanie Gundert & Thomas Hinz, 2013. "Unemployment and willingness to accept job offers: results of a factorial survey experiment [Arbeitslosigkeit und Stellenannahmebereitschaft: Erste Ergebnisse eines Faktoriellen Survey Moduls]," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 46(4), pages 283-305, December.
    19. G Di Pietro, 2005. "On Migration and Unemployment: Evidence from Italian Graduates," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 10(2), pages 11-28, September.
    20. Johannes F. Schmieder† & Till von Wachter & Stefan Bender, 2011. "The Effects Of Extended Unemployment Insurance Over The Business Cycle: Evidence From Regression Discontinuity Estimates Over Twenty Years," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2011-063, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    21. Carlo Devillanova & Walter García-Fontes, 2004. "Migration across Spanish provinces: evidence from the social security records (1978-1992)," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 28(3), pages 461-487, September.
    22. Fredrik Carlsen & Kåre Johansen, 2004. "Subjective Measures of Employment Opportunities and Interregional Migration," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 18(4), pages 563-589, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cumulative incidence curve; Administrative data; Difference-in-differences; C41; C14; J61;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:46:y:2014:i:1:p:199-228. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.