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Bounds analysis of competing risks: a non-parametric evaluation of the effect of unemployment benefits on migration

  • Melanie Arntz

    ()

  • Simon Lo

    ()

  • Ralf Wilke

    ()

By reexamining the effect of unemployment benefits on reemployment probabilities we make two contributions to the literature: first, we estimate separate effects for reemployment in the local or a distant region. Second, we address the problem of incomplete duration within a competing risks model. Our results confirm that missing data problems at first preclude any meaningful result even though we have access to daily individual data on 50 % of the male workforce in Germany. When we impose additional assumptions, we obtain evidence that the treatment effect depends on the household context, the treatment intensity and the destination state. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00181-012-0675-0
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Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

Volume (Year): 46 (2014)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 199-228

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Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:46:y:2014:i:1:p:199-228
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  1. Arntz, Melanie & Wilke, Ralf A., 2006. "Unemployment duration in Germany: individual and regional determinants of local job finding, migration and subsidized employment," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-92, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  2. Boone, Jan & Fredriksson, Peter & Holmlund, Bertil & van Ours, Jan, 2001. "Optimal Unemployment Insurance with Monitoring and Sanctions," Working Paper Series 2001:20, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  3. Pissarides, Christopher A & Wadsworth, Jonathan, 1989. "Unemployment and the Inter-regional Mobility of Labour," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 739-55, September.
  4. Thomas Kruppe & Eva Müller & Laura Wichert & Ralf A. Wilke, 2008. "On the Definition of Unemployment and its Implementation in Regis-ter Data - The Case of Germany," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 128(3), pages 461-488.
  5. Simon M. S. Lo & Ralf A. Wilke, 2010. "A copula model for dependent competing risks," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 59(2), pages 359-376.
  6. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June.
  7. Frederick J. Tannery, 1983. "Search Effort and Unemployment Insurance Reconsidered," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 18(3), pages 432-440.
  8. Hunt, Jennifer, 1995. "The Effect of Unemployment Compensation on Unemployment Duration in Germany," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 13(1), pages 88-120, January.
  9. Christian Bontemps & Thierry Magnac & Eric Maurin, 2011. "Set identified linear models," CeMMAP working papers CWP13/11, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  10. Konstantinos Tatsiramos, 2009. "Geographic labour mobility and unemployment insurance in Europe," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 267-283, April.
  11. Lee, Sokbae & Wilke, Ralf A., 2009. "Reform of Unemployment Compensation in Germany: A Nonparametric Bounds Analysis Using Register Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(2), pages 193-205.
  12. Ghatak, Subrata & Levine, Paul & Price, Stephen Wheatley, 1996. " Migration Theories and Evidence: An Assessment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 159-98, June.
  13. Jackman, Richard & Savouri, Savvas, 1992. "Regional Migration in Britain: An Analysis of Gross Flows Using NHS Central Register Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(415), pages 1433-50, November.
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