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Reemployment Probability and Multiple Unemployment Spells: A Partial-Likelihood Approach

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  • Trivedi, P K
  • Alexander, J N

Abstract

An extended version of the mixed-proportional-hazards model is used to study the determinants of the conditional probability of reemployment of long-term unemployed young persons sampled in the first stage of the Australian National Longitudinal Survey. The survey data facilitate an econometric comparison between the effect of different factors on the conditional reemployment probability of those in their first unemployment spell with those who have experienced multiple spells. The article uses Cox's partial-likelihood approach. The empirical results support the hypothesis of lagged-duration dependence in that the length of previous job experience or the duration of previous unemployment is found to be an important determinant of reemployment probability. The results strongly suggest that fitting a common duration model to data from different spells involves a major misspecification.

Suggested Citation

  • Trivedi, P K & Alexander, J N, 1989. "Reemployment Probability and Multiple Unemployment Spells: A Partial-Likelihood Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(3), pages 395-401, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:7:y:1989:i:3:p:395-401
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    Cited by:

    1. De Toldi, M. & Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A., 1995. "Prepayment analysis for securitization," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 45-70, March.
    2. Ga?ecka-Burdziak, Ewa & Góra, Marek, 2017. "How Do Unemployed Workers Behave Prior to Retirement? A Multi-State Multiple-Spell Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 10680, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    3. Pieter Serneels, 2004. "The Nature of Unemployment in Urban Ethiopia," Development and Comp Systems 0409042, EconWPA.
    4. Bruce Chapman & Matthew Gray, 2002. "Youth Unemployment: Aggregate Incidence and Consequences for Individuals," CEPR Discussion Papers 459, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    5. Pieter Serneels, 2002. "Explaining Non-Negative Duration Dependence Among the Unemployed," CSAE Working Paper Series 2002-13, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    6. Frosch, Katharina, 2006. "Reemployment rates over the life course: Is there still hope after late career job loss?," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 64, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
    7. Ewa Galecka-Burdziak, 2016. "Multiple unemployment spells duration in Poland," Working Papers 2016-019, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.

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