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Reemployment Probability and Multiple Unemployment Spells: A Partial-Likelihood Approach

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  • Trivedi, P K
  • Alexander, J N

Abstract

An extended version of the mixed-proportional-hazards model is used to study the determinants of the conditional probability of reemployment of long-term unemployed young persons sampled in the first stage of the Australian National Longitudinal Survey. The survey data facilitate an econometric comparison between the effect of different factors on the conditional reemployment probability of those in their first unemployment spell with those who have experienced multiple spells. The article uses Cox's partial-likelihood approach. The empirical results support the hypothesis of lagged-duration dependence in that the length of previous job experience or the duration of previous unemployment is found to be an important determinant of reemployment probability. The results strongly suggest that fitting a common duration model to data from different spells involves a major misspecification.

Suggested Citation

  • Trivedi, P K & Alexander, J N, 1989. "Reemployment Probability and Multiple Unemployment Spells: A Partial-Likelihood Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(3), pages 395-401, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:7:y:1989:i:3:p:395-401
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    Cited by:

    1. Ewa Galecka-Burdziak & Marek Góra, 2017. "“How do unemployed workers behave prior to retirement? A multi-state multiple-spell approach”," CeRP Working Papers 170, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
    2. Bruce Chapman & Matthew Gray, 2002. "Youth Unemployment: Aggregate Incidence and Consequences for Individuals," CEPR Discussion Papers 459, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    3. De Toldi, M. & Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A., 1995. "Prepayment analysis for securitization," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 45-70, March.
    4. Frosch, Katharina, 2006. "Reemployment rates over the life course: Is there still hope after late career job loss?," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 64, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
    5. Ewa Galecka-Burdziak, 2016. "Multiple unemployment spells duration in Poland," KAE Working Papers 2016-019, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.

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