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How Do Unemployed Workers Behave Prior to Retirement? A Multi-State Multiple-Spell Approach

Listed author(s):
  • Gałecka-Burdziak, Ewa

    ()

    (Warsaw School of Economics)

  • Góra, Marek

    ()

    (Warsaw School of Economics)

We examine the behaviour of unemployed older workers up to five years prior to the point at which they can transition out of unemployment because they become eligible to receive pension benefits. We use a unique dataset covering the unemployment histories (longitudinal data) of individuals born between 1940 and 1965 who were registered with any of the public employment offices in Poland. Thus, we study a whole population of individuals who experienced this type of transition over the time period 1996-2015. We examine the transition from unemployment to retirement as a multi-year process. We analyse multiple unemployment spells, identify transition pathways, and look for patterns in these transitions. Moreover, we estimate a conditional risk set model (a stratified Cox model). Our research proves that being close to the point at which they are eligible to receive pension benefits leads individuals 'wait' to fulfil these eligibility criteria.

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 10680.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2017
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10680
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  1. Jean-Olivier Hairault & Francois Langot & Thepthida Sopraseuth, 2010. "Distance to Retirement and Older Workers' Employment: The Case for Delaying the Retirement Age," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(5), pages 1034-1076, 09.
  2. Mario Cleves, 2000. "Analysis of multiple failure-time data with Stata," Stata Technical Bulletin, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(49).
  3. Robert M. Hutchens, 1988. "Do Job Opportunities Decline with Age?," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 42(1), pages 89-99, October.
  4. Paul Marmora & Moritz Ritter, 2015. "Unemployment and the Retirement Decisions of Older Workers," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 274-290, September.
  5. Akerlof, George A & Main, Brian G M, 1980. "Unemployment Spells and Unemployment Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 885-893, December.
  6. Trivedi, P K & Alexander, J N, 1989. "Reemployment Probability and Multiple Unemployment Spells: A Partial-Likelihood Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(3), pages 395-401, July.
  7. Ewa Gałecka-Burdziak & Marek Góra, 2016. "The impact of easy and early access to old-age benefits on exits from the labour market: a macro-micro analysis," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-18, December.
  8. Courtney Coile & Jonathan Gruber, 2007. "Future Social Security Entitlements and the Retirement Decision," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(2), pages 234-246, May.
  9. Courtney C. Coile & Phillip B. Levine, 2007. "Labor market shocks and retirement: Do government programs matter?," NBER Chapters,in: Trans-Atlantic Public Economics Seminar (TAPES), Public Policy and Retirement, pages 1902-1919 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2001. "Duration models: specification, identification and multiple durations," Handbook of Econometrics,in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 55, pages 3381-3460 Elsevier.
  11. Grzegorz Kula & Anna Ruzik-Sierdzińska, 2011. "Institutional uncertainty and retirement decisions in Poland," Working Papers 2011-17, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
  12. Govert Bijwaard, 2014. "Multistate event history analysis with frailty," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(58), pages 1591-1620, May.
  13. Heckman, James J & Borjas, George J, 1980. "Does Unemployment Cause Future Unemployment? Definitions, Questions and Answers from a Continuous Time Model of Heterogeneity and State Dependence," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(187), pages 247-283, August.
  14. Jonathan Gruber & David A. Wise, 1999. "Social Security and Retirement around the World," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number grub99-1, October.
  15. Jonathan Gruber & David A. Wise, 1999. "Introduction to "Social Security and Retirement around the World"," NBER Chapters,in: Social Security and Retirement around the World, pages 1-35 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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