IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Explaining Non-Negative Duration Dependence Among the Unemployed

  • Pieter Serneels

We investigate why we observe non-negative duration dependence among young unemployed men in urban Ethiopia. Assuming that genuine duration dependence is negative, there are five explanations for a non-decreasing hazard: the presence of unemployment benefits, the existence of Active Labour Market Policies, the change in labour demand, segmentation of the labour market, and unemployment as a queuing phenomenon. We test each of these explanations and find that labour market segmentation is the only convincing one. We also establish that genuine duration dependence is indeed negative in the long run.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.csae.ox.ac.uk/workingpapers/pdfs/2002-13text.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford in its series CSAE Working Paper Series with number 2002-13.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2002-13
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Manor Road, Oxford, OX1 3UQ

Phone: +44-(0)1865 271084
Fax: +44-(0)1865 281447
Web page: http://www.csae.ox.ac.uk/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Abbring, Jaap H & van den Berg, Gerard J & van Ours, Jan C, 1995. "The Anatomy of Unemployment Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 1202, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Blanchard, O.J. & Diamond, P., 1990. "Ranking, Unemployment Duration, And Wages," Working papers 546, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  3. Ackum, Susanne, 1991. " Youth Unemployment, Labor Market Programs and Subsequent Earnings," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93(4), pages 531-43.
  4. Pieter Serneels, 2007. "The Nature of Unemployment among Young Men in Urban Ethiopia," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(1), pages 170-186, 02.
  5. Meghir, Costas & Ioannides, Yannis & Pissarides, Christopher, 1989. "Female participation and male unemployment duration in Greece: Evidence from the labour force survey," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(2-3), pages 395-406, March.
  6. J. Richardson, 1997. "Can active labour market policy work? Some theoretical considerations," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20354, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  7. Gilles SAINT-PAUL, 2002. "Productivity, Social Interaction and Communication," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 2002022, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  8. Chris Elbers & Geert Ridder, 1982. "True and Spurious Duration Dependence: The Identifiability of the Proportional Hazard Model," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(3), pages 403-409.
  9. Lynch, Lisa M, 1989. "The Youth Labor Market in the Eighties: Determinants of Re-employment Probabilities for Young Men and Women," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 37-45, February.
  10. T. Addison, John & Portugal, Pedro, 1998. "Some specification issues in unemployment duration analysis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 53-66, March.
  11. Tunali, Insan & Assaad, Ragui, 1992. "Market Structure and Spells of Employment and Unemployment: Evidence from the Construction Sector in Egypt," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(4), pages 339-67, Oct.-Dec..
  12. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June.
  13. Abbring, J.H. & van den Berg, G. & van Ours, J.C., 1999. "Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in U.S. Unemployment," Discussion Paper 1999-65, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  14. Mengistae, Taye, 1999. "Wage rates and job queues - does the public sector overpay in Ethiopia?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2105, The World Bank.
  15. van den Berg, Gerard J & van der Klaauw, Bas, 2000. "Combining Micro and Macro Unemployment Duration Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 2494, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. J Richardson, 1997. "Can Active Labour Market Policy Work? Some Theoretical Considerations," CEP Discussion Papers dp0331, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  17. Edin, Per-Anders, 1989. " Unemployment Duration and Competing Risks: Evidence from Sweden," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 91(4), pages 639-53.
  18. Jackman, Richard & Layard, Richard, 1991. "Does Long-term Unemployment Reduce a Person's Chance of a Job? A Time-Series Test," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 58(229), pages 93-106, February.
  19. Gerard J. van den Berg & Jan C. van Ours, 1999. "Duration dependence and heterogeneity in French youth unemployment durations," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 12(2), pages 273-285.
  20. Paul Glewwe & Nauman Ilias, 1996. "The determinants of school attainment in sub-Saharan Africa: A case study of Ghana," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 395-413.
  21. Keane, Michael P & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1997. "The Career Decisions of Young Men," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(3), pages 473-522, June.
  22. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 1991. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198284345, December.
  23. Lynch, Lisa M., 1985. "State dependency in youth unemployment : A lost generation?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 71-84, April.
  24. Moffitt, Robert, 1985. "Unemployment insurance and the distribution of unemployment spells," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 85-101, April.
  25. Vodopivec, Milan, 1995. "Unemployment insurance and duration of unemployment : evidence from Slovenia's transition," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1552, The World Bank.
  26. Appleton, Simon & Knight, John & Song, Lina & Xia, Qingjie, 2002. "Labor retrenchment in China: Determinants and consequences," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 252-275.
  27. Trivedi, P K & Hui, W T, 1987. "An Empirical Study of Long-term Unemployment in Australia," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(1), pages 20-42, January.
  28. Arulampalam, Wiji, 2001. "Is Unemployment Really Scarring? Effects of Unemployment Experiences on Wages," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(475), pages F585-606, November.
  29. Rama, Martin, 1999. "The Sri Lankan unemployment problem revisited," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2227, The World Bank.
  30. Groot, Wim, 1990. "Heterogeneous Jobs and Re-employment Probabilities," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(3), pages 253-67, August.
  31. Rama, Martin, 1998. "How Bad Is Unemployment in Tunisia? Assessing Labor Market Efficiency in a Developing Country," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 13(1), pages 59-77, February.
  32. Pramila Krishnan, 1994. "Family background, education and employment in urban Ethiopia," CSAE Working Paper Series 1994-08, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  33. Martina Lubyova & Jan C. van Ours, 1999. "Unemployment durations of job losers in a labour market in transition," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 7(3), pages 665-686, November.
  34. van den Berg, G., 1988. "Search behaviour, transitions to nonparticipation and the duration of unemployment," Research Memorandum 01393d23-5b79-44ba-b971-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  35. Geeta G. Kingdon & John B. Knight, 2000. "Are searching and non-searching unemployment distinct states when unemployment is high? The case of South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2000-02, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  36. Narendranathan, W & Stewart, Mark B, 1993. "How Does the Benefit Effect Vary as Unemployment Spells Lengthen?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 361-81, Oct.-Dec..
  37. Berg, G.J. & Ours, J.C., 1993. "Unemployment dynamics and duration dependence," Serie Research Memoranda 0022, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
  38. Tenjo, Jaime, 1990. "Opportunities, Aspirations, and Urban Unemployment of Youth: The Case of Colombia," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 38(4), pages 733-61, July.
  39. Glewwe, P. & Jacoby, H., 1992. "Estimating the Determinants of Cognitive Achivement in Low-Income Countries," Papers 91, World Bank - Living Standards Measurement.
  40. Micklewright, John & Nagy, Gyula, 1996. "Labour market policy and the unemployed in Hungary," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 819-828, April.
  41. Nickell, Stephen J, 1979. "Estimating the Probability of Leaving Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1249-66, September.
  42. William T. Dickens & Kevin Lang, 1991. "An Analysis of the Nature of Unemployment in Sri Lanka," NBER Working Papers 3777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  43. Arulampalam, Wiji & Stewart, Mark B, 1995. "The Determinants of Individual Unemployment Durations in an Era of High Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 321-32, March.
  44. Torelli, Nicola & Trivellato, Ugo, 1989. "Youth unemployment duration from the Italian labour force survey: Accuracy issues and modelling attempts," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(2-3), pages 407-415, March.
  45. Trivedi, P K & Alexander, J N, 1989. "Reemployment Probability and Multiple Unemployment Spells: A Partial-Likelihood Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(3), pages 395-401, July.
  46. A. B. Atkinson, 1999. "The Economic Consequences of Rolling Back the Welfare State," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262011719, March.
  47. Ham, John C & Rea, Samuel A, Jr, 1987. "Unemployment Insurance and Male Unemployment Duration in Canada," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(3), pages 325-53, July.
  48. Arulampalam, Wiji & Booth, Alison L & Taylor, Mark P, 2000. "Unemployment Persistence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 24-50, January.
  49. Jean-Yves Bienvenue & Lucette Carter & Olivier Favereau & Jacques Zighera, 1997. "Differential Analysis of Unemployment Duration with Emphasis on Long-Term Unemployment," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 11(1), pages 53-82, 04.
  50. Robert H. Topel & Michael P. Ward, 1992. "Job Mobility and the Careers of Young Men," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 439-479.
  51. Lawrence F. Katz, 1986. "Layoffs, Recall and the Duration of Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 1825, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  52. Hernaes, E. & Strom, S., 1995. "Heterogeneity and Unemployment Duration," Memorandum 28/1995, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  53. Korpi, Tomas, 1995. "Effects of Manpower Policies on Duration Dependence in Re-employment Rates: The Example of Sweden," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 62(247), pages 353-71, August.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2002-13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Richard Payne)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.