IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Explaining Non-Negative Duration Dependence Among the Unemployed

  • Pieter Serneels

We investigate why we observe non-negative duration dependence among young unemployed men in urban Ethiopia. Assuming that genuine duration dependence is negative, there are five explanations for a non-decreasing hazard: the presence of unemployment benefits, the existence of Active Labour Market Policies, the change in labour demand, segmentation of the labour market, and unemployment as a queuing phenomenon. We test each of these explanations and find that labour market segmentation is the only convincing one. We also establish that genuine duration dependence is indeed negative in the long run.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.csae.ox.ac.uk/workingpapers/pdfs/2002-13text.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford in its series CSAE Working Paper Series with number 2002-13.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2002-13
Contact details of provider: Postal: Manor Road, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
Phone: +44-(0)1865 271084
Fax: +44-(0)1865 281447
Web page: http://www.csae.ox.ac.uk/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Abbring, Jaap H & van den Berg, Gerard J & van Ours, Jan C, 2001. "Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in U.S. Unemployment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 436-48, October.
  2. Gilles SAINT-PAUL, 2002. "Productivity, Social Interaction and Communication," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 2002022, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  3. Lawrence F. Katz, 1986. "Layoffs, Recall and the Duration of Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 1825, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Lubyova, M. & van Ours, J.C., 1998. "Unemployment Durations of Job Losers in a Labor Market in Transition," Discussion Paper 1998-39, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  5. Groot, Wim, 1990. "The effects of benefits and duration dependence on re-employment probabilities," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 371-376, April.
  6. Arulampalam, Wiji, 2001. "Is Unemployment Really Scarring? Effects of Unemployment Experiences on Wages," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(475), pages F585-606, November.
  7. Tenjo, Jaime, 1990. "Opportunities, Aspirations, and Urban Unemployment of Youth: The Case of Colombia," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 38(4), pages 733-61, July.
  8. Gronau, Reuben, 1971. "Information and Frictional Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(3), pages 290-301, June.
  9. Taye Mengistae, 1998. "Wage rates and job queues: does the public sector overpay in Ethiopia?," CSAE Working Paper Series 1998-20, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  10. van den Berg, Gerard J & van Ours, Jan C, 1996. "Unemployment Dynamics and Duration Dependence," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(1), pages 100-125, January.
  11. Berg, Gerard J. van den & Ours, Jan C. van, 1996. "Duration dependence and heterogeneity in French youth unemployment durations," Serie Research Memoranda 0044, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
  12. Nickell, Stephen J, 1979. "Estimating the Probability of Leaving Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1249-66, September.
  13. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Diamond, Peter A, 1994. "Ranking, Unemployment Duration, and Wages," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 417-34, July.
  14. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173, March.
  15. Mark C. Foley, 1997. "Determinants of Unemployment Duration in Russia," Working Papers 779, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
  16. Rama, Martin, 1999. "The Sri Lankan unemployment problem revisited," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2227, The World Bank.
  17. Torelli, Nicola & Trivellato, Ugo, 1989. "Youth unemployment duration from the Italian labour force survey: Accuracy issues and modelling attempts," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(2-3), pages 407-415, March.
  18. Lynch, Lisa M, 1989. "The Youth Labor Market in the Eighties: Determinants of Re-employment Probabilities for Young Men and Women," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 37-45, February.
  19. van den Berg, Gerard J. & van der Klaauw, Bas, 2001. "Combining micro and macro unemployment duration data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 271-309, June.
  20. Meghir, Costas & Ioannides, Yannis & Pissarides, Christopher, 1989. "Female participation and male unemployment duration in Greece: Evidence from the labour force survey," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(2-3), pages 395-406, March.
  21. Groot, Wim, 1990. "Heterogeneous Jobs and Re-employment Probabilities," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(3), pages 253-67, August.
  22. Christopher J. Flinn & James J. Heckman, 1982. "Are Unemployment and Out of the Labor Force Behaviorally Distinct Labor Force States?," NBER Working Papers 0979, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Rama, Martin, 1998. "How Bad Is Unemployment in Tunisia? Assessing Labor Market Efficiency in a Developing Country," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 13(1), pages 59-77, February.
  24. Geeta G. Kingdon & John B. Knight, 2000. "Are searching and non-searching unemployment distinct states when unemployment is high? The case of South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2000-02, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  25. Michael P. Keane & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 1995. "The career decisions of young men," Working Papers 559, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  26. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June.
  27. Gregg, Paul, 2001. "The Impact of Youth Unemployment on Adult Unemployment in the NCDS," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(475), pages F626-53, November.
  28. John C. Ham & Samuel Rea, 1986. "Unemployment Insurance and Male Unemployment Duration in Canada," Working Papers 592, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
  29. Korpi, Tomas, 1995. "Effects of Manpower Policies on Duration Dependence in Re-employment Rates: The Example of Sweden," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 62(247), pages 353-71, August.
  30. Krishnan, Pramila, 1996. "Family Background, Education and Employment in Urban Ethiopia," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(1), pages 167-83, February.
  31. Ackum, Susanne, 1991. " Youth Unemployment, Labor Market Programs and Subsequent Earnings," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93(4), pages 531-43.
  32. Elbers, Chris & Ridder, Geert, 1982. "True and Spurious Duration Dependence: The Identifiability of the Proportional Hazard Model," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(3), pages 403-09, July.
  33. Narendranathan, W & Stewart, Mark B, 1993. "How Does the Benefit Effect Vary as Unemployment Spells Lengthen?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 361-81, Oct.-Dec..
  34. A. B. Atkinson, 1999. "The Economic Consequences of Rolling Back the Welfare State," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262011719, June.
  35. Pieter Serneels, 2007. "The Nature of Unemployment among Young Men in Urban Ethiopia," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(1), pages 170-186, 02.
  36. van den Berg, Gerard J & van Ours, Jan C, 1994. "Unemployment Dynamics and Duration Dependence in France, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(423), pages 432-43, March.
  37. J Richardson, 1997. "Can Active Labour Market Policy Work? Some Theoretical Considerations," CEP Discussion Papers dp0331, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  38. Gregory, Mary & Jukes, Robert, 2001. "Unemployment and Subsequent Earnings: Estimating Scarring among British Men 1984-94," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(475), pages F607-25, November.
  39. Trivedi, P K & Alexander, J N, 1989. "Reemployment Probability and Multiple Unemployment Spells: A Partial-Likelihood Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(3), pages 395-401, July.
  40. Lynch, Lisa M., 1985. "State dependency in youth unemployment : A lost generation?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 71-84, April.
  41. Robert H. Topel & Michael P. Ward, 1988. "Job Mobility and the Careers of Young Men," NBER Working Papers 2649, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  42. Paul Glewwe & Nauman Ilias, 1996. "The determinants of school attainment in sub-Saharan Africa: A case study of Ghana," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 395-413.
  43. Arulampalam, Wiji & Booth, Alison L & Taylor, Mark P, 2000. "Unemployment Persistence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 24-50, January.
  44. Foley, M.C., 1997. "Determinants of Unemployment Duration in Russia," Papers 779, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  45. J. Richardson, 1997. "Can active labour market policy work? Some theoretical considerations," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20354, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  46. Edin, Per-Anders, 1989. " Unemployment Duration and Competing Risks: Evidence from Sweden," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 91(4), pages 639-53.
  47. Alfonso Alba-Ramírez, 1998. "Re-employment probabilities of young workers in Spain," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 22(2), pages 201-224, May.
  48. Micklewright, John & Nagy, Gyula, 1996. "Labour market policy and the unemployed in Hungary," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 819-828, April.
  49. Trivedi, P K & Hui, W T, 1987. "An Empirical Study of Long-term Unemployment in Australia," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(1), pages 20-42, January.
  50. van den Berg, Gerard J, 1990. "Search Behaviour, Transitions to Nonparticipation and the Duration of Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(402), pages 842-65, September.
  51. T. Addison, John & Portugal, Pedro, 1998. "Some specification issues in unemployment duration analysis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 53-66, March.
  52. Tunali, Insan & Assaad, Ragui, 1992. "Market Structure and Spells of Employment and Unemployment: Evidence from the Construction Sector in Egypt," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(4), pages 339-67, Oct.-Dec..
  53. David Turnham, 1993. "Employment Creation and Development Strategy," OECD Development Centre Policy Briefs 7, OECD Publishing.
  54. Moffitt, Robert, 1985. "Unemployment insurance and the distribution of unemployment spells," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 85-101, April.
  55. Vodopivec, Milan, 1995. "Unemployment insurance and duration of unemployment : evidence from Slovenia's transition," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1552, The World Bank.
  56. Arulampalam, Wiji & Stewart, Mark B, 1995. "The Determinants of Individual Unemployment Durations in an Era of High Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 321-32, March.
  57. Jean-Yves Bienvenue & Lucette Carter & Olivier Favereau & Jacques Zighera, 1997. "Differential Analysis of Unemployment Duration with Emphasis on Long-Term Unemployment," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 11(1), pages 53-82, 04.
  58. Jackman, Richard & Layard, Richard, 1991. "Does Long-term Unemployment Reduce a Person's Chance of a Job? A Time-Series Test," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 58(229), pages 93-106, February.
  59. Abbring, Jaap H. & van den Berg, Gerard J. & van Ours, Jan C., 2002. "The anatomy of unemployment dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(10), pages 1785-1824, December.
  60. Appleton, Simon & Knight, John & Song, Lina & Xia, Qingjie, 2002. "Labor retrenchment in China: Determinants and consequences," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 252-275.
  61. Glewwe, P. & Jacoby, H., 1992. "Estimating the Determinants of Cognitive Achivement in Low-Income Countries," Papers 91, World Bank - Living Standards Measurement.
  62. Mark C. Foley, 1997. "Determinants of Unemployment Duration in Russia," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 81, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  63. van Ours, J.C. & van den Berg, G.J., 1994. "Unemployment Dynamics and Duration Dependence in France, the Netherlands and the UK," Other publications TiSEM 941b66a3-a3a7-4182-9d31-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  64. William T. Dickens & Kevin Lang, 1991. "An Analysis of the Nature of Unemployment in Sri Lanka," NBER Working Papers 3777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  65. Hernaes, E. & Strom, S., 1995. "Heterogeneity and Unemployment Duration," Memorandum 28/1995, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  66. van den Berg, G. & van Ours, J.C., 1996. "Unemployment dynamics and duration dependence," Other publications TiSEM 4374742f-8d86-458d-9ab3-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2002-13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Richard Payne)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.