IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Modeling the time to an initial public offering: When does the fruit ripen?

  • Yamin Ahmad


  • Russell Kashian


This paper investigates the characteristics possessed by credit unions who have converted to mutual savings institutions, which might lead them to demutualize and become publicly traded banks. We adopt a duration model framework to examine these characteristics. Our key findings are as follows. First, we find evidence of positive duration dependence in the data we examine. Second, we find that the hazard of an IPO issue increases in two waves. The first occurs between three and a half to four years reflecting the increased transition intensity for those who wish to demutualize early. However, the majority of the institutions in our sample do so by approximately eight years after conversion, and this is where the second spike in the hazard occurs. Finally, upon estimating the model with Cox’s (1975) semi-parametric partial likelihood approach, we find the probability that a converted institution will issue an IPO is influenced to a large extent by various measures that capture asset quality, in particular through measures that are equity driven. However, contrary to what one might expect, we find that total assets do not appear to influence the hazard rate.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 391-414

in new window

Handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:34:y:2010:i:4:p:391-414
Contact details of provider: Web page:

Order Information: Web:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. A. Cole, Rebel & Mehran, Hamid, 1998. "The effect of changes in ownership structure on performance: Evidence from the thrift industry," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 291-317, December.
  2. Feinberg, Robert M. & Rahman, A. F. M. Ataur, 2001. "A causality test of the relationship between bank and credit union lending rates in local markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 271-275, May.
  3. Allen N. Berger & Anthony Saunders & Joseph M. Scalise & Gregory F. Udell, 1997. "The effects of bank mergers and acquisitions on small business lending," Proceedings 549, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  4. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R, 1995. " The New Issues Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 23-51, March.
  5. Ritter, Jay R, 1991. " The Long-run Performance of Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 3-27, March.
  6. Peristiani, Stavros & Wizman, Thierry A., 1997. "Mutual-to-stock conversions in the thrift industry in the 1990s," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 95-116.
  7. Hamid Mehran & Stavros Peristiani, 2009. "Financial visibility and the decision to go private," Staff Reports 376, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  8. Marco Pagano & Fabio Panetta & Luigi Zingales, 1995. "Why Do Companies Go Public? An Empirical Analysis," NBER Working Papers 5367, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 1995. "Why do banks disappear? The determinants of U.S. bank failures and acquisitions," Working Papers 1995-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  10. Haluk Unal, 1997. "Regulatory Misconceptions in Pricing Thrift Conversions: A Closer Look at the Appraisal Process," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 239-254, June.
  11. Kennan, John, 1985. "The duration of contract strikes in U.S. manufacturing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 5-28, April.
  12. Robert Feinberg, 2002. "Credit Unions: Fringe Suppliers or Cournot Competitors?," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 105-113, March.
  13. Aruna Srinivasan & B. Frank King, 1998. "Credit union issues," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 3, pages 32-41.
  14. Randolph P. Beatty & Jay R. Ritter, . "Investment Banking, Reputation and the Underpricing of Initial Public Offerings," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 2-85, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  15. Masulis, Ronald W., 1987. "Changes in ownership structure : Conversions of mutual savings and loans to stock charter," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 29-59, March.
  16. Dario Focarelli & Fabio Panetta, 2003. "Are Mergers Beneficial to Consumers? Evidence from the Market for Bank Deposits," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1152-1172, September.
  17. Maksimovic, Vojislav & Unal, Haluk, 1993. " Issue Size Choice and "Underpricing" in Thrift Mutual-to-Stock Conversions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1659-92, December.
  18. Katz, Lawrence F & Meyer, Bruce D, 1990. "Unemployment Insurance, Recall Expectations, and Unemployment Outcomes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(4), pages 973-1002, November.
  19. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June.
  20. Fabio Panetta & Dario Focarelli, 2003. "Are Mergers Beneficial to Consumers? Evidence from the Italian Market for Bank Deposits," CEIS Research Paper 10, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
  21. Robert M. Feinberg & A.F.M. Ataur Rahman, 2006. "Are Credit Unions Just Small Banks? Determinants of Loan Rates in Local Consumer Lending Markets," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 647-659, Fall.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:34:y:2010:i:4:p:391-414. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)

or (Christopher F Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.