Time to Dropout From College: A Hazard Model with Endogenous Waiting
Using data from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79), we investigate the college attendance, dropout, and graduate behavior of high school graduates. Bivariate duration models, which allow the unobserved determinants of spell durations to be correlated across spells, are developed and used to study the impact of the waiting time from high school graduation until college enrollment on college dropout and graduation rates. We find that delaying college entry after graduating high school significantly increases the chances of college dropout and reduces the probability of attaining a four-year degree. Among those who first enroll in four-year institutions, delaying college entry by one year after high school graduation reduces the probability of graduating with a four- year degree by up to 32 percent in models that account for the endogeneity of delaying enrollment. There is also empirical evidence that the negative impact of delayed enrollment on graduation probabilities varies by Armed Forces Qualifying Test (AFQT) score with the largest estimated impact of delaying occurring for those with low AFQT scores.
|Date of creation:|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 3-300 Carlson School of Management, 321 19th Avenue South, Minneapolis, MN 55455-0438|
Phone: (612) 624-2500
Fax: (612) 624-8360
Web page: http://www.chrls.csom.umn.edu/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- McCall, B.P., 1993.
"Unemployment Insurance Rules, Joblessness, and Part-Time Work,"
93-07, Minnesota - Industrial Relations Center.
- McCall, Brian P, 1996. "Unemployment Insurance Rules, Joblessness, and Part-Time Work," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(3), pages 647-82, May.
- Robert Kominski, 1990. "Estimating the National High School Dropout Rate," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 27(2), pages 303-311, May.
- Cameron, Stephen V & Heckman, James J, 1993.
"The Nonequivalence of High School Equivalents,"
Journal of Labor Economics,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 11(1), pages 1-47, January.
- Stephen V. Cameron & James J. Heckman, 2001. "The Dynamics of Educational Attainment for Black, Hispanic, and White Males," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(3), pages 455-499, June.
- Susan M. Dynarski, 1999.
"Does Aid Matter? Measuring the Effect of Student Aid on College Attendance and Completion,"
NBER Working Papers
7422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Susan M. Dynarski, 2003. "Does Aid Matter? Measuring the Effect of Student Aid on College Attendance and Completion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 279-288, March.
- Dynarski, Susan, 2001. "Does Aid Matter? Measuring the Effect of Student Aid on College Attendance and Completion," Working Paper Series rwp01-034, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Anderson, Patricia M, 1992. "Time-Varying Effects of Recall Expectation, a Reemployment Bonus, and Job Counseling on Unemployment Durations," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 10(1), pages 99-115, January.
- Robert J. Willis & Sherwin Rosen, 1978.
"Education and Self-Selection,"
NBER Working Papers
0249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sueyoshi, Glenn T., 1992. "Semiparametric proportional hazards estimation of competing risks models with time-varying covariates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1-2), pages 25-58.
- Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June.
- Murphy, Kevin M & Welch, Finis, 1993. "Inequality and Relative Wages," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 104-09, May.
- Joseph G. Altonji, 1991.
"The Demand for and Return to Education When Education Outcomes are Uncertain,"
NBER Working Papers
3714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Altonji, Joseph G, 1993. "The Demand for and Return to Education When Education Outcomes Are Uncertain," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 11(1), pages 48-83, January.
- Stephen V. Cameron & James J. Heckman, 1998. "Life Cycle Schooling and Dynamic Selection Bias: Models and Evidence for Five Cohorts of American Males," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(2), pages 262-333, April.
- Lawrence F. Katz, 1986. "Layoffs, Recall and the Duration of Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 1825, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Manski, Charles F., 1989. "Schooling as experimentation: a reappraisal of the postsecondary dropout phenomenon," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 305-312, August.
- Javier Díaz-Giménez & Vincenzo Quadrini & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 1997. "Dimensions of inequality: facts on the U.S. distributions of earnings, income, and wealth," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 3-21.
- Stephen L. DesJardins & Dennis A. Ahlburg & Brian P. McCall, 2002. "Simulating the Longitudinal Effects of Changes in Financial Aid on Student Departure from College," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 37(3), pages 653-679.
- Derek Neal, 1998.
"The Complexity of Job Mobility Among Young Men,"
NBER Working Papers
6662, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aaron S. Edlin, 1993. "Is College Financial Aid Equitable and Efficient?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 143-158, Spring.
- Kane, Thomas J & Rouse, Cecilia Elena, 1995. "Labor-Market Returns to Two- and Four-Year College," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 600-614, June.
- Audrey Light, 1995. "The Effects of Interrupted Schooling on Wages," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 30(3), pages 472-502.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hrr:papers:0102. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mary Helen Walker)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.