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Fiscal Remedies for Japan's Slump


  • Laurence Ball


This paper asks how a fiscal expansion would affect Japan. It uses a textbook-style macro model calibrated to fit the Japanese economy. According to the results, Japan%u2019s output slump would be ended by a fiscal transfer of 6.6% of GDP. This policy raises the debt-income ratio in the short run, but it reduces this ratio in the long run through higher inflation and tax revenue. The financing of the transfer -- bonds or money -- affects debt in the short run but not the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurence Ball, 2005. "Fiscal Remedies for Japan's Slump," NBER Working Papers 11374, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11374
    Note: EFG ME PE

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Krugman, Paul, 2000. "Thinking About the Liquidity Trap," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 221-237, December.
    2. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
    3. Mitsuhiro Fukao, 2006. "Financial Strains and the Zero Lower Bound: The Japanese Experience," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy with Very Low Inflation in the Pacific Rim, NBER-EASE, Volume 15, pages 203-232 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Bennett T. McCallum, 2000. "Alternative monetary policy rules : a comparison with historical settings for the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 49-79.
    5. Takeo Hoshi & Anil K. Kashyap, 2004. "Japan's Financial Crisis and Economic Stagnation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 3-26, Winter.
    6. Alan J. Auerbach & Maurice Obstfeld, 2005. "The Case for Open-Market Purchases in a Liquidity Trap," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 110-137, March.
    7. Marvin Goodfriend, 2000. "Overcoming the zero bound on interest rate policy," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 1007-1057.
    8. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2004. "Happy News from the Dismal Science: Reassessing the Japanese Fiscal Policy and Sustainability," NBER Working Papers 10988, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Ball, Laurence, 1999. "Efficient Rules for Monetary Policy," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 63-83, April.
    10. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    11. Fujiki, Hiroshi & Hsiao, Cheng & Shen, Yan, 2002. "Is There a Stable Money Demand Function under the Low Interest Rate Policy? A Panel Data Analysis," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 20(2), pages 1-23, April.
    12. Yasuo Hirose & Koichiro Kamada, 2002. "Time-Varying NAIRU and Potential Growth in Japan," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series Research and Statistics D, Bank of Japan.
    13. Daniel Leigh, 2004. "Monetary Policy and the Dangers of Deflation:Lessons from Japan," Economics Working Paper Archive 511, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    14. Adam S. Posen, 1998. "Restoring Japan's Economic Growth," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 35.
    15. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 2001. "The Great Recession: Lessons for Macroeconomic Policy from Japan," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(2), pages 93-186.
    16. Ryuzo Miyao, 2002. "Liquidity Trap and the Stability of Money Demand: Is Japan Really Trapped at the Zero Bound?," Discussion Paper Series 127, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
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    Cited by:

    1. Evans, George W. & Guse, Eran & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2008. "Liquidity traps, learning and stagnation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1438-1463, November.
    2. Ali al-Nowaihi & Sanjit Dhami, 2011. "Strategic monetary and fiscal policy interaction in a liquidity trap," Discussion Papers in Economics 11/43, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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