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Fiscal Inflation in Japan : The Role of Unfunded Fiscal Shocks

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  • SUNAKAWA, Takeki

Abstract

We investigate the extent to which fiscal factors have contributed to inflation in Japan over the past four decades. Despite sustained fiscal expansion and rising debt since the 1990s, inflation remained low until recent years. Using the medium-scale DSGE model developed by Bianchi et al. (2023), we estimate the model with Japanese data and find that, in contrast to the U.S. case, unfunded fiscal shocks are not the main drivers of inflation in Japan. Instead, real demand and supply shocks, along with accommodative monetary policy, have played more significant roles in shaping inflation dynamics., First draft: July 2005. This draft: September 2025

Suggested Citation

  • SUNAKAWA, Takeki, 2025. "Fiscal Inflation in Japan : The Role of Unfunded Fiscal Shocks," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-151, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    • Handle: RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-151
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nao Sudo & Masaki Tanaka, 2021. "Quantifying Stock and Flow Effects of QE," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(7), pages 1719-1755, October.
    2. Francesco Bianchi & Renato Faccini & Leonardo Melosi, 2023. "A Fiscal Theory of Persistent Inflation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(4), pages 2127-2179.
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    8. Yasuo Hirose & Atsushi Inoue, 2016. "The Zero Lower Bound and Parameter Bias in an Estimated DSGE Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(4), pages 630-651, June.
    9. Yasuo Hirose & Takeki Sunakawa, 2015. "Parameter bias in an estimated DSGE model: does nonlinearity matter?," CAMA Working Papers 2015-46, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
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    1. Tomomi Miyazaki & Haruo Kondoh & Huanhuan Guo & Naoto Tanemoto, 2025. "Effects of Fiscal Policy on Employment under the Zero Lower Bound in Japan: An Empirical Investigation with Gender and Regional Heterogeneity," Discussion Papers 2524, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.

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