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Fiscal Inflation in Japan: The Role of Unfunded Fiscal Shocks

Author

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  • Takeki Sunakawa

    (Professor, Faculty of Economics, Hitotsubashi University (E-mail: takeki.sunakawa@gmail.com))

Abstract

We investigate the extent to which fiscal factors have contributed to inflation in Japan over the past four decades. Despite sustained fiscal expansion and rising debt since the 1990s, inflation remained low until recent years. Using the medium-scale DSGE model developed by Bianchi et al. (2023), we estimate the model with Japanese data and find that, in contrast to the U.S. case, unfunded fiscal shocks are not the main drivers of inflation in Japan. Instead, real demand and supply shocks, along with accommodative monetary policy, have played more significant roles in shaping inflation dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Takeki Sunakawa, 2025. "Fiscal Inflation in Japan: The Role of Unfunded Fiscal Shocks," IMES Discussion Paper Series 25-E-14, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:25-e-14
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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