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Government Size, Unemployment and Inflation Nexus in Eight Large Emerging Market Economies

Author

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  • Antonio Afonso

    (ISEG-Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Universidade de Lisboa; REM-Research in Economics and Mathematics UECE- Research Unit on Complexity and Economics)

  • Hüseyin Sen

    (Ankara Yildirim Beyazit University)

  • Ayse Kaya

    (Izmir Kâtip Çelebi University)

Abstract

Using annual data for a panel of eight large emerging market economies from 1980 to 2015, we uncover the underlying linkages between government size, unemployment, and inflation by using the panel cointegration and causality frameworks. Overall, our empirical results show that there exists a unidirectional causality running from government size to both unemployment and inflation. The results also tell that the impact of government size on unemployment and inflation varies with how government size is defined or measured. In the case of the ratio of government consumption spending to GDP is chosen as the proxy measure of government size, the causality is one-way and runs from government size to both unemployment and inflation. In addition, indirect taxes are in a significant positive causal association with unemployment, while direct taxes are in a close connection with inflation in the full-country sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio Afonso & Hüseyin Sen & Ayse Kaya, 2021. "Government Size, Unemployment and Inflation Nexus in Eight Large Emerging Market Economies," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 235(1), pages 133-170, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:hpe:journl:y:2021:v:236:i:1:p:133-170
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Orkun ÇELIK & Elif ERER, 2021. "The Role of Gender in the Government Expenditure and Unemployment Nexus: An Investigation at Regional Level for Turkey," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 112-128, June.
    3. Burcu Yuruk & Hakan Acaroglu, 2021. "An Asymmetric Causality Analysis of the Relationship between Government Expenditure and Unemployment in Turkey," Journal of Economy Culture and Society, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 63(63), pages 93-110, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Government size; Unemployment; Inflation; Emerging market economies; Panel cointegration; Causality analysis.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H10 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - General
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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