IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/hpe/journl/y2021v236i1p133-170.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Government Size, Unemployment and Inflation Nexus in Eight Large Emerging Market Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Antonio Afonso

    (ISEG-Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Universidade de Lisboa; REM-Research in Economics and Mathematics UECE- Research Unit on Complexity and Economics)

  • Hüseyin Sen

    (Ankara Yildirim Beyazit University)

  • Ayse Kaya

    (Izmir Kâtip Çelebi University)

Abstract

Using annual data for a panel of eight large emerging market economies from 1980 to 2015, we uncover the underlying linkages between government size, unemployment, and inflation by using the panel cointegration and causality frameworks. Overall, our empirical results show that there exists a unidirectional causality running from government size to both unemployment and inflation. The results also tell that the impact of government size on unemployment and inflation varies with how government size is defined or measured. In the case of the ratio of government consumption spending to GDP is chosen as the proxy measure of government size, the causality is one-way and runs from government size to both unemployment and inflation. In addition, indirect taxes are in a significant positive causal association with unemployment, while direct taxes are in a close connection with inflation in the full-country sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio Afonso & Hüseyin Sen & Ayse Kaya, 2021. "Government Size, Unemployment and Inflation Nexus in Eight Large Emerging Market Economies," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 235(1), pages 133-170, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:hpe:journl:y:2021:v:236:i:1:p:133-170
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hpe-rpe.org/wp-admin/admin-ajax.php?juwpfisadmin=false&action=wpfd&task=file.download&wpfd_category_id=207&wpfd_file_id=4748&token=781c9cee6080ca63e82ed1a5149c2803&preview=1
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1997. "Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number rome97-1, March.
    2. Karras, Georgios, 1993. "Employment and Output Effects of Government Spending: Is Government Size Important?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(3), pages 354-369, July.
    3. Chihwa Kao & Min‐Hsien Chiang & Bangtian Chen, 1999. "International R&D Spillovers: An Application of Estimation and Inference in Panel Cointegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 691-709, November.
    4. Eric M. Engen & Jonathan Skinner, 1992. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 4223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Folster, Stefan & Henrekson, Magnus, 2001. "Growth effects of government expenditure and taxation in rich countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 1501-1520, August.
    6. Arpita Ghose & Sutapa Das, 2013. "Government size and economic growth in emerging market economies: a panel co-integration approach," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 14-38, March.
    7. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 597-625, June.
    8. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    9. Dimitris Christopoulos & John Loizides & Efthymios Tsionas, 2005. "The Abrams curve of government size and unemployment: evidence from panel data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(10), pages 1193-1199.
    10. Cuciniello, Vincenzo, 2009. "The impact of fiscal-monetary policy interactions on government size and macroeconomic performance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 918-925, September.
    11. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
    12. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1984. "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Brian Griffiths & Geoffrey E. Wood (ed.), Monetarism in the United Kingdom, pages 15-41, Palgrave Macmillan.
    13. Marta Campillo & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1997. "Why Does Inflation Differ across Countries?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 335-362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Vanessa Smith, L. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2013. "Panel unit root tests in the presence of a multifactor error structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 94-115.
    15. Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer, 2006. "The Case for Fiscal Policy," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Philip Arestis & Jesus Ferreiro & Felipe Serrano (ed.), Financial Developments in National and International Markets, chapter 6, pages 103-117, Palgrave Macmillan.
    16. Woodford, Michael, 1994. "Monetary Policy and Price Level Determinacy in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(3), pages 345-380.
    17. Kao, Chihwa & Chiang, Min-Hsien & Chen, Bangtian, 1999. "International R&D Spillovers: An Application of Estimation and Inference in Panel Cointegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 691-709, Special I.
    18. Burton A. Abrams & Siyan Wang, 2007. "The Effect of Government Size on the Steady-State Unemployment Rate: An Error Correction Model," Working Papers 07-14, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
    19. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    20. Nolivos, Roberto Delhy & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2014. "The role of central bank independence on optimal taxation and seigniorage," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 440-458.
    21. Yamamura, Eiji, 2011. "Decomposition of the effect of government size on growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(3), pages 230-232, September.
    22. Sims, Christopher A, 1994. "A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(3), pages 381-399.
    23. Tamoya Christie, 2014. "The Effect Of Government Spending On Economic Growth: Testing The Non-Linear Hypothesis," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(2), pages 183-204, April.
    24. Siyan Wang & Burton A. Abrams, 2011. "The Effect of Government Size on the Steady-State Unemployment Rate: A Dynamic Perspective," Working Papers 11-12, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
    25. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Swaroop, Vinaya & Heng-fu, Zou, 1996. "The composition of public expenditure and economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 313-344, April.
    26. Horst Feldmann, 2010. "Government size and unemployment in developing countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 289-292, February.
    27. Burton A. Abrams & Siyan Wang, 2007. "Government Outlays, Economic Growth and Unemployment: A VAR Model," Working Papers 07-13, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
    28. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide, 2010. "Government size, composition, volatility and economic growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 517-532, December.
    29. António Afonso & Juan Alegre, 2011. "Economic growth and budgetary components: a panel assessment for the EU," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 703-723, December.
    30. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    31. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    32. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-652, Special I.
    33. Burton A. Abrams & Siyan Wang, 2006. "The Effect of Government Size on the Steady-State Unemployment Rate: A Structural Error Correction Model," Working Papers 06-05, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
    34. Antonio Afonso & Ludger Schuknecht & Vito Tanzi, 2010. "Public sector efficiency: evidence for new EU member states and emerging markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(17), pages 2147-2164.
    35. Horst Feldmann, 2009. "Government size and unemployment:evidence from developing countries," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 43(1), pages 315-330, September.
    36. Chen, Sheng-Tung & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2005. "Government size and economic growth in Taiwan: A threshold regression approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1051-1066, December.
    37. Woodford, Michael, 2001. "Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(3), pages 669-728, August.
    38. Marco Battaglini & Stephen Coate, 2011. "Fiscal Policy and Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 17562, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    39. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
    40. Dimitris Christopoulos & Efthymios Tsionas, 2002. "Unemployment and government size: Is there any credible causality?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(12), pages 797-800.
    41. Tai Dang Nguyen, 2016. "Impact Of Government Spending On Inflation In Asian Emerging Economies: Evidence From India, China, And Indonesia," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(05), pages 1171-1200, December.
    42. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2003. "Dynamic panel estimation and homogeneity testing under cross section dependence *," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 217-259, June.
    43. Mr. Gerwin Bell & Norikazu Tawara, 2009. "The Size of Government and U.S.-European Differences in Economic Performance," IMF Working Papers 2009/092, International Monetary Fund.
    44. António Afonso & Ludger Schuknecht & Vito Tanzi, 2005. "Public sector efficiency: An international comparison," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 321-347, June.
    45. Luca Sala, 2004. "The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: Identifying Restrictions and Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 257, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    46. Dar, Atul A. & AmirKhalkhali, Sal, 2002. "Government size, factor accumulation, and economic growth: evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(7-8), pages 679-692, November.
    47. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    48. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-670, Special I.
    49. Gerald Scully, 1989. "The size of the state, economic growth and the efficient utilization of national resources," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 149-164, November.
    50. Landau, Daniel, 1986. "Government and Economic Growth in the Less Developed Countries: An Empirical Study for 1960-1980," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 35-75, October.
    51. Niloy Bose & M. Emranul Haque & Denise R. Osborn, 2007. "Public Expenditure And Economic Growth: A Disaggregated Analysis For Developing Countries," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(5), pages 533-556, September.
    52. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    53. Abrams, Burton A, 1999. "The Effect of Government Size on the Unemployment Rate," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 99(3-4), pages 395-401, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Manuela CHETUE Komguep & Luc NDEFFO Nembot, 2021. "Why Do Employment Policies Fail to Reduce Unemployment in Sub-Saharan Africa? Looking towards the brain drain," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(2), pages 615-633.
    2. Orkun ÇELIK & Elif ERER, 2021. "The Role of Gender in the Government Expenditure and Unemployment Nexus: An Investigation at Regional Level for Turkey," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 112-128, June.
    3. Burcu Yuruk & Hakan Acaroglu, 2021. "An Asymmetric Causality Analysis of the Relationship between Government Expenditure and Unemployment in Turkey," Journal of Economy Culture and Society, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 63(63), pages 93-110, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ahmet AYSU & Gökhan DÖKMEN, 2011. "An Investigation on the Relationship between Government Size and Unemployment Rate: Evidence from OECD Countries," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 16(16).
    2. Hajamini, Mehdi & Falahi, Mohammad Ali, 2018. "Economic growth and government size in developed European countries: A panel threshold approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-13.
    3. Eberhardt, Markus & Teal, Francis, 2008. "Modeling technology and technological change in manufacturing: how do countries differ?," MPRA Paper 10690, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Hüseyin Şen & Ayşe Kaya & Ayşegül Durucan, 2023. "New insights into the growth-maximizing size of government: evidence and implications for Turkey," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2243-2296, August.
    5. Xuejiao Ma & Qichuan Jiang, 2019. "How to Balance the Trade-off between Economic Development and Climate Change?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-30, March.
    6. Acikgoz, Senay & Ben Ali, Mohamed Sami, 2019. "Where does economic growth in the Middle Eastern and North African countries come from?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 172-183.
    7. Juan Carlos Aquino & N. R. Ramírez-Rondán, 2020. "Estimating factor shares from nonstationary panel data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2353-2380, May.
    8. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2011. "Econometrics For Grumblers: A New Look At The Literature On Cross‐Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 109-155, February.
    9. Jäger, Philipp & Schmidt, Torsten, 2016. "The political economy of public investment when population is aging: A panel cointegration analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 145-158.
    10. Fang, Zheng & Chang, Youngho, 2016. "Energy, human capital and economic growth in Asia Pacific countries — Evidence from a panel cointegration and causality analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 177-184.
    11. repec:zbw:rwirep:0557 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Mehmet Ugur & Siew Ling Yew, 2017. "Does Government Size Affect Per-Capita Income Growth? A Hierarchical Meta-Regression Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(300), pages 142-171, March.
    13. Hamit-Haggar, Mahamat, 2012. "Greenhouse gas emissions, energy consumption and economic growth: A panel cointegration analysis from Canadian industrial sector perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 358-364.
    14. Facchini, François & Melki, Mickaël, 2013. "Efficient government size: France in the 20th century," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-14.
    15. Facchini, François & Melki, Mickaël, 2013. "Efficient government size: France in the 20th century," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-14.
    16. Jesus Clemente & Carmen Marcuello & Antonio Montañes, 2012. "Government Social Spending and GDP: has there been a change in social policy?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(22), pages 2895-2905, August.
    17. Tsangyao Chang & Chien-Chiang Lee & Hsiao-Ping Chu, 2015. "Revisiting the Defense-Growth nexus in European countries," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 341-356, June.
    18. Cardi, Olivier & Restout, Romain, 2015. "Imperfect mobility of labor across sectors: a reappraisal of the Balassa–Samuelson effect," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 249-265.
    19. Karikallio, Hanna, 2015. "Cross-commodity Price Transmission and Integration of the EU Livestock Market of Pork and Beef: Panel Time-series Approach," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211832, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    20. Lin, Boqiang & Omoju, Oluwasola E., 2017. "Focusing on the right targets: Economic factors driving non-hydro renewable energy transition," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 52-63.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Government size; Unemployment; Inflation; Emerging market economies; Panel cointegration; Causality analysis.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H10 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - General
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hpe:journl:y:2021:v:236:i:1:p:133-170. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Miguel Gómez de Antonio (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iefgves.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.