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An Asymmetric Causality Analysis of the Relationship between Government Expenditure and Unemployment in Turkey

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  • Burcu Yuruk

    (Uşak University, Applied Sciences Faculty of Accounting and Finance Management Department, Uşak, Turkey)

  • Hakan Acaroglu

    (Eskisehir Osmangazi University, Economics and Administrative Sciences Faculty, Department of Economics, Eskisehir, Turkey)

Abstract

The ongoing debates regarding the optimal government expenditure share have been a critical concern of economic policy for many years. Therefore, determining the share of government expenditure in the economy is important in terms of macroeconomic variables. The relationship between unemployment, which is one of the indicated macroeconomic variables, and public sector size is expressed by Abrams (1999) through the Abrams curve hypothesis. According to this hypothesis, large public sector size increases the unemployment rate. In this study, the validity of the Abrams curve hypothesis in Turkey is being analyzed with Hatemi-J’s (2012) asymmetric causality test that considers the cumulative positive–negative changes of series using the 1985–2019 time series data. In the scope of the work, the use of asymmetric causality analysis is valuable for revealing the hidden causality relationship. According to the findings obtained from the analysis, an asymmetrical causality relationship is found between unemployment positive shock and government expenditure positive shock. An impulse-response analysis was applied to determine the direction of the asymmetric causality relationship, revealing that positive shocks of unemployment increase the positive shocks of government expenditure. The results reveal that the Abrams curve hypothesis is invalid. Therefore, the financial burden of government expenditure in fighting against unemployment should be reduced. Active employment policies aimed at creating employment opportunities should be prioritized for permanently reducing unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Burcu Yuruk & Hakan Acaroglu, 2021. "An Asymmetric Causality Analysis of the Relationship between Government Expenditure and Unemployment in Turkey," Journal of Economy Culture and Society, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 63(63), pages 93-110, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ist:iujecs:v:63:y:2021:1:p:93-110
    DOI: 10.26650/JECS2020-0090
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dimitris Christopoulos & John Loizides & Efthymios Tsionas, 2005. "The Abrams curve of government size and unemployment: evidence from panel data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(10), pages 1193-1199.
    2. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    3. Siyan Wang & Burton A. Abrams, 2011. "The Effect of Government Size on the Steady-State Unemployment Rate: A Dynamic Perspective," Working Papers 11-12, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
    4. Horst Feldmann, 2010. "Government size and unemployment in developing countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 289-292, February.
    5. Antonio Afonso & Hüseyin Sen & Ayse Kaya, 2021. "Government Size, Unemployment and Inflation Nexus in Eight Large Emerging Market Economies," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 235(1), pages 133-170, March.
    6. Ant—nio Afonso & Ludger Schuknecht & Vito Tanzi, 2023. "The size of government," Chapters, in: António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles & Ana Venâncio (ed.), Handbook on Public Sector Efficiency, chapter 1, pages 6-31, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Dimitris Christopoulos & Efthymios Tsionas, 2002. "Unemployment and government size: Is there any credible causality?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(12), pages 797-800.
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