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The Effect of Government Size on the Steady-State Unemployment Rate: An Error Correction Model

Author

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  • Burton A. Abrams

    (Department of Economics,University of Delaware)

  • Siyan Wang

    (Department of Economics,University of Delaware)

Abstract

The relationship between government size and the unemployment rate is investigated using an error-correction model that describes both the short-run dynamics and long-run determination of the unemployment rate. Using data from twenty OECD countries from 1970 to 1999 and after correcting for simultaneity bias, we find that government size, measured as total government outlays as a percentage of GDP, plays a significant role in affecting the steady-state unemployment rate. Importantly, when government outlays are disaggregated, transfers and subsidies are found to significantly affect the steady-state unemployment rate while government purchases of goods and services play no significant role.

Suggested Citation

  • Burton A. Abrams & Siyan Wang, 2007. "The Effect of Government Size on the Steady-State Unemployment Rate: An Error Correction Model," Working Papers 07-14, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:dlw:wpaper:07-14.
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
    6. Abrams, Burton A, 1999. "The Effect of Government Size on the Unemployment Rate," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 99(3-4), pages 395-401, June.
    7. Michèle Belot & Jan C. van Ours, 2004. "Does the recent success of some OECD countries in lowering their unemployment rates lie in the clever design of their labor market reforms?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(4), pages 621-642, October.
    8. Karras, Georgios, 1993. "Employment and Output Effects of Government Spending: Is Government Size Important?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(3), pages 354-369, July.
    9. Nickell, Stephen & Layard, Richard, 1999. "Labor market institutions and economic performance," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 46, pages 3029-3084, Elsevier.
    10. Carmen Pagés-Serra, 2000. "The Cost of Job Security Regulation: Evidence from Latin American Labor Markets," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2000), pages 109-154.
    11. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages 1-33, March.
    12. Ziliak, James P, 1997. "Efficient Estimation with Panel Data When Instruments Are Predetermined: An Empirical Comparison of Moment-Condition Estimators," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(4), pages 419-431, October.
    13. Burton A. Abrams & Siyan Wang, 2007. "Government Outlays, Economic Growth and Unemployment: A VAR Model," Working Papers 07-13, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
    14. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
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    Cited by:

    1. Antonio Afonso & Hüseyin Sen & Ayse Kaya, 2021. "Government Size, Unemployment and Inflation Nexus in Eight Large Emerging Market Economies," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 235(1), pages 133-170, March.
    2. Orkun ÇELIK & Elif ERER, 2021. "The Role of Gender in the Government Expenditure and Unemployment Nexus: An Investigation at Regional Level for Turkey," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 112-128, June.
    3. Ahmet AYSU & Gökhan DÖKMEN, 2011. "An Investigation on the Relationship between Government Size and Unemployment Rate: Evidence from OECD Countries," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 16(16).
    4. Dear Mahnaz Rahmat & Khalil Saeidi, 2017. "The Effect of Government Development Expenditures on Unemployment Rate in the Provinces," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(5), pages 71-77.
    5. Burton A. Abrams & Siyan Wang, 2007. "Government Outlays, Economic Growth and Unemployment: A VAR Model," Working Papers 07-13, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • H10 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - General
    • H19 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Other
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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