Report NEP-MAC-2025-11-17

This is the archive for NEP-MAC, a report on new working papers in the area of Macroeconomics. Daniela Cialfi issued this report. It is usually issued weekly.

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Other reports in NEP-MAC

The following items were announced in this report:

• Junming Chen, 2025. "Monetary Policy, Financing Constraints, and Rational Asset Price Bubbles," Discussion Papers 25/04, Department of Economics, University of York.
• James Morley & Jieying Zhang, 2025. "Is Inflation Driven by Aggregate or Sectoral Output Gaps?," CAMA Working Papers 2025-58, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
• Gabriele Guaitoli, 2025. "Modelling the Aggregate Effects of Housing Supply Policies," Working Papers wpdea2516, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
• Nollenberger, Jeremiah, 2025. "Hands tied: Are some institutional arrangements more counter-cyclical?," ifso working paper series 56, University of Duisburg-Essen, Institute for Socioeconomics (ifso).
• Takeki Sunakawa, 2025. "Fiscal Inflation in Japan: The Role of Unfunded Fiscal Shocks," IMES Discussion Paper Series 25-E-14, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
• Corsetti, G. & Lloyd, S. & Marin, E. & Ostry, D., 2025. "U.S. Risk and Treasury Convenience," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2570, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
• Jakob Kozak & Hannah Salzberger & Wolfgang Schäfers, 2025. "Physical Climate Risk in Commercial Real Estate," ERES eres2025_141, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
• -, 2025. "United States economic outlook: 2024 year-in-review and first half of 2025," Oficina de la CEPAL en Washington (Estudios e Investigaciones) 82513, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
• Yukihiko Funaki & Yukio Koriyama & Satoshi Nakada & Yuki Tamura, 2025. "Characterizing the ELS Values with Fixed-Population Invariance Axioms," Papers 2511.04996, arXiv.org.
• Beznoska, Martin & Hentze, Tobias, 2025. "Stellungnahme zum Antrag "NRW muss funktionieren - Investitionsstau in NRW angehen": Antrag der Fraktion der SPD im Landtag Nordrhein-Westfalen (Drucksache 18/14010)," IW-Reports 52/2025, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute.
• Janet Currie & Lucy G. Hackett & Fernanda Marquez-Padilla, 2025. "Does Public Health Insurance Cause Crowding Into Public Facilities and Informality? The Case of Seguro Popular," NBER Working Papers 34465, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
• Adelaide Baronchelli & Alessandra Foresta & Roberto Ricciuti & Flavio Santi & Tadele Tefera, 2025. "Air Supremacy Is Not Enough: The Effect of Drone and Air Strikes on Terrorist Attacks in Somalia and Yemen," CESifo Working Paper Series 12242, CESifo.
• Andrée De Serres & Hélène Sicotte & Cynthia Aubert, 2025. "Building affordability over time: a study of three innovative nonprofit organizations on off-market housing in Montreal (Quebec, Canada)," ERES eres2025_112, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
• Jeremy Gabe & John Demas, 2025. "Financial Security or Money Trap? An ex post financial evaluation of repeat sale residential transactions in the USA," ERES eres2025_191, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
• Bruno Fava, 2025. "Training and Testing with Multiple Splits: A Central Limit Theorem for Split-Sample Estimators," Papers 2511.04957, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2025.
• Palma, J. G., 2025. "Latin America: how its neo-liberal reforms led to a rentier trilogy of high market inequality, mediocre investment rates and collapsing productivity growth. How to fix a system with so little entropy?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2572, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
• Aimable Nsabimana & Michael Kilumelume, 2025. "Health pandemic, job losses and recovery in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2025-77, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
• Marek Sedivy, 2025. "Life-cycle Consumption Expenditure and Inequality," Working Papers IES 2025/25, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Nov 2025.
• Luo, Xubei & Rajasekaran, Arvind Balaji & Scruggs, Andrew Conner, 2025. "Monitoring Global Aid Flows : A Novel Approach Using Large Language Models," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11248, The World Bank.
• Kohaut, Susanne & Möller, Iris & Oberfichtner, Michael, 2025. "Gender-Leadership-Gap in Deutschland: Frauen besetzen weniger als ein Drittel der obersten Führungspositionen (Gender-Leadership-Gap in Germany: Women hold less than one-third of top leadership positi," IAB-Kurzbericht 202524, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
• Andreas Dibiasi & Heiner Mikosch & Samad Sarferaz & Armin Steinbach, 2025. "Fiscal Responses to Monetary Policy: Insights From a Survey of Government Officials," CESifo Working Paper Series 12247, CESifo.
• Juan José Víquez-Rodríguez & Laura Campos-Quesada & Isaac Zúñiga-Arias, 2025. "Term Structure of Interest Rates in Costa Rican Colones (Zero-Coupon Curve): Methodology and Derivation of Forward Rates and the Exchange Risk Premium," Documentos de Trabajo 2508, Banco Central de Costa Rica.
• Zerres, Christopher & Seitz, Jürgen, 2025. "Praxisreport KI-Content-Analyse: Anwendung, Prozessreife und Investitionsperspektiven," Working Papers for Marketing & Management 84, Offenburg University, Department of Media and Information.
• Diego Comin & Robert C. Johnson & Callum Jones, 2025. "Supply Chain Constraints and Inflation," IMES Discussion Paper Series 25-E-15, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
• John Armstrong & Cristin Buescu & James Dalby & Rohan Hobbs, 2025. "Machine-learning a family of solutions to an optimal pension investment problem," Papers 2511.07045, arXiv.org.
• Assenza, Tiziana & Huber, Stefanie & Mogilevskaja, Anna & Schmidt, Tobias, 2025. "When Wording Changes What We Find: The Impact of Inflation Expectations on Spending," TSE Working Papers 25-1686, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
• Heng-fu Zou, 2025. "The Republic of Entrepreneurs: Letters, Science, and the Civic Mechanics of Modern Prosperity," CEMA Working Papers 798, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
• Salahodjaev, Raufhon, 2025. "Globalization and life satisfaction- evidence from Europe and Central Asia," MPRA Paper 125959, University Library of Munich, Germany.
• Purba Banerjee & Srikanth Iyer & Shashi Jain, 2025. "Robust Hedging of path-dependent options using a min-max algorithm," Papers 2511.00781, arXiv.org.
• Heng-fu Zou, 2025. "The Republic of Entrepreneurs: A Global History of Discovery, Diffusion, and Growth," CEMA Working Papers 801, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
• Höfelmann, Ludo & Huijgen, Timo, 2025. "Uitval zonder diploma: Aanleiding, Kansen en Toekomstintenties 2024," ROA Fact Sheets 005, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
• Hwang, Sunjoo, 2025. "The role of capital structure in real estate project financing: Risk, cost, and policy implications," KDI Focus 145, Korea Development Institute (KDI).
• Niens, Christine, 2024. "Equality in the labour market? The perspective of non-family permanently employed women and female apprentices in agriculture," GEWISOLA 64th Annual Conference, Giessen, Germany, September 25–27, 2024 364751, GEWISOLA.
• So-Yoon Cho & Jin-Young Kim & Kayoung Ban & Hyeng Keun Koo & Hyun-Gyoon Kim, 2025. "Diffolio: A Diffusion Model for Multivariate Probabilistic Financial Time-Series Forecasting and Portfolio Construction," Papers 2511.07014, arXiv.org.
• Bekkers, Eddy & Yilmaz, Ayse Nihal & Métivier, Jeanne & Tresa, Enxhi & Iunius, Lory & Xu, Ankai, 2025. "The impact of decarbonization on trade," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2025-08, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
• Erhan Bayraktar & Qi Feng & Zecheng Zhang & Zhaoyu Zhang, 2025. "Deep Neural Operator Learning for Probabilistic Models," Papers 2511.07235, arXiv.org.
• Hannah Salzberger & Tobias Just, 2025. "Urban Pulse or Suburban Ease: Unveiling the Future of Office Location," ERES eres2025_49, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
• Natalie Kessler & Poramapa Poonpakdee, 2025. "The Role of Ambiguity in the Monetary Policy Transmissions: Evidence from the European Repo Market," Working Papers 847, DNB.
• Monique Arkesteijn & Adinda Jongkind & Hedieh Arfa, 2025. "Understanding strategic behaviour in strategic real estate decision-making with decision support system in a public organisation," ERES eres2025_254, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
• Maximiliano Dvorkin & Melanie LeTourneau, 2025. "Navigating in the Dark: Using High-Frequency Private Data to Track the Labor Market," On the Economy 102071, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
• Luz, Gregorio & van Wee, Bert & Rodriguez, Daniel A. & Pereira, Rafael H. M. & Farber, Steven, 2025. "Measuring What Matters: Accessibility Measures to Evaluate Transport-Related Social Exclusion," SocArXiv 9rsgu_v1, Center for Open Science.
• Subhadarsini Parida & Cida Ghosn & Christhina Candido, 2025. "Evaluating stakeholder perspectives on why social capital creates value in the green bond market within the real estate and construction sectors," ERES eres2025_32, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
• Taehyeon Koo & Zijian Guo, 2025. "Distributionally Robust Synthetic Control: Ensuring Robustness Against Highly Correlated Controls and Weight Shifts," Papers 2511.02632, arXiv.org.
• Thom, Ferike & Gocht, Alexander, 2024. "Bridging Gaps: Linking Sectoral Models and Individual Dietary Behavior," GEWISOLA 64th Annual Conference, Giessen, Germany, September 25–27, 2024 364733, GEWISOLA.
• Korolija, Aleksandar, 2025. "Extractive Imperialism And The Experiences Of The “Lithium Triangle”," SocArXiv ksf8v_v1, Center for Open Science.
• Sweta Byahut & Jay Mittal, 2025. "Evaluation of the initial Heat Action Plans of Indian Cities," ERES eres2025_31, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
• Selensky, Friederike S. & Knierim, Andrea, 2024. "Nutrient management practices contribution to a social-ecological transformation towards circularity in the agricultural production," GEWISOLA 64th Annual Conference, Giessen, Germany, September 25–27, 2024 364758, GEWISOLA.
• Capodici, Angelo & Pirni, Alberto & Gadignani, Anna & Noci, Francesca & Giardelli, Lucia & Emdin, Michele & Giannoni, Alberto, 2025. "Humanizing Telemedicine through Recognition-Based Ethics," SocArXiv 8w9xk_v1, Center for Open Science.
• Marek Sedivy, 2025. "Intrahousehold Consumption Inequality over 24 Years: Evidence from Czechia," Working Papers IES 2025/24, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Nov 2025.
• Adrián Santonja & Laura Schmitz & Judit Vall, 2025. "Understanding the link between heat and intimate partner violence," Working Papers 2025/09, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
• Kee, Hiau Looi & Xie, Enze, 2025. "Nickel, Steel and Cars : Export Ban and Domestic Value-Added in Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11249, The World Bank.
• Gouzoulis, Giorgos & Papadopoulou, Aggela, 2025. "Financialization, Personal Debt Burden, & the Black-White Pay Gap in the United States," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1686, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
• Kevin Zielnicki & Guy Aridor & Aur'elien Bibaut & Allen Tran & Winston Chou & Nathan Kallus, 2025. "The Value of Personalized Recommendations: Evidence from Netflix," Papers 2511.07280, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2025.
• Chou, Phanith & Borey Bora, Chan & Phen, Bunthoeun & Kees, Swanns, 2025. "Constraints and Opportunities for Agricultural Climate Resilience through Local Technical Agroclimatic Committee Approach," 2nd ASEAN University Symposium for Sustainable Food Systems, IPB Bogor University of Agriculture, Indonesia, May 5-6, 2025 373371, Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
• Banerjee, Souvik & Mukhopadhyay, Sankar & Jaiswal, Preeti, 2025. "Motherhood and Labour Market Outcomes: Penalty or Premium?," IZA Discussion Papers 18246, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
• Josefine Quast, 2025. "Behind Schedule? Assessing Global Developments in the Provision of Economic Statistics," IMF Working Papers 2025/236, International Monetary Fund.
• Villalba, Roberto & Venus, Terese E. & Trappmann, Juliana & Sauer, Johannes, "undated". "The Smallholder Financial Inclusion index: measuring access and usage of financial services in the Global South," Agricultural Economics Society (AES) 98th Annual Conference, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK, March 18-20, 2024 355342, Agricultural Economics Society (AES).
• Zhang, Meng Le & Griffith, Gareth & Holland, Sally & Elliott, Martin, 2025. "Measuring the impact of Sure Start expansion in Northern Ireland on health and social care: Early Results," SocArXiv wz2qm_v1, Center for Open Science.
• Davide Luparello, 2025. "Why Do Contract Workers Earn Less? Evidence from India’s Auto Industry," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 25258, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
• Colette Salemi & Sebastian Anti & Jonathan Rigberg & Karishma Silva & Johannes Hoogeveen, 2025. "A New Expanded Dataset to Study Refugee Camps inSub-Saharan Africa 1999–2024," HiCN Working Papers 442, Households in Conflict Network.
• Tamara Broderick & Ali Jadbabaie & Vanessa Lin & Manuel Quintero & Arnab Sarker & Sean R. Sinclair, 2025. "Network and Risk Analysis of Surety Bonds," Papers 2511.05691, arXiv.org.
• Chao Lin, 2025. "The Influence Mechanism of Farmers' Financial Literacy on Participation of Rural Real Estate MortgageA Case Study of Yongfeng, China Pilot," ERES eres2025_126, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
• Osawe, Osayanmon Wellington & Adeyemo, Temitayo Adenike, "undated". "Does government or private support matter during crises? Panel data evidence from household response during the COVID-19 lockdown restrictions," Agricultural Economics Society (AES) 98th Annual Conference, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK, March 18-20, 2024 355347, Agricultural Economics Society (AES).
• Li, Xiaofei, 2024. "All for One and One for All: A Simulation Assessment of the Economic Value of Large-Scale On-Farm Experiment Network," Land, Farm & Agribusiness Management Department 373440, Harper Adams University, Land, Farm & Agribusiness Management Department.
• Fourné, Marius, 2025. "Cross-border transmission of climate policies through global production networks," IWH Discussion Papers 19/2025, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
• Moors, Annelies, 2025. "The Criminalization of the Joint Household: Evidencing Terrorism in the Case of Women Returnees from IS-territory in Dutch Courts," SocArXiv 7r25v_v1, Center for Open Science.
• Leonardo N. Ferreira & Caio Garzeri & Diogo Guillen & Antônio Lima & Victor Monteiro, 2025. "The Not So Quiet Revolution: signal and noise in central bank communication," Working Papers Series 635, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
• Velloso, Helvia & Perrotti, Daniel E. & Sobreira, Rudá, 2025. "Mapping sustainability in Latin America and the Caribbean: sectoral and energy transition insights from sustainable bonds, 2014–2024," Studies and Perspectives – ECLAC Office in Washington 82543, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).