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Air Supremacy Is Not Enough: The Effect of Drone and Air Strikes on Terrorist Attacks in Somalia and Yemen

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Listed:
  • Adelaide Baronchelli
  • Alessandra Foresta
  • Roberto Ricciuti
  • Flavio Santi
  • Tadele Tefera

Abstract

Drones are among the most recent evolutions in warfare, used to respond to or deter insurgent activity and to serve as substitutes for direct troop engagement. We empirically evaluate the effect of drone and air strikes as a deterrent for terrorist attacks, using Somali and Yemeni data from 2016 to 2020. We construct a novel dataset from different sources, such as the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, the Global Terrorist Database, and the New America Foundation. Given the specific features of the data (spatial heterogeneity, interaction between phenomena, and low intensity), we implement a Cox model with different specifications. Results show very limited effects of both drone and air strikes, indicating that air supremacy is not sufficient in fighting against non-state actors.

Suggested Citation

  • Adelaide Baronchelli & Alessandra Foresta & Roberto Ricciuti & Flavio Santi & Tadele Tefera, 2025. "Air Supremacy Is Not Enough: The Effect of Drone and Air Strikes on Terrorist Attacks in Somalia and Yemen," CESifo Working Paper Series 12242, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12242
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

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