United States economic outlook: 2024 year-in-review and first half of 2025

In 2024, the United States economy expanded 2.8%, led by consumer spending. Job creation slowed and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.1% in December. Inflation eased to 2.4% in September but closed the year at 2.9%, with the core consumer price index (CPI) at 3.2%. The Federal Reserve cut rates in September, November and December, lowering the federal funds target range to 4.25%–4.50%, while trade and fiscal deficits widened. In the first half of 2025, GDP growth averaged 1.4%, with a contraction of 0.3% in the first quarter and an uptick of 3.3% in the second. From January to July, the economy added 597,000 jobs —44% fewer than in the same period of 2024— and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Inflation remained above target, with CPI at 2.7% and core CPI at 3.1% in July, while the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged. United States economic and policy developments affected Latin America and the Caribbean in the first half of 2025, as external financing costs remained relatively high amid higher yields and tariff related uncertainty. The United States economic outlook reports follow the main macroeconomic developments of the United States economy and how they may affect financial conditions in Latin America and the Caribbean.