IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/11249.html

Nickel, Steel and Cars : Export Ban and Domestic Value-Added in Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • Kee, Hiau Looi
  • Xie, Enze

Abstract

Nickel is essential for producing iron and steel. Endowed with the world's largest reserve, Indonesia banned nickel exports in 2014 to promote industrialization. This paper studies the impacts of the export ban on downstream steel-using industries. A three-sector model shows that, while the export ban could raise the domestic value-added ratio (DVAR) in exports, the entry of smaller, inefficient firms led to aggregate efficiency losses downstream. Firm-level evidence confirms higher DVAR, smaller firm size, and larger entrant shares in downstream industries post the export ban. A field mission validated these results, while noting the continued heavy reliance on imported steel.

Suggested Citation

  • Kee, Hiau Looi & Xie, Enze, 2025. "Nickel, Steel and Cars : Export Ban and Domestic Value-Added in Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11249, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11249
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099457511102525232/pdf/IDU-dd5457e6-f5fe-419c-b0ef-ae05bd244854.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tristan Reed, 2024. "Export-Led Industrial Policy for Developing Countries: Is There a Way to Pick Winners?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 38(4), pages 3-26, Fall.
    2. Pol Antràs & Davin Chor, 2013. "Organizing the Global Value Chain," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(6), pages 2127-2204, November.
    3. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2007. "Firms in International Trade," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 105-130, Summer.
    4. Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei & Xinding Yu & Kunfu Zhu, 2025. "Accounting for Global Supply Chains: An Integrated Framework That Incorporates Foreign Invested Firms," NBER Working Papers 34073, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Bems, Rudolfs & Kikkawa, Ayumu Ken, 2021. "Measuring trade in value added with firm-level data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    6. Cherkashin, Ivan & Demidova, Svetlana & Kee, Hiau Looi & Krishna, Kala, 2015. "Firm heterogeneity and costly trade: A new estimation strategy and policy experiments," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 18-36.
    7. David Autor & David Dorn & Lawrence F Katz & Christina Patterson & John Van Reenen, 2020. "The Fall of the Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms [“Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor”]," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(2), pages 645-709.
    8. Michael Rubens, 2023. "Market Structure, Oligopsony Power, and Productivity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(9), pages 2382-2410, September.
    9. Mary Hallward-Driemeier & Anna Kochanova & Bob Rijkers, 2021. "Does Democratisation Promote Competition? Evidence from Indonesia [Democracy and firm productivity: evidence from Indonesia’]," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(640), pages 3296-3321.
    10. Hiau Looi Kee & Heiwai Tang, 2016. "Domestic Value Added in Exports: Theory and Firm Evidence from China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(6), pages 1402-1436, June.
    11. Paula Bustos, 2011. "Trade Liberalization, Exports, and Technology Upgrading: Evidence on the Impact of MERCOSUR on Argentinian Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 304-340, February.
    12. David Atkin & Joaquin Blaum & Pablo D. Fajgelbaum & Augusto Ospital, 2024. "Trade Barriers and Market Power: Evidence from Argentina's Discretionary Import Restrictions," NBER Working Papers 32037, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Simon Evenett & Adam Jakubik & Fernando Martín & Michele Ruta, 2024. "The return of industrial policy in data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(7), pages 2762-2788, July.
    14. Jha, Priyaranjan & Rodriguez-Lopez, Antonio, 2021. "Monopsonistic labor markets and international trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    15. Costas Arkolakis & Svetlana Demidova & Peter J. Klenow & Andres Rodriguez-Clare, 2008. "Endogenous Variety and the Gains from Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 444-450, May.
    16. Przemyslaw Kowalski & Clarisse Legendre, 2023. "Raw materials critical for the green transition: Production, international trade and export restrictions," OECD Trade Policy Papers 269, OECD Publishing.
    17. Luca Macedoni, 2022. "Monopsonistic competition, trade, and the profit share," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 124(2), pages 488-515, April.
    18. Robert C. Johnson, 2014. "Five Facts about Value-Added Exports and Implications for Macroeconomics and Trade Research," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 119-142, Spring.
    19. Robert Koopman & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2014. "Tracing Value-Added and Double Counting in Gross Exports," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 459-494, February.
    20. Eric A. Verhoogen, 2008. "Trade, Quality Upgrading, and Wage Inequality in the Mexican Manufacturing Sector," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(2), pages 489-530.
    21. Laura Alfaro & Harald Fadinger & Jan Schymik & Gede Virananda, 2025. "Trade and Industrial Policy in Supply Chains:Directed Technological Change in Rare Earths," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_720, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    22. Diewert, W. E. & Wales, T. J., 1988. "A normalized quadratic semiflexible functional form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 327-342, March.
    23. Mary Amiti & Jozef Konings, 2007. "Trade Liberalization, Intermediate Inputs, and Productivity: Evidence from Indonesia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1611-1638, December.
    24. Tristan Reed, 2024. "Export-Led Industrial Policy for Developing Countries : Is There a Way to Pick Winners?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10902, The World Bank.
    25. James Levinsohn & Amil Petrin, 2003. "Estimating Production Functions Using Inputs to Control for Unobservables," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(2), pages 317-341.
    26. Wang, Zhi & Wei, Shang-Jin & Yu, Xinding & Zhu, Kunfu, 2022. "Global value chains over business cycles," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    27. Hummels, David & Ishii, Jun & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2001. "The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 75-96, June.
    28. Olley, G Steven & Pakes, Ariel, 1996. "The Dynamics of Productivity in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(6), pages 1263-1297, November.
    29. Johnson, Robert C. & Noguera, Guillermo, 2012. "Accounting for intermediates: Production sharing and trade in value added," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 224-236.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Laura Alfaro & Harald Fadinger & Jan S. Schymik & Gede Virananda, 2025. "Trade and Industrial Policy in Supply Chains: Directed Technological Change in Rare Earths," NBER Working Papers 33877, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hiau Looi Kee & Enze Xie & Xu,Mingzhi, 2024. "Firm Linkages and Domestic Value Added in Exports : Moving up the Global Value Chains with High-Speed Railways," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10985, The World Bank.
    2. Pol Antràs & Davin Chor, 2021. "Global Value Chains," NBER Working Papers 28549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Chor, Davin & Manova, Kalina & Yu, Zhihong, 2021. "Growing like China: Firm performance and global production line position," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    4. Dai, Mi & Maitra, Madhura & Yu, Miaojie, 2016. "Unexceptional exporter performance in China? The role of processing trade," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 177-189.
    5. Nenci, Silvia & Fusacchia, Ilaria & Giunta, Anna & Montalbano, Pierluigi & Pietrobelli, Carlo, . "Mapping global value chain participation and positioning in agriculture and food: stylised facts, empirical evidence and critical issues," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 11(2).
    6. Lu, Yue & Shi, Huimin & Luo, Wei & Liu, Bin, 2018. "Productivity, financial constraints, and firms' global value chain participation: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 184-194.
    7. Gunnella, Vanessa & Al-Haschimi, Alexander & Benkovskis, Konstantins & Chiacchio, Francesco & de Soyres, François & Di Lupidio, Benedetta & Fidora, Michael & Franco-Bedoya, Sebastian & Frohm, Erik & G, 2019. "The impact of global value chains on the euro area economy," Occasional Paper Series 221, European Central Bank.
    8. Nicolás de Roux & Luis R. Martínez & Camilo Tovar & Jorge Tovar, 2025. "Trade Collapse and the Performance of Exporting Firms," Documentos CEDE 2025-34, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    9. David Hummels & Jakob R. Munch & Chong Xiang, 2018. "Offshoring and Labor Markets," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 56(3), pages 981-1028, September.
    10. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2012. "The Empirics of Firm Heterogeneity and International Trade," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 283-313, July.
    11. Nicholas Bloom & Kalina Manova & John Van Reenen & Stephen Teng Sun & Zhihong Yu, 2018. "Managing Trade: Evidence from China and the US," NBER Working Papers 24718, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Liang Zhang & Bin Qiu & Xiaocong Xu & Shaoqin Sun, 2021. "Offshoring, Wages, and Skill Premiums: Firm‐level Evidence from China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 29(5), pages 1-27, September.
    13. Sun, Chuanwang & Zhan, Yanhong & Gao, Xiang, 2023. "Does environmental regulation increase domestic value-added in exports? An empirical study of cleaner production standards in China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    14. Antrà s, Pol, 2019. "Conceptual Aspects of Global Value Chains," CEPR Discussion Papers 14191, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Gao, Yuning & Yu, Anqi & Jiang, Jiatong & Pei, Jiansuo, 2024. "Will global value chain participation reduce environmental emissions? Evidence from Chinese firm-level data," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 512-526.
    16. Pritish K. Sahu, 2016. "Malaysia's Domestic Value Added Export: The Role of Governance and Strategic Policy Reforms," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(4), pages 1578-1584.
    17. McManus, T. Clay & Schaur, Georg, 2016. "The effects of import competition on worker health," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 160-172.
    18. Wenxiao Wang & Faqin Lin & Fengning Huan & Yanyun Li, 2024. "Labour market flexibility and domestic value‐added trade: Evidence from the hukou reform in China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(6), pages 2400-2444, June.
    19. Agbekponou, Kossi-Messanh & Cheptea, Angela & Latouche, Karine, 2022. "Quality upgrading and position in global value chains," 2022: Transforming Global Value Chains, December 11-13, Clearwater Beach, FL 339411, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    20. Inaki Arto & Erik Dietzenbacher & Jose Manuel Rueda-Cantuche, 2019. "Measuring bilateral trade in terms of value added," JRC Research Reports JRC116694, Joint Research Centre.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11249. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.