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A Structural Measure of the Shadow Federal Funds Rate

Author

Listed:
  • Callum Jones
  • Mariano Kulish
  • James Morley

Abstract

We propose a shadow policy interest rate based on an estimated structural model that accounts for the zero lower bound. The lower bound constraint, if expected to bind, is contractionary and increases the shadow rate compared to an unconstrained systematic policy response. By contrast, forward guidance and other unconventional policies that extend the expected duration of zero-interest-rate policy are expansionary and decrease the shadow rate. By quantifying these distinct effects, our 'structural' shadow federal funds rate better captures the stance of monetary policy for given economic conditions than a shadow rate based only on the term structure of interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Callum Jones & Mariano Kulish & James Morley, 2022. "A Structural Measure of the Shadow Federal Funds Rate," CAMA Working Papers 2022-61, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2022-61
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    File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/2025-01/61_2022_jones_kulish_morley.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Boehl, Gregor & Lieberknecht, Philipp, 2025. "The hockey stick Phillips curve and the effective lower bound," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    2. Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd E. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mertens, Elmar, 2023. "Shadow-rate VARs," Discussion Papers 14/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Diego Comin & Robert C. Johnson & Callum Jones, 2025. "Supply Chain Constraints and Inflation," IMES Discussion Paper Series 25-E-15, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    4. Fornero, Jorge & Kirchner, Markus & Molina, Carlos, 2024. "Estimating shadow policy rates in a small open economy and the role of foreign factors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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