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How food prices shape inflation expectations and the monetary policy response

Author

Listed:
  • Dario Bonciani

    (Sapienza University of Rome)

  • Riccardo M Masolo

    (Universitá Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano)

  • Silvia Sarpietro

    (University of Bologna)

Abstract

Food price changes have a strong and persistent impact on UK consumers’ inflation expectations. Over 60% of households report that their inflation perceptions are heavily influenced by food prices and display a stronger association between their inflation expectations and perceptions. We complement this finding with a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) analysis, illustrating that food price shocks have a larger and more persistent effect on expectations compared to a ‘representative’ inflation shock. Finally, we augment the canonical New-Keynesian model with behavioural expectations that capture our empirical findings and show that monetary policy should respond more aggressively to food price shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Dario Bonciani & Riccardo M Masolo & Silvia Sarpietro, 2024. "How food prices shape inflation expectations and the monetary policy response," Bank of England working papers 1094, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:1094
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harald Uhlig, 2004. "What moves GNP?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 636, Econometric Society.
    2. Dietrich, Alexander M., 2024. "Consumption categories, household attention, and inflation expectations: Implications for optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Federico Di Pace & Giacomo Mangiante & Riccardo Masolo, 2024. "Monetary policy rules: the market’s view," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def137, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    2. Volker Hahn & Michal Marencak, 2025. "Inflation Perceptions and Monetary Policy," Working and Discussion Papers WP 4/2025, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation expectations; inflation perceptions; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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