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Consumption Response to Credit Expansions: Evidence from Experimental Assignment of 45,307 Credit Lines

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  • Deniz Aydin

Abstract

In a field experiment that constructs a randomized credit limit shock, participants borrow to spend 11 cents on the dollar in the first quarter and 28 cents by the third year. Effects extend to those far from the limit, those who had the new limits as available credit, and those with a liquid asset buffer. In the short-run, flexible and installment contracts are used in tandem, with unconstrained using installments more. Long-run borrowing is predominantly using installments. Near limits, participants borrow when credit expands but save out of constraints when limits are tight. Findings support a buffer-stock interpretation emphasizing precautionary saving.

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  • Deniz Aydin, 2022. "Consumption Response to Credit Expansions: Evidence from Experimental Assignment of 45,307 Credit Lines," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(1), pages 1-40, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:112:y:2022:i:1:p:1-40
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20191178
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    3. Christopher D. Carroll & Edmund Crawley & Jiri Slacalek & Kiichi Tokuoka & Matthew N. White, 2020. "Sticky Expectations and Consumption Dynamics," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 40-76, July.
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    5. Giovanni L. Violante & Greg Kaplan, 2022. "The Marginal Propensity to Consume in Heterogeneous Agent Models," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 747-775, August.
    6. Aydin, Deniz & Kim, Olivia S., 2024. "Precautionary Debt Capacity," EconStor Preprints 281672, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    7. Nathan Blascak & Anna Tranfaglia, 2021. "Decomposing Gender Differences in Bankcard Credit Limits," Working Papers 21-35, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    8. Marco Di Maggio & Emily Williams & Justin Katz, 2022. "Buy Now, Pay Later Credit: User Characteristics and Effects on Spending Patterns," NBER Working Papers 30508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    10. Yijun Li & Cheuk Hang Leung & Xiangqian Sun & Chaoqun Wang & Yiyan Huang & Xing Yan & Qi Wu & Dongdong Wang & Zhixiang Huang, 2023. "The Causal Impact of Credit Lines on Spending Distributions," Papers 2312.10388, arXiv.org.
    11. Lukas, Moritz & Nöth, Markus, 2022. "Voluntary minimum repayments and borrower heterogeneity: Evidence from revolving consumer credit," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    12. Agarwal, Sumit & Presbitero, Andrea & Silva, Andre F. & Wix, Carlo, 2022. "Who Pays For Your Rewards? Redistribution in the Credit Card Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 17733, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Marco Di Maggio & Amir Kermani & Rodney Ramcharan & Vincent Yao & Edison Yu, 2020. "The Pass-Through of Uncertainty Shocks to Households," NBER Working Papers 27646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Filipe Correia & Gustavo S. Cortes & Thiago C. Silva, 2021. "Is Corporate Credit Risk Propagated to Employees?," Working Papers Series 551, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    15. Krivorotov, George, 2023. "Machine learning-based profit modeling for credit card underwriting - implications for credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    16. Martin Hauptfleisch, 2019. "Financial Decision-Making Using Data," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 6-2019, January-A.
    17. Scott L. Fulford & Joanna Stavins, 2024. "Income and the CARD Act’s Ability‐to‐Pay Rule in the US Credit Card Market," Working Papers 24-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    18. Alvaro Mezza & Daniel R. Ringo & Kamila Sommer, 2021. "Student Loans, Access to Credit and Consumer Financial Behavior," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-050, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    20. Scott R. Baker & Brian Baugh & Marco C. Sammon, 2020. "Measuring Customer Churn and Interconnectedness," NBER Working Papers 27707, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Garber, Gabriel & Mian, Atif & Ponticelli, Jacopo & Sufi, Amir, 2024. "Consumption smoothing or consumption binging? The effects of government-led consumer credit expansion in Brazil," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    22. Aydin, Deniz, 2023. "Forbearance vs. Interest Rates: Tests of Liquidity and Strategic Default Triggers in a Randomized Debt Relief Experiment," EconStor Research Reports 268646, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    23. Agarwal, Sumit & Koo, Kang Mo & Qian, Wenlan, 2022. "Consumption response to temporary price shock: Evidence from Singapore's annual sale event," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    24. Baugh, Brian & Correia, Filipe, 2022. "Does paycheck frequency matter? Evidence from micro data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(3), pages 1026-1042.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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