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Habit Formation and Aggregate Consumption Dynamics

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  • Sommer Martin

    () (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

This paper finds that a benchmark model of habit formation in consumer preferences can explain two well-known failures of the permanent income hypothesis: the sensitivity of aggregate consumption to predictable changes in income and to lagged consumer sentiment. One novel feature of the paper's methodology is to allow for measurement errors and other transitory elements (for example, weather-related disturbances) in consumption data. In contrast with traditional wisdom, aggregate consumption growth appears to be highly persistent after controlling for measurement errors and transitory consumption fluctuations: the estimates of persistence in quarterly consumption growth jump up from the commonly assumed 0.3 to about 0.7.

Suggested Citation

  • Sommer Martin, 2007. "Habit Formation and Aggregate Consumption Dynamics," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:7:y:2007:i:1:n:21
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:eecrev:v:95:y:2017:i:c:p:142-167 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. G. Everaert & L. Pozzi & -, 2010. "The Stickiness of Aggregate Consumption Growth in OECD Countries: A Panel Data Analysis," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 10/654, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    3. Christopher D. Carroll & Jiri Slacalek & Martin Sommer, 2011. "International Evidence on Sticky Consumption Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1135-1145, November.
    4. Havranek, Tomas & Rusnak, Marek & Sokolova, Anna, 2017. "Habit formation in consumption: A meta-analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 142-167.
    5. Cardi, Olivier & Müller, Gernot J., 2011. "Habit formation and fiscal transmission in open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 256-267.
    6. Schubert, Stefan F., 2014. "Dynamic Effects Of Oil Price Shocks And Their Impact On The Current Account," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(02), pages 316-337, March.
    7. Tomas Havranek & Anna Sokolova, 2016. "Do Consumers Really Follow a Rule of Thumb? Three Thousand Estimates from 130 Studies Say "Probably Not"," Working Papers 2016/08, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    8. Christopher D. Carroll & Misuzu Otsuka & Jiri Slacalek, 2011. "How Large Are Housing and Financial Wealth Effects? A New Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 55-79, February.
    9. Lorenzo Pozzi, 2011. "The Time-Varying Volatility of Earnings and Aggregate Precautionary Savings," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-144/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    10. Barrell, Ray & Costantini, Mauro & Meco, Iris, 2015. "Housing wealth, financial wealth, and consumption: New evidence for Italy and the UK," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 316-323.
    11. Gerdie Everaert & Lorenzo Pozzi & Ruben Schoonackers, 2016. "On The Stability Of The Excess Sensitivity Of Aggregate Consumption Growth In The Us," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 16/917, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    12. Liping Gao & Hyeongwoo Kim & Yaoqi Zhang, 2013. "Revisiting the Empirical Inconsistency of the Permanent Income Hypothesis: Evidence from Rural China," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2013-05, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    13. Saten Kumar & Barrett Owen, 2013. "Financial Crisis and Sticky Expectations," Working Papers 2013-05, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics.
    14. Johdo, Wataru, 2009. "Habit persistence and stagnation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1110-1114, September.
    15. Barbara Annicchiarico & Claudio Battiati & Claudio Cesaroni & Fabio Di Dio & Francesco Felici, 2017. "IGEM-PA: a Variant of the Italian General Equilibrium Model for Policy Analysis," Working Papers 2, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    16. Gonzalez-Hernandez, Ramon A. & Karayalcin, Cem, 2013. "Habit formation, adjustment costs, and international transmission of fiscal policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 341-359.

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