IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/revlde/1974.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evaluación de escenarios fiscales para Bolivia

Author

Listed:
  • Banegas Rivero, Roger Alejandro

    (Universidad Católica Boliviana “San Pablo”)

  • Vergara González, Reyna

    (Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México)

Abstract

En este documento se evaluaron escenarios de reglas fiscales aplicables para paises en desarrollo que son dependientes de recursos naturales. Se empleo un enfoque de trayectorias, tambien llamado Fan-Chart (grafico de abanicos) para la deuda publica de Bolivia, dependiente del gas natural. La metodologia consistio en un pronostico fuera de muestra (cinco anos) comparado con los niveles observados (2012-2016). Los resultados sugirieron que, sin la presencia de regla fiscal, la deuda publica se aproximo al maximo nivel de endeudamiento del pronostico aleatorio. Con la perspectiva de evidenciar menor nivel de deuda, los ingresos del recurso natural se deben canalizar en determinados niveles hacia el gasto de capital, limitando el gasto corriente y fijando limites en el deficit fiscal. Al introducir una regla fiscal se reduce la volatilidad de la deuda publica en comparacion con un escenario base (sin regla fiscal).

Suggested Citation

  • Banegas Rivero, Roger Alejandro & Vergara González, Reyna, 2019. "Evaluación de escenarios fiscales para Bolivia," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Carrera de Economía de la Universidad Católica Boliviana (UCB) "San Pablo", issue 32, pages 132-168, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:revlde:1974
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.iisec.ucb.edu.bo/assets_iisec/publicacion/Desarrollo_Economico_N_32_WEB-132-168.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frederick van der Ploeg & Anthony J. Venables, 2011. "Harnessing Windfall Revenues: Optimal Policies for Resource‐Rich Developing Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(551), pages 1-30, March.
    2. Eduardo Borensztein & Eduardo Cavallo & Patricio Valenzuela, 2009. "Debt Sustainability Under Catastrophic Risk: The Case for Government Budget Insurance," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 12(2), pages 273-294, September.
    3. Mrs. Nina Budina & Ms. Andrea Schaechter & Miss Anke Weber & Mr. Tidiane Kinda, 2012. "Fiscal Rules in Response to the Crisis: Toward the "Next-Generation" Rules: A New Dataset," IMF Working Papers 2012/187, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Paul Collier & Anthony Venables & Rick Van der Ploeg & Michael Spence, 2009. "Managing Resource Revenues in Developing," OxCarre Working Papers 015, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    5. Pierre‐Richard Agénor & S. Devrim Yilmaz, 2011. "The tyranny of rules: fiscal discipline, productive spending, and growth in a perfect foresight model," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 69-99.
    6. Adrian Penalver & Gregory Thwaites, 2006. "Fiscal rules for debt sustainability in emerging markets: the impact of volatility and default risk," Bank of England working papers 307, Bank of England.
    7. Eduardo Borensztein & Eduardo Cavallo & Patricio Valenzuela, 2009. "Debt Sustainability Under Catastrophic Risk: The Case for Government Budget Insurance," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 12(2), pages 273-294, 09.
    8. Sweder van Wijnbergen & Nina Budina, 2011. "Fiscal sustainability, volatility and oil wealth," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 19(4), pages 639-666, October.
    9. Philippe Michel & Leopold Von Thadden & Jean‐Pierre Vidal, 2010. "Debt Stabilizing Fiscal Rules," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 12(5), pages 923-941, October.
    10. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, April.
    11. Falilou Fall & Jean-Marc Fournier, 2015. "Macroeconomic uncertainties, prudent debt targets and fiscal rules," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1230, OECD Publishing.
    12. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    13. Philippe Burger & Marina Marinkov, 2012. "Fiscal rules and regime-dependent fiscal reaction functions: The South African case," OECD Journal on Budgeting, OECD Publishing, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29.
    14. Rahul Dhumale, 2000. "Public Investment in the Middle East and North Africa: Towards Fiscal Efficiency," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 18(3), pages 307-324, September.
    15. Alfonso Mendoza Velázquez & Peter N. Smith, 2013. "Equity Returns and the Business Cycle: the Role of Supply and Demand Shocks," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 100-124, September.
    16. Anthony Venables, 2010. "Resource rents; when to spend and how to save," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 17(4), pages 340-356, August.
    17. Charles Wyplosz, 2011. "Debt Sustainability Assessment: Mission Impossible," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 2(3).
    18. Mr. Philippe D Karam & Mr. Douglas Hostland, 2005. "Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods," IMF Working Papers 2005/226, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Mr. Philippe D Karam & Mr. Douglas Hostland, 2006. "Specification of a Stochastic Simulation Model for Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 2006/268, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Falilou Fall & Debra Bloch & Jean-Marc Fournier & Peter Hoeller, 2015. "Prudent debt targets and fiscal frameworks," OECD Economic Policy Papers 15, OECD Publishing.
    21. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "How Can Commodity Exporters Make Fiscal and Monetary Policy Less Procyclical?," Scholarly Articles 4735392, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    23. Pierre-Richard Agenor & S. Devrim Yilmaz, 2011. "The tyranny of rules: fiscal discipline, productive spending, and growth in a perfect foresight model," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 69-99.
    24. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
    25. Todd Moss, 2011. "Oil to Cash: Fighting the Resource Curse through Cash Transfers," Working Papers id:3489, eSocialSciences.
    26. Baum, Anja & Eyraud, Luc & Hodge, Andrew & Jarmuzek, Mariusz & Kim, Young & Mbaye, Samba & Ture, Elif, 2018. "How to calibrate fiscal rules : a primer," MPRA Paper 86423, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1990. "Business cycles: real facts and a monetary myth," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 14(Spr), pages 3-18.
    28. Mr. Mauricio Villafuerte & Mr. Rolando Ossowski & Mr. Theo Thomas & Mr. Paulo A Medas, 2008. "Managing the Oil Revenue Boom: The Role of Fiscal Institutions," IMF Occasional Papers 2008/003, International Monetary Fund.
    29. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro & Mauricio Villafuerte & Thomas Baunsgaard & Christine J. Richmond, 2012. "Fiscal Frameworks for Resource Rich Developing Countries," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 12/04, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Mr. Paulo A Medas & Ms. Daria V Zakharova, 2009. "A Primeron Fiscal Analysis in Oil-Producing Countries," IMF Working Papers 2009/056, International Monetary Fund.
    31. Sweder van Wijnbergen & Nina Budina, 2011. "Fiscal Sustainability, Volatility and Oil Wealth: A Stochastic Analysis of Fiscal Spending Rules," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-068/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 16 May 2011.
    32. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1.
    33. Mr. Luc Eyraud & Ms. Anja Baum & Andrew Hodge & Mariusz Jarmuzek & H. Elif Ture & Samba Mbaye & Young-Bae Kim, 2018. "How to Calibrate Fiscal Rules: A Primer," IMF Fiscal Affairs Department 2018/002, International Monetary Fund.
    34. Banegas Rivero, Roger Alejandro & González Vergara, Reyna, 2015. "Cambios institucionales y transición cíclica en la posición fiscal para Bolivia (2003-2011)," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Carrera de Economía de la Universidad Católica Boliviana (UCB) "San Pablo", issue 23, pages 67-96, Mayo.
    35. Mauricio Villafuerte & Pablo López-Murphy & Rolando Ossowski, 2011. "Riding the Roller Coaster: Fiscal Policies of Nonrenewable Resources Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean ," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 609, Central Bank of Chile.
    36. Banegas Rivero, Roger Alejandro & Vergara González, Reyna, 2016. "Choques de Precios de Recursos Naturales, Asignaciones al Gasto Público y Posición Fiscal: una Ilustración con Bolivia," Revista Nicolaita de Estudios Económicos, Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo, Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Empresariales, vol. 0(2), pages 7-38.
    37. Fernando Navajas & Daniel Artana & Marcelo Catena & Juan Luis Bour, 2008. "Tópicos macrofiscales y perspectivas de sostenibilidad fiscal en Bolivia," Research Department Publications 2010, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    38. Mr. Tobias N. Rasmussen, 2004. "Macroeconomic Implications of Natural Disasters in the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 2004/224, International Monetary Fund.
    39. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Fiscal Policy in Oil Producing Countries During the Recent Oil Price Cycle," IMF Working Papers 2010/028, International Monetary Fund.
    40. Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro & Mr. Mauricio Villafuerte & Mr. Thomas Baunsgaard & Christine J. Richmond, 2012. "Fiscal Frameworks for Resource Rich Developing Countries," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2012/004, International Monetary Fund.
    41. Allen Schick, 2010. "Post-Crisis Fiscal Rules: Stabilising Public Finance while Responding to Economic Aftershocks," OECD Journal on Budgeting, OECD Publishing, vol. 10(2), pages 1-18.
    42. Kamilya Tazhibayeva & Mr. Aasim M. Husain & Anna Ter-Martirosyan, 2008. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Cycles in Oil-Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 2008/253, International Monetary Fund.
    43. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Araujo, Juliana D. & Li, Bin Grace & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2016. "Current account norms in natural resource rich and capital scarce economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 144-156.
    2. Stuart Landon & Constance Smith, 2015. "Rule-Based Resource Revenue Stabilization Funds: A Welfare Comparison," The Energy Journal, , vol. 36(2), pages 117-144, April.
    3. El Anshasy, Amany A. & Bradley, Michael D., 2012. "Oil prices and the fiscal policy response in oil-exporting countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 605-620.
    4. Elva Bova & Paulo Medas & Tigran Poghosyan, 2018. "Macroeconomic Stability in Resource-rich Countries: The Role of Fiscal Policy," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 1(9), pages 103-122, May.
    5. Aleksandar Zdravkovic & Aleksandra Bradic-Martinovic, 2012. "Public Debt Sustainability in Western Balkan Countries," Book Chapters, in: Paulino Teixeira & António Portugal Duarte & Srdjan Redzepagic & Dejan Eric (ed.), European Integration Process in Western Balkan Countries, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 472-492, Institute of Economic Sciences.
    6. Issouf Samaké & Ms. Priscilla S Muthoora & Mr. Bruno Versailles, 2013. "Fiscal Sustainability, Public Investment, and Growth in Natural Resource-Rich, Low-Income Countries: The Case of Cameroon," IMF Working Papers 2013/144, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Amer TABAKOVIĆ, 2019. "Public Spending in an OLG Economy with Endogenous Technological Change - Financing Matters -," Departmental Working Papers 2019-08, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    8. Brigitte Granville & Sana Hussain, 2017. "Eurozone cycles: An analysis of phase synchronization," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 83-114, April.
    9. Landon, Stuart & Smith, Constance, 2017. "Does the design of a fiscal rule matter for welfare?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 226-237.
    10. Quintero Otero, Jorge David & Padilla Sierra, Alcides de Jesús, 2024. "Impacto de la sincronización sub-nacional sobre el comportamiento de los ciclos nacionales en economías emergentes con inflación objetivo," Documentos Departamento de Economía 54, Universidad del Norte.
    11. repec:ilo:ilowps:488131 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:grm:wpaper:201609 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Jorge Mario Uribe & Inés María Ulloa & Johanna Perea, 2015. "Reference financial cycle in Colombia," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 83, pages 33-62, Julio - D.
    14. Celsa Machado, 2001. "Measuring Business Cycles: The Real Business Cycle Approach and Related Controversies," FEP Working Papers 107, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    15. Mr. Paul Cashin, 2004. "Caribbean Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 2004/136, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Ľubica Štiblárová, 2020. "Traditional and Alternative Business Cycle Dating Procedures: Evidence for the Euro Area and the Czech Economy," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 68(1), pages 263-274.
    17. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Devrim Yilmaz, 2012. "Simple Dynamics of Public Debt with Productive Public Goods," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 165, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    18. Kyriakos Chousakos & Gary Gorton & Guillermo Ordonez, 2018. "Aggregate Information Dynamics," 2018 Meeting Papers 167, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Ray, Nikhil. & Velasquez, Agustin. & Islam, Iyanatul,, 2015. "Fiscal rules, growth and employment : a developing country perspective," ILO Working Papers 994881313402676, International Labour Organization.
    20. Hodula, Martin & Pfeifer, Lukáš & Janků, Jan, 2022. "The effect of structural risks on financial downturns," ESRB Working Paper Series 138, European Systemic Risk Board.
    21. Llobet-Dalmases, Joan & Plana-Erta, Dolors & Uribe, Jorge M., 2023. "Cyclical capital structure decisions," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    22. Bjarni G. Einarsson & Gudjón Emilsson & Svava J. Haraldsdóttir & Thórarinn G. Pétursson & Rósa B. Sveinsdóttir, 2013. "On our own? The Icelandic business cycle in an international context," Economics wp63, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Escenarios de reglas fiscales; asignación de ingresos al gasto público; deuda pública; países en desarrollo; recursos naturales;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:revlde:1974. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Carlos Gustavo Machicado (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iisecbo.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.