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How Can Commodity Exporters Make Fiscal and Monetary Policy Less Procyclical?

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  • Frankel, Jeffrey A.

    (Harvard University)

Abstract

Fiscal and monetary policy each has a role to play in mitigating the volatility that stems from the large trade shocks hitting commodity-exporting countries. All too often macroeconomic policy is procyclical, that is, destabilizing, rather than countercyclical. This paper suggests two institutional innovations designed to achieve greater countercyclicality, one for fiscal policy and one for monetary policy. The proposal for fiscal policy is to emulate Chile's structural budget rule, and particularly its avoidance of over-optimism in forecasting. The proposal for monetary policy is called Product Price Targeting (PPT), an alternative to CPI-targeting that is designed to be more robust with respect to terms of trade shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "How Can Commodity Exporters Make Fiscal and Monetary Policy Less Procyclical?," Working Paper Series rwp11-015, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp11-015
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    8. Chuku Chuku & Paul Middleditch, 2020. "Characterizing Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules and Interactions when Commodity Prices Matter," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(3), pages 373-404, June.
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    10. Monoj Kumar Majumder & Mala Raghavan & Joaquin Vespignani, 2020. "Commodity price volatility, fiscal balance and real interest rate," CAMA Working Papers 2020-79, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    11. Luis N. Lanteri, 2016. "La política fiscal en economías exportadoras de materias primas. Evidencia para Argentina," Economic Analysis Working Papers (2002-2010). Atlantic Review of Economics (2011-2016), Colexio de Economistas de A Coruña, Spain and Fundación Una Galicia Moderna, vol. 1, pages 1-1, June.
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