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Optimal economic policy and oil prices shocks in Russia

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  • Semko Roman

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Abstract

The goal of the paper is to explain and analyze whether Central Bank of Russia should include commodity prices into the lists of variables they try to respond. We augmented New Keynesian DSGE small open economy model of Dib (2008) with the oil stabilization fund and new Taylortype monetary policy rule and estimated the model using Bayesian econometrics. The results show that Central Bank’s mild response to the oil price changes may be desired in terms of minimizing fluctuations of inflation and output only in the case when stabilization fund would be absent, while this response is redundant when “excess” oil revenues can be saved in the fund.

Suggested Citation

  • Semko Roman, 2013. "Optimal economic policy and oil prices shocks in Russia," EERC Working Paper Series 13/03e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
  • Handle: RePEc:eer:wpalle:13/03e
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anna Kormilitsina, 2011. "Oil Price Shocks and the Optimality of Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 199-223, January.
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    3. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
    4. Paul Collier & Rick Van Der Ploeg & Michael Spence & Anthony J Venables, 2010. "Managing Resource Revenues in Developing Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(1), pages 84-118, April.
    5. David A. Bessler, 1984. "Relative Prices and Money: A Vector Autoregression on Brazilian Data," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 66(1), pages 25-30.
    6. Kirill Sosunov & Oleg Zamulin, 2007. "Monetary Policy in an Economy Sick with Dutch Disease," Working Papers w0101, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    7. Hafedh Bouakez & Nooman Rebei & Désiré Vencatachellum, 2008. "Optimal Pass-Through of Oil Prices in an Economy with Nominal Rigidities," Cahiers de recherche 0831, CIRPEE.
    8. Bernanke, Ben S & Gertler, Mark & Watson, Mark W, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Reply," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 287-291, April.
    9. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    10. Awokuse, Titus O. & Yang, Jian, 2003. "The informational role of commodity prices in formulating monetary policy: a reexamination," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 219-224, May.
    11. Horvath, Michael, 2000. "Sectoral shocks and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 69-106, February.
    12. Garner, C Alan, 1989. "Commodity Prices: Policy Target or Information Variable? A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(4), pages 508-514, November.
    13. Robert Pavasuthipaisit, 2010. "The Role of Asset Prices in Best-Practice Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(2), pages 81-115, June.
    14. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    15. Jihad Dagher & Jan Gottschalk & Rafael A Portillo, 2010. "Oil Windfalls in Ghana; A DSGE Approach," IMF Working Papers 10/116, International Monetary Fund.
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    18. Jouko Rautava, 2002. "The role of oil prices and the real exchange rate in Russia‘s economy," Macroeconomics 0209004, EconWPA.
    19. Bruno Merlevede & Koen Schoors & Bas Van Aarle, 2009. "Russia from Bust to Boom and Back: Oil Price, Dutch Disease and Stabilisation Fund," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 51(2), pages 213-241, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Shulgin, Andrei, 2014. "How much monetary policy rules do we need to estimate DSGE model for Russia?," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 36(4), pages 3-31.
    2. Shulgin, A., 2015. "Optimization of Simple Monetary Policy Rules on the Base of Estimated DSGE-model," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 64-98.
    3. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jancokova, Martina, 2017. "Financial Globalisation, Monetary Policy Spillovers and Macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 Shocks," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 314, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    4. Drygalla, Andrej, 2017. "Monetary policy in an oil-dependent economy in the presence of multiple shocks," IWH Discussion Papers 14/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    5. Irina Khvostova & Alexander Larin & Anna Novak, 2014. "Euler equation with habits and measurement errors: estimates on Russian micro data," HSE Working papers WP BRP 52/EC/2014, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    6. Oxana Malakhovskaya & Alexey Minabutdinov, 2014. "Are commodity price shocks important? A Bayesian estimation of a DSGE model for Russia," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(1/2), pages 148-180.
    7. repec:nea:journl:y:2017:i:33:p:75-115 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Marinko Škare & Saša Stjepanovic, 2014. "Income Distribution Determinants and Inequality – International Comparison," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 16(37), pages 980-980, August.
    9. Рубинштейн Александр Яковлевич, "undated". "Рациональность & Иррациональность: Эволюция Смыслов
      [Rationality & Irrationality: Evolution of the Senses]
      ," Working papers a:pru175:ye:2017:1, Institute of Economics.
    10. repec:voj:journl:v:63:y:2016:i:4:p:395-409 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Andrey G. Shulgin, 2015. "Monetary Regime Choice and Optimal Credit Rationing at the Official Rate: The Case of Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 103/EC/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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