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Optimal economic policy and oil prices shocks in Russia

The goal of the paper is to explain and analyze whether Central Bank of Russia should include commodity prices into the lists of variables they try to respond. We augmented New Keynesian DSGE small open economy model of Dib (2008) with the oil stabilization fund and new Taylortype monetary policy rule and estimated the model using Bayesian econometrics. The results show that Central Bank’s mild response to the oil price changes may be desired in terms of minimizing fluctuations of inflation and output only in the case when stabilization fund would be absent, while this response is redundant when “excess” oil revenues can be saved in the fund.

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Paper provided by EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS in its series EERC Working Paper Series with number 13/03e.

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Date of creation: 03 2013
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Handle: RePEc:eer:wpalle:13/03e
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  1. Jihad Dagher & Jan Gottschalk & Rafael Portillo, 2010. "Oil Windfalls in Ghana; A DSGE Approach," IMF Working Papers 10/116, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research 35, National Bank of Belgium.
  3. Rautava, Jouko, 2002. "The role of oil prices and the real exchange rate in Russia's economy," BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  4. Awokuse, Titus O. & Yang, Jian, 2003. "The informational role of commodity prices in formulating monetary policy: a reexamination," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 219-224, May.
  5. David A. Bessler, 1984. "Relative Prices and Money: A Vector Autoregression on Brazilian Data," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 66(1), pages 25-30.
  6. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
  7. Paul Collier & Frederick van der Ploeg & Michael Spence & Anthony J Venables, 2009. "Managing Resource Revenues in Developing Economies," OxCarre Working Papers 015, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
  8. Garner, C Alan, 1989. "Commodity Prices: Policy Target or Information Variable? A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(4), pages 508-14, November.
  9. Bernanke, Ben S & Gertler, Mark & Watson, Mark W, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Reply," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 287-91, April.
  10. Robert Pavasuthipaisit, 2010. "The Role of Asset Prices in Best-Practice Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(2), pages 81-115, June.
  11. Mohamed Tahar Benkhodja, 2011. "Monetary Policy and the Dutch Disease in a Small Open Oil Exporting Economy," Working Papers halshs-00654511, HAL.
  12. Horvath, Michael, 2000. "Sectoral shocks and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 69-106, February.
  13. Anna Kormilitsina, 2011. "Oil Price Shocks and the Optimality of Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 199-223, January.
  14. Hafedh Bouakez & Nooman Rebei & Désiré Vencatachellum, 2008. "Optimal Pass-Through of Oil Prices in an Economy with Nominal Rigidities," Cahiers de recherche 0831, CIRPEE.
  15. Kirill Sosunov & Oleg Zamulin, 2007. "Monetary Policy in an Economy Sick with Dutch Disease," Working Papers w0101, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
  16. Jouko Rautava, 2002. "The role of oil prices and the real exchange rate in Russia‘s economy," Macroeconomics 0209004, EconWPA.
  17. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
  18. Cody, Brian J & Mills, Leonard O, 1991. "The Role of Commodity Prices in Formulating Monetary Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(2), pages 358-65, May.
  19. Sephton, Peter S, 1991. "Commodity Prices: Policy Target or Information Variable: A Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 260-66, May.
  20. Bruno Merlevede & Koen Schoors & Bas Van Aarle, 2009. "Russia from Bust to Boom and Back: Oil Price, Dutch Disease and Stabilisation Fund," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 51(2), pages 213-241, June.
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