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Monetary Policy and the Dutch Disease in a Small Open Oil Exporting Economy

Author

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  • Mohamed Tahar Benkhodja

    (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

In this paper, we compare, first, the impact of a windfall and a boom sectors on the economy of an oil exporting country and their welfare implications ; in a second step, we analyze how monetary policy should be conducted to insulate the economy from the main impact of these shocks, namely the Dutch Disease. To do so, we built a Multisector DSGE model with nominal and real rigidities. The main finding is that Dutch disease effect arise after spending and resource movement effects in the following cases : i) flexible prices and wages both in the case of a windfall and in the case of a boom ; ii) flexible wage and sticky price only in the case of a …fixed exchange rate. In other cases, Dutch disease effect can be avoided if : prices are sticky and wages are flexible when the exchange rate is flexible ; iii) prices and wages are sticky whatever the objective of the central bank is in both cases : windfall and boom. We also compare the source of fluctuation that leads to Dutch disease effect and we conclude that the windfall leads to a strong e¤ect in terms of de-industrialization compared to a boom. The choice of flexible exchange rate regime also helps to improve welfare.
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  • Mohamed Tahar Benkhodja, 2011. "Monetary Policy and the Dutch Disease in a Small Open Oil Exporting Economy," Post-Print halshs-00658282, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00658282
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rodríguez González, Guillermo, 2012. "Una revisión de la enfermedad holandesa a la luz de la teoría austriaca del ciclo económico [A review of the Dutch disease in the light of the Austrian theory of business cycle]," MPRA Paper 39986, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Mohamed Tahar Benkhodja, 2015. "External Shocks and Monetary Policy in an Oil Exporting Economy," Post-Print hal-01385986, HAL.
    3. Semko Roman, 2013. "Optimal economic policy and oil prices shocks in Russia," EERC Working Paper Series 13/03e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    4. Somayeh Mardaneh, 2015. "Inflation Dynamics in a Dutch Disease Economy," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 19(3), pages 295-324, Autumn.
    5. Suliman Zakaria S. Abdalla, 2014. "The Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on the Sudanese Stock Market Performance," Working Papers 887, Economic Research Forum, revised Dec 2014.
    6. Allegret, Jean Pierre & Benkhodja, Mohamed Tahar, 2015. "External shocks and monetary policy in an oil exporting economy (Algeria)," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 652-667.
    7. Drago Bergholt, 2014. "Monetary Policy in Oil Exporting Economies," Working Papers No 5/2014, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    8. Jair N. OJeda & Julián A. Parra Polanía & Carmiña O. Vargas, 2014. "Natural-Resource Booms, Fiscal Rules and Welfare in a Small Open Economy," Borradores de Economia 807, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    9. Mustapha, Ishaq Muhammad & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "Dutch disease or Nigerian disease: a prima facie? New evidence from ARDL bound test analysis," MPRA Paper 69767, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Andreyev, M. & Polbin, A., 2019. "Studying the financial accelerator effect in a two-sector DSGE model for an exportoriented economy," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 44(4), pages 12-49.
    11. Chuku Chuku, 2016. "Evaluating monetary policy options for managing resource revenue shocks when fiscal policy is laissez-faire: Application to Nigeria," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2016-45, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. Jean Pierre Allegret & Mohamed Tahar Benkhodja, 2011. "External Shocks and Monetary Policy in a Small Open Oil Exporting Economy," EconomiX Working Papers 2011-39, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    13. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Mohamed Tahar Benkhodja & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2018. "Monetary Policy, Oil Stabilization Fund and the Dutch Disease," Working Papers hal-01796312, HAL.
    14. Ruslan Aliyev, 2012. "Monetary Policy in Resource-Rich Developing Economies," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp466, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    15. Chuku Chuku & Jacob Oduor & Anthony Simpasa & Peter Mwanakatwe, 2019. "Working Paper 318 - A DGE Model for Growth and Development Planning: Malawi," Working Paper Series 2444, African Development Bank.
    16. Hossein Tavakolian & Hamed Ghiaie, 2019. "Optimal Inflation Targeting in a Dual-Exchange Rate Oil Economy," THEMA Working Papers 2019-09, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    17. Somayeh Mardaneh, 2012. "Inflation Dynamics in a Dutch Disease Economy," Discussion Papers in Economics 12/25, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    18. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Mohamed Tahar Benkhodja, 2014. "The Dutch disease effect in a high versus low oil dependent countries," Post-Print hal-01385965, HAL.
    19. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Mohamed Tahar Benkhodja, 2011. "External Shocks and Monetary Policy in a Small Open Oil Exporting Economy," Working Papers hal-04140941, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; Dutch Disease; Oil Prices; Small Open Economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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