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Russia from Bust to Boom and Back: Oil Price, Dutch Disease and Stabilisation Fund

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  • Bruno Merlevede

    ([1] HUBrussel, Brussels, Belgium[2] CERISE, Ghent University, Tweekerkenstraat 2, Gent 9000, Belgium.)

  • Koen Schoors

    ([1] CERISE, Ghent University, Tweekerkenstraat 2, Gent 9000, Belgium.)

  • Bas Van Aarle

    (Department of Law, Governance and Economics, European Business School, Söhnleinstrasse 8a, 65201 Wiesbaden, Germany)

Abstract

This paper develops and estimates a small macroeconomic model of the Russian economy. The model is tailored to analyse the impact of the oil price, the exchange rate, private sector confidence and fiscal policy on economic performance. Simulations suggest that the Russian economy is vulnerable to downward oil price shocks. We substantiate two mechanisms that mitigate the economic effects of oil price shocks, namely the stabilisation brought by the Oil Stabilisation Fund and the Dutch disease effect. The fiscal policies of the Putin administration temper economic fluctuations caused by oil price shocks. Comparative Economic Studies (2009) 51, 213–241. doi:10.1057/ces.2009.2

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno Merlevede & Koen Schoors & Bas Van Aarle, 2009. "Russia from Bust to Boom and Back: Oil Price, Dutch Disease and Stabilisation Fund," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 51(2), pages 213-241, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:compes:v:51:y:2009:i:2:p:213-241
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    Cited by:

    1. Gyeyir, Denis Mwinkpeng, 2019. "The Ghana Stabilisation Fund: Relevance and Impact so far," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    2. Taguchi, Hiroyuki & Ganbayar, Javkhlan, 2022. "An econometric study on the classification and effectiveness of natural resource funds," MPRA Paper 114392, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Mironov, Valeriy V. & Petronevich, Anna V., 2015. "Discovering the signs of Dutch disease in Russia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 97-112.
    4. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2015. "The nexus between oil price and Russia's real exchange rate: Better paths via unconditional vs conditional analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 54-66.
    5. Smeets, Niels, 2017. "Similar goals, divergent motives. The enabling and constraining factors of Russia's capacity-based renewable energy support scheme," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 138-149.
    6. Suparna Chakraborty & Keisuke Otsu, 2012. "Deconstructing Growth - A Business Cycle Accounting Approach with application to BRICs," Studies in Economics 1212, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    7. Skrypnik, Dmitriy, 2016. "A Macroeconomic Model of the Russian Economy," MPRA Paper 93506, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Fatih Kaplan & Ayşe E. Ünal, 2020. "Industrial Production Index - Crude Oil Price Nexus: Russia, Kazakhstan And Azerbaijan," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 65(227), pages 119-142, October –.
    9. Hiroyuki Taguchi & Javkhlan Ganbayar, 2022. "Natural Resource Funds: Their Objectives and Effectiveness," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-20, September.
    10. Benedictow, Andreas & Fjærtoft, Daniel & Løfsnæs, Ole, 2013. "Oil dependency of the Russian economy: An econometric analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 400-428.
    11. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2015. "The nexus between oil price and Russia's real exchange rate: Better paths via unconditional vs conditional analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 54-66.
    12. Semko Roman, 2013. "Optimal economic policy and oil prices shocks in Russia," EERC Working Paper Series 13/03e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    13. Naotaka Sugawara, 2014. "From Volatility to Stability in Expenditure: Stabilization Funds in Resource-Rich Countries," IMF Working Papers 2014/043, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Ewa Dabrowska & Joachim Zweynert, 2014. "Economic Ideas and Institutional Change: The Case of the Russian Stabilisation Fund," Working Papers 339, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).
    15. Simola, Heli, 2019. "Effects of external shocks on Russian economy," BOFIT Policy Briefs 4/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    16. Скрыпник Д.В., 2016. "Макроэкономическая Модель Российской Экономики," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 52(3), pages 92-113, июль.

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