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Russia from Bust to Boom and Back: Oil Price, Dutch Disease and Stabilisation Fund

  • Bruno Merlevede


    ([1] HUBrussel, Brussels, Belgium[2] CERISE, Ghent University, Tweekerkenstraat 2, Gent 9000, Belgium.)

  • Koen Schoors


    ([1] CERISE, Ghent University, Tweekerkenstraat 2, Gent 9000, Belgium.)

  • Bas Van Aarle

    (Department of Law, Governance and Economics, European Business School, S�hnleinstrasse 8a, 65201 Wiesbaden, Germany)

This paper develops and estimates a small macroeconomic model of the Russian economy. The model is tailored to analyse the impact of the oil price, the exchange rate, private sector confidence and fiscal policy on economic performance. Simulations suggest that the Russian economy is vulnerable to downward oil price shocks. We substantiate two mechanisms that mitigate the economic effects of oil price shocks, namely the stabilisation brought by the Oil Stabilisation Fund and the Dutch disease effect. The fiscal policies of the Putin administration temper economic fluctuations caused by oil price shocks. Comparative Economic Studies (2009) 51, 213–241. doi:10.1057/ces.2009.2

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Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal Comparative Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 51 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 213-241

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Handle: RePEc:pal:compes:v:51:y:2009:i:2:p:213-241
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