IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/lde/journl/y2018i88p51-76.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

External cycles and commodities in Latin America and the Caribbean: a cointegration analysis with breaks

Author

Listed:
  • Fernando Delbianco

    (Universidad Nacional del Sur)

  • Andrés Fioriti

    (Universidad Nacional del Sur)

Abstract

In this paper, we seek to characterize the relationship between the cyclical behavior of foreign accounts and commodity price indexes for Latin America and the Caribbean. Using several tests of stationarity that allow for the presence of breaks, we conclude that commodity prices are cointegrated with the current accounts in Latin American countries, suggesting that developmentalism plans did not obtain the desired productive diversification and that the region still relies heavily on commodities to determine its foreign position. Another important result supports the findings of Delbianco and Fioriti (2014, 2015) that the region had suffered two sudden stops in the last 60 years, both driven by shifts in commodity prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando Delbianco & Andrés Fioriti, 2018. "External cycles and commodities in Latin America and the Caribbean: a cointegration analysis with breaks," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 88, pages 51-76, Enero - J.
    • Handle: RePEc:lde:journl:y:2018:i:88:p:51-76
    DOI: 10.17533/udea.le.n88a02
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://aprendeenlinea.udea.edu.co/revistas/index.php/lecturasdeeconomia/article/view/330630/20786942
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.17533/udea.le.n88a02?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2004. "Which Lag Length Selection Criteria Should We Employ?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(33), pages 1-9.
    2. Bordo, Michael David, 1980. "The Effects of Monetary Change on Relative Commodity Prices and the Role of Long-Term Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(6), pages 1088-1109, December.
    3. Akpan, Uduak & Isihak, Salisu & Asongu, Simplice, 2014. "Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Fast-Growing Economies: A Study of BRICS and MINT," MPRA Paper 56810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    5. Verheyen, Florian, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Commodity Prices and Infl ation – Empirical Evidence from the US," Ruhr Economic Papers 216, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    6. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
    7. Garner, C Alan, 1989. "Commodity Prices: Policy Target or Information Variable? A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(4), pages 508-514, November.
    8. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-320, July.
    9. J. Cunado & L. A. Gil-Alana & F. PErez de Gracia, 2003. "Empirical evidence on real convergence in some OECD countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 173-176.
    10. Kim, Dukpa & Perron, Pierre, 2009. "Unit root tests allowing for a break in the trend function at an unknown time under both the null and alternative hypotheses," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(1), pages 1-13, January.
    11. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2014. "Commodity price uncertainty and manufactured exports in Morocco and Tunisia: Some insights from a novel GARCH model," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(1), pages 220-233.
    12. Yanfeng Wei, 2013. "Commodity prices, manufactured goods prices and inflation: evidence from Japan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 986-992.
    13. Herrera, Ana María & Pesavento, Elena, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks, Systematic Monetary Policy, And The “Great Moderation”," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 107-137, February.
    14. Cody, Brian J & Mills, Leonard O, 1991. "The Role of Commodity Prices in Formulating Monetary Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(2), pages 358-365, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Martín Leandro Dutto Giolongo & Emiliano A. Carlevaro & Juan Jullier & Marcos Narváez, 2020. "Board-related corporate governance practices and performance of Argentine banks," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4340, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    2. Vincenzo Candila & Salvatore Farace, 2018. "On the Volatility Spillover between Agricultural Commodities and Latin American Stock Markets," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-16, October.
    3. Fernando Delbianco & Andrés Fioriti & Germán González, 2020. "Exploring the geographical bias of manufactured exports in MERCOSUR," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4339, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    2. Alexeev, Vitali & Maynard, Alex, 2012. "Localized level crossing random walk test robust to the presence of structural breaks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3322-3344.
    3. Verheyen, Florian, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Commodity Prices and Infl ation – Empirical Evidence from the US," Ruhr Economic Papers 216, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    4. Yiannis Karavias & Elias Tzavalis, 2014. "Testing for unit roots in panels with structural changes, spatial and temporal dependence when the time dimension is finite," Discussion Papers 14/03, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    5. Shane Brittle, 2010. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 43(3), pages 254-269, September.
    6. Florian Verheyen, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Commodity Prices and Infl ation – Empirical Evidence from the US," Ruhr Economic Papers 0216, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    7. repec:zbw:rwirep:0216 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Chan, Felix & Pauwels, Laurent, 2011. "Model specification in panel data unit root tests with an unknown break," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(7), pages 1299-1309.
    9. Mariam Camarero & Juan Sapena & Cecilio Tamarit, 2020. "Modelling Time-Varying Parameters in Panel Data State-Space Frameworks: An Application to the Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 56(1), pages 87-114, June.
    10. Vicente Esteve & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & María A. Prats, 2013. "The present value model of US stock prices revisited: long-run evidence with structural breaks, 1871-2010," Working Papers 04/13, Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social.
    11. Kurmaş Akdoğan, 2017. "Unemployment hysteresis and structural change in Europe," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1415-1440, December.
    12. Garg, Bhavesh & Prabheesh, K.P., 2021. "Testing the intertemporal sustainability of current account in the presence of endogenous structural breaks: Evidence from the top deficit countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 365-379.
    13. Josep Carrion-i-Silvestre & Vicente German-Soto, 2010. "Stochastic convergence in the industrial sector of the Mexican states," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 45(3), pages 547-570, December.
    14. Zied Ftiti & Aviral Tiwari & Ibrahim Fatnassi, 2014. "Oil price and macroeconomy in India – An evolutionary cospectral coherence approach," Working Papers 2014-68, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    15. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Pierre Perron, 2010. "A sequential procedure to determine the number of breaks in trend with an integrated or stationary noise component," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 305-328, September.
    16. Esteve, Vicente & Navarro-Ibáñez, Manuel & Prats, María A., 2020. "Stock prices, dividends, and structural changes in the long-term: The case of U.S," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    17. Wilson, E.J, 2005. "Foodgrain Price Policies in India: The Effects on Foodgrain Production and Rural Poverty 1951-2001," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 5(3).
    18. Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir & Mehmet Balcilar & Aysit Tansel, 2012. "Are Labor Force Participation Rates Really Non-Stationary? Evidence from Three OECD Countries," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1223, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    19. Dimitrios Dadakas & Christos Karpetis & Athanasios Fassas & Erotokritos Varelas, 2016. "Sectoral Differences in the Choice of the Time Horizon during Estimation of the Unconditional Stock Beta," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-13, December.
    20. Chowdhury, Khorshed, 2007. "Are The Real Exchange Rate Indices of Australia Non-Stationary in the Presence of Structural Break?," Economics Working Papers wp07-05, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    21. Vicente Esteve & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & María A. Prats, 2013. "The present value model of U.S. stock prices revisited: long-run evidence with structural breaks, 1871-2010," Working Papers 1305, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    external sector; structural breaks; cointegration; Latin America;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lde:journl:y:2018:i:88:p:51-76. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Carlos Andrés Vasco Correa (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deantco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.