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Are Labor Force Participation Rates Really Non-Stationary? Evidence from Three OECD Countries

  • Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin

    ()

    (Gazi University)

  • Balcilar, Mehmet

    ()

    (Eastern Mediterranean University)

  • Tansel, Aysit

    ()

    (Middle East Technical University)

This paper shows that the structural breaks are an important characteristic of the monthly labor force participation rate (LFPR) series of Australia, Canada and the USA. Therefore we allow for endogenously determined multiple structural breaks in the empirical specifications of fractionally integrated ARMA model. The findings indicate that contrary to the previous research the LFPRs of Australia, Canada and the USA are stationary implying that the informational value of the unemployment rates about the behavior of labor markets and the causes of joblessness are useful.

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 6776.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6776
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  3. Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir & Mehmet Balcilar & Aysit Tansel, 2011. "International Labour Force Participation Rates by Gender: Unit Root or Structural Breaks?," ERC Working Papers 1105, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Oct 2011.
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  9. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-87, July.
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  16. Gil-Alana, L. A. & Robinson, P. M., 1997. "Testing of unit root and other nonstationary hypotheses in macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 241-268, October.
  17. Robert F. Engle & Aaron D. Smith, 1999. "Stochastic Permanent Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 553-574, November.
  18. Jakob Madsen & Vinod Mishra & Russell Smyth, 2008. "Are Labour Force Participation Rates Non-Stationary? Evidence From 130 Years For G7 Countries ," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(2), pages 166-189, 06.
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  20. Patricia M. Anderson & Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 1997. "Trends in Male Labor Force Participation And Retirement: Some Evidence On The Role Of Pensions And Social Security In The 1970's And 1980's," NBER Working Papers 6208, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Clemente, Jesus & Montanes, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 1998. "Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 175-182, May.
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